Gop Defense Hawks Break With Trump Ahead Of The Midterms

President Donald Trump may have finally alienated the faction key to delivering his colossal defense budget: Republican hawks.

The president will need almost unanimous support from Senate and House Republicans to enact his $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget after the midterm elections, especially if the GOP is about to lose one or both chambers of Congress. But Trump’s recent receptiveness to Russia — including allowing the sale of Russian diesel fuel, waiving sanctions on Moscow and the still-unexplained slowdown of Ukraine’s satellite defenses — has alarmed the very people pushing for more military spending. And they warn that his agenda won’t survive if the embrace of Moscow continues.

Just a handful of defections could jeopardize Trump’s entire defense agenda. This leaves hawks who want the White House to change course on Russia in an unusually powerful position. It also sends an early warning signal to the administration that some GOP lawmakers are ready to push back if they don’t get what they want.

"The administration says they want a supplemental, they want a reconciliation bill, they want funding for the ballroom; and it's like, I don't see why we should do it,” said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a retiring hawk who has clashed with the administration on national security issues. “He can't even see Russia as our adversary … Why do I want to fund his agenda? And I think other people feel the same way.”

That broadside followed a stern warning this week from Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), chair of the panel that oversees Pentagon funding, who argued in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that Trump’s priorities hinge on a tougher posture on Russia.

“Passing this agenda will require working with Republicans who know the difference between the good guys and the bad guys,” McConnell wrote. “Ending the obeisance to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin may be table stakes for the end-of-year legislation. The president should plan accordingly.”

The administration has hinged its record defense budget to a party-line process called reconciliation. This would allow Republicans in Congress to add $350 billion to a $1.15 trillion defense base budget, despite objections from Democrats.

Democrats are expected to win at least one chamber next week, which means Republicans have only a few weeks before the current Congress ends to enact a supersized Pentagon budget or other Trump priorities. But the president’s light touch with Putin, and his harder line with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is threatening to unwind an already tenuous GOP coalition.

"I expect guardrails” on what the administration can do in a potential party-line bill, said a Senate Republican, who was granted anonymity to speak frankly ahead of the midterms. The senator didn’t specify what those would entail.

The White House said Trump only wanted to end a years-long war in Ukraine.

“The United States continues to play a constructive role in speaking to both sides in working towards bringing the war to an end,” it said in a statement. “We are the only country in the world that can play that role.”

Lawmakers in both parties strongly support assisting Ukraine and penalizing Russia. While they have done little to advance large aid packages for Kyiv since Trump’s return to the White House, Congress overwhelmingly passed Russia sanctions legislation in September.

But Trump has undercut those efforts. Less than a month after signing the measure — named for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, an ally of the White House and vocal Russia hawk — Trump waived the new sanctions.

Top GOP defense hawks still want a major hike in spending to modernize the military and compete with China and Russia, even if it doesn’t reach Trump’s record-breaking figure. But efforts toward that goal — seen as a long shot even when Trump first proposed it — have stalled on Capitol Hill. Partisan fights have halted the annual appropriations process, along with GOP-only efforts to enact even more spending.

Should Republicans lose power in next week’s elections, they’ll have less than two months to determine whether to secure more Pentagon funding — and wrangle the votes for it.

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), a member of the Armed Services Committee, said he interpreted McConnell's critique as “a positioning statement" ahead of a post-election clash on military spending. But he noted uncertainty around the agenda until the polls close.

"We need to get past next Tuesday, then put together a reconciliation package that can get 50 yes votes," Cramer said. "Members will have lots of leverage to shape the bill with the pressure of a campaign behind us."

Many Republicans, including McConnell and Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine), have predicted for months that a fresh reconciliation package won’t pass muster. McConnell, who has endorsed Trump’s $1.5 trillion goal, has argued that the defense increases will only be sustainable if they’re achieved through the annual appropriations bill rather than a one-time, partisan cash injection like Republicans’ megabill last year.

And Democrats are prepared to end Trump’s dreams of another military budget buildup should they emerge victorious.

“The hope is we can do what we did last January where the adults in the room … put together an agreement and fund an appropriations bill that is reasonable,” said Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, in an interview with Substack publication The Contrarian. “But keep in mind, Republicans are asking for $1.5 trillion for defense. No Democrat's going to support that.”