Europeans Aren’t Betting On A Democratic Congress To Save Ukraine

European officials are resigning themselves to the fact that a Democratic victory in the midterms won’t rescue Ukraine from the Trump administration’s shift toward Russia.

Democratic leaders have vowed to investigate President Donald Trump’s recent pro-Moscow actions and pass legislation to bolster Ukraine on the battlefield. But five European officials involved in talks about Kyiv expect only modest gains if Democrats retake power — such as a restoration of satellite services and sped-up delivery of air defense missiles.

And they’re accepting the realization that even their biggest supporters in Congress won’t be able to force through the kind of game-changing assistance that would lead to a major realignment of American priorities or a surge in military aid.

“The general feeling is that it would come as a relief, but how the U.S. government will function remains a question mark,” said a European official. “I guess we’ve seen it all.”

Even small moves won’t carry any real weight unless Democrats win majorities in both chambers of Congress next month. Their real oversight authority wouldn't kick in until early next year when the new House and Senate sessions begin, giving Trump months of freedom to do as he sees fit with Ukraine. They’d also need to prioritize Kyiv over a lengthy list of domestic priorities intended to unravel Trump’s decisions.

"There are multiple paths forward for Congress,” said a Democratic congressional aide, who like others, was granted anonymity to discuss internal conversations. But it requires “those members of Congress who claim to be outraged by Trump’s pro-Putin agenda to join Democrats in doing so.”

Lawmakers are even admitting publicly that they would face daunting obstacles to swaying Trump.

“Winning the elections is a good first step, but it's going to be insufficient” to force a turnaround on U.S. policy towards Ukraine, said House Armed Services Committee ranking member Adam Smith (D-Wash.), in a Tuesday interview on CNN.

The White House said the president is just trying to end the bloodshed of a full-scale war grinding through its fourth year. “The president and his team remain committed to continuing to play a constructive role in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine,” according to a statement. “The Democrats have no agenda to improve the lives of the American people, just plans to baselessly obstruct President Trump’s agenda and reverse his progress.”

Europe is grappling with its own political struggles, which could affect support for Kyiv. Some of the continent’s biggest powers are also set to face major political tests in 2027. Far-right French leader Marine Le Pen stands atop polls for the country’s presidential election in April, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz — one of the continent’s most prominent Ukraine backers — is among the least popular leaders in Europe. “Europeans are not betting their money” on Democratic victories fueling a stronger Ukraine policy, said a second European official. “Europeans are focused much more on getting the right decision made before big elections, including in France.”

Broad bipartisan support on Capitol Hill for arming Ukraine and penalizing Russia for its 2022 invasion has produced few results in recent years. Lawmakers haven’t enacted a major aid package for Ukraine since Trump’s return to office. And the little progress they have made — major bipartisan sanctions legislation targeting Moscow’s energy sector — was just gutted by Trump’s decision to waive most restrictions.

Democrats still see some smaller opportunities.

“[A Democratic majority] actually does change things,” said Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), ranking member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, at the Warsaw Security Conference this month. “It means that aid packages move not in nine months, but in nine days or nine weeks. And the message is very different … but it takes a while for our legislature and process to grind tangible things.”

Democrats may find a window of opportunity in following up on the sanctions measure, named after the late Russia hawk and former Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking member Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) last week introduced legislation intended to block Trump from entering into a deal with Moscow to buy diesel fuel. That bill also would mandate sanctions on Russian energy that the president waived, in response to Democratic concerns with the original Graham bill.

Himes said in a joint statement with Meeks and Smith this week that they also supported a “fix” to the law that would curb the president’s ability to waive sanctions, although it’s certain to face White House pushback.

Others are eyeing a different approach. Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee — should they reclaim control — intend to start notifying the companies involved in importing Russian diesel into the U.S. that the arrangement is illegal, according to a Senate Democratic aide.

The panel intends to instruct those companies, including Elon Musk’s SpaceX, to preserve documents related to the deal that could prove informative to future congressional investigations, the aide said.

European officials are hopeful for small wins such as those. They contend that a Democratic Congress would be tougher on Russia at a time when military officials are increasingly worried about the Kremlin targeting NATO territory with drones and cyberattacks. And they’re eager for any efforts to limit Putin’s influence in the U.S.

“I don’t think anyone believes we will see a return to levels under Biden,” said a third European official. “Rather we hope for a change in the political position with a much less accommodating stance.”