Gop Electoral Worries Shift To Miami’s Mayoral Runoff

MIAMI — Republicans may not have to wait long for their next opportunity for soul-searching and midterm panic, thanks to next week’s Miami mayoral runoff.

The GOP is bracing for a possible loss in one of the state’s remaining blue areas — but in an office Republicans have held for nearly 30 years. It would come as a blow in a state President Donald Trump calls home, and in a city where he plans to build his future presidential library. The contest in Miami is set for just one week after Republicans faced a close special election in a Tennessee House race that Trump previously won by 22 points.

“It’s a tough district,” Evan Power, chair of the Republican Party of Florida, said of what he called “Kamala district” Miami. “My expectation is, it probably doesn’t perform for Republicans, but we have to do what we have to do, fight in every place.”

The nominally nonpartisan race has come down to a Dec. 9 runoff between candidates from each major party who defeated 11 others Nov. 4. With early voting kicking off Friday, Democrat Eileen Higgins, a former county commissioner, appears to have an edge in vote-by-mail support against Republican Emilio González, a Trump-endorsed former city manager.

Having notched a single-digit loss in this week’s Tennessee race, Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin says the party is pivoting to be “laser focused” on Miami. “The energy is on Democrats’ side and the DNC is all-in support Eileen Higgins from now until Election Day,” he said.

Even Gov. Ron DeSantis, who also endorsed González, called the results in Tennessee "a big warning sign," saying it showed Republicans may not enjoy the level of support they’ve had in the last few cycles, including in Florida.

"This was a midterm-level turnout, and you had a 13-point underperformance from a year ago. … ‘26, I think, is going to be a little more challenging for Republicans,” DeSantis said, adding: “If I was advising someone who was running, I'd say, ‘You cannot bank on 2022 levels of Republican support.’"

Democrats have reason to feel bullish about Miami. Unlike the district in Tennessee, Trump lost the city of Miami narrowly to Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, even as he won the far more populous surrounding county by 11 points.

In the Nov. 4 race, Higgins won 36 percent of the vote and was the top vote-getter in all five of the city’s commission districts. While González came in second with 19 percent of the vote, former city Commissioner Ken Russell — also a Democrat — was around 700 votes behind González.

Higgins was a county commissioner for eight years in a district that included the downtown area before running for mayor — a benefit in a runoff expected to have minuscule turnout, especially in an off-year cycle. Since September, Higgins’ campaign and Democrats have outspent González by around 19-to-1 on TV ads, according to the ad tracking firm AdImpact.

The González campaign has maintained the race is close, noting one-quarter of mail-in voters have been independents who’ve leaned Republican in recent cycles and pointing to a poll by the supportive Mission Miami political committee showing González has closed in on Higgins’ lead with about one-third of voters undecided.

Florida Republicans are doubling down in the final days, with RPOF saying it’s contributing $100,000 toward TV ads. Florida Chief Financial Officer Blaise Ingoglia sponsored and moderated a 3,500-person tele-town hall with González, and Lt. Gov. Jay Collins joined him for a pre-Thanksgiving appearance. On Friday, the Miami-Dade County GOP is holding an event with González at the famous Versailles Cuban restaurant in Little Havana alongside GOP Sen. Rick Scott and Rep. María Elvira Salazar. Former state House Speaker Paul Renner, who's running for governor, also joined González at Versailles Thursday morning.

“What we saw in Tennessee is a wake-up call for the Miami mayoral race,” said Angie Wong, a Republican executive committeemember in Miami. “In a deep-red district Republicans have long regarded as safe, heavy early voting and mail-in turnout nearly erased the GOP’s historic advantage, and only a last-minute push secured the seat. We have to make sure Miami does not turn back into a blue city.”

Democrats, meanwhile, are fired up by a wave of big wins nationwide in November. This weekend, prominent statewide Democrats are helping Higgins turn out the vote, including state Sen. Shevrin Jones of Miami Gardens, Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, and gubernatorial candidates former Rep. David Jolly and Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings.

The Florida Democratic Party is hoping a win can reinvigorate Democrats in the once-swing state. Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said on a phone banking call Tuesday that a win would “not only bring so much energy back to the state of Florida, but show what is possible when we have great candidates” and volunteers.

Power and Kevin Cooper, who chairs the Miami-Dade GOP, stress that Republicans ultimately won in Tennessee on Tuesday, with Power dismissing Higgins as a “radical leftist.” The county party has pointed to past comments Higgins made on cashless bail and a Miami New Times story from 2018 when she talked about how an anti-death penalty event held by the brother of the Unabomber “sparked a change in me” about the issue.

"Tuesday’s results show that our national strategy is working: When we communicate our message and the results we have produced, people agree,” Cooper said. “We are working alongside our state and federal partners to mobilize Republican voters and deliver a big win yet again next week.”

Asked about the criticisms, Christian Ulvert, Higgins’ campaign adviser, said RPOF “misrepresent the facts.” He noted Higgins voted to reject bail reform and pointed to endorsements from police and firefighters. “The turnout in Miami shows continued enthusiasm for Commissioner Eileen Higgins and reaffirms the momentum we saw during the November 4 election,” he said.

Martin also accused González of supporting Trump’s “toxic agenda,” pointing to his past work on the Trump transition team and as a founder of Veterans for Trump.

Despite some intense political attacks, both candidates represent a change from the status quo of Miami politics, which has for decades been subsumed by dynasties, shouting and corruption. Higgins and González have calm demeanors and address each other cordially, hugging warmly at the end of debates.

Higgins, a mechanical engineer and former Peace Corps director in Belize, is unapologetically technocratic, running a campaign focused on the nuts and bolts of how local government can work better and faster to relieve affordability concerns. González, a veteran and senior adviser at an asset management firm, emphasizes the need to fight overdevelopment and eliminate property taxes for primary homes, saying he wants his Tallahassee and Washington relationships to benefit the city.

The current mayor, Francis Suarez, is flashier than they are. And while Higgins and González often acknowledge Suarez deserves credit for getting Miami to the next level, they also say the city’s growth has left too many locals behind.

“We can and must be better as a city,” González said in a "Miami Unveiled" podcast interview with POLITICO and co-hosts Fred Menachem and Eugenio Robaina. “We can — and better — take care of our residents. … We need to bring the rest of the city along with us as we become that global city, that progressive city, that economic capital of the hemisphere.”

Gary Fineout contributed to this report.