House Republicans’ Midterm Silver Lining: Money

A silver lining for House Republicans facing an increasingly grim midterm cycle: They’ve got money.

Democrats are still raking in big hauls and are outpacing the GOP in most key Senate races, despite having an uphill battle to flip the chamber. But in the far more competitive House map, vulnerable Republicans are also raising millions of dollars, creating relative parity in the most competitive battlegrounds — a marked difference from past cycles like 2018, when Republicans were outraised by Democrats in most competitive House districts.

That year, 36 of the top 50 House fundraisers were Democrats, according to FEC data. So far this cycle, top fundraisers are split roughly evenly between the two parties. Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) — the only two Republicans seeking reelection in districts won by Kamala Harris in 2024 — are among the top fundraisers of any vulnerable incumbents of either party, respectively bringing in $6.7 million and $5.4 million so far this cycle.

“In 2018 we had a ton of candidates who hadn't run competitive races in many, many years, and so not only were you getting their campaigns up to tip top shape, but you were teaching them how to raise money in the modern era,” said Matt Gorman, a Republican strategist who was with the National Republican Congressional Committee at the time.

While Republicans’ digital fundraising still doesn’t match Democrats’ operation, they have built it up substantially compared to a few cycles ago. Republicans still rely heavily on large donors, but they’ve developed a network of joint fundraising committees that enable the party to direct those donors to the highest priority swing districts.

“Republicans knew they needed to find a way to support these candidates, which are our majority makers,” Gorman said. “And it can't just have all the money flowing to the base. We need to make sure these guys who are winning in tough districts are actually the ones getting a ton of the money.”

Democrats still raise more money in aggregate, and they’ve also put up especially strong numbers in a swath of redder seats outside the core House battlefield. That could help the party as it seeks to expand the map in a wave year.

“People are pissed, motivated, and eager to reject Republican rule over their failure to lower costs, and Democrats’ massive fundraising hauls highlight the broad base of support our Frontliners and challengers have,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Viet Shelton.

Ten candidates in districts the DCCC is seeking to target outraised Republican incumbents in the first quarter, while only one Republican challenger — Tano Tijerina, who is challenging Rep. Henry Cuellar in Texas’ 28th District — outraised a Democratic incumbent.

That suggests Republicans are going to be playing a lot more defense than offense this cycle. But they might be better positioned in seats they are defending this cycle. House GOP incumbents in particular have announced strong hauls, keeping them ahead of or within striking distance of their Democratic challengers.

“Democrats used to count on a cash advantage to hide their radical policies from voters, but that crutch is now gone,” NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella said in a statement. “This all points to the fact that this cycle is not a repeat of 2018, and Republicans are well-positioned to defy history and grow our majority in Congress.”

One factor boosting Republicans’ money this cycle has been their widespread use of joint fundraising agreements. The largest group, Speaker Mike Johnson’s Grow The Majority, has transferred an average of $675,000 so far this cycle to members of the NRCC’s Patriot Program for vulnerable incumbents. For a handful of those members, that has accounted for more than 15 percent of their total fundraising this cycle.

Left out are a handful of Republicans in deeper-red districts that the DCCC has named as targets but the NRCC has not put in its incumbent protection program. Democrats have built up substantial fundraising advantages in a few of those districts, including Tennessee's 5th District, which Trump won by 18 points.

Republicans’ capitalization on joint fundraising committees reflects the two parties’ different approaches: Grow the Majority has raised $83 million since the start of last year from just over 1,300 individual contributors, according to a POLITICO review, with an average donation size of roughly $62,000.

Democrats have a smattering of joint fundraising committees too, but none that have raised that kind of money. Instead, the party relies more on online giving from millions of small donors who are often repeat givers, creating sustainable fundraising for candidates as the cycle continues.

But breaking into the online donation space is an uphill climb for candidates without existing donor lists or strong name recognition. The top House fundraisers outside of party leadership are incumbents with strong brands, led by Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.).

Most of the top-raising Democratic challengers so far this cycle are repeat candidates with both name ID and donor lists. Rebecca Cooke in Wisconsin’s 3rd District, JoAnna Mendoza in Arizona’s 6th District and Christina Bohannan in Iowa’s 1st District have all raised more than $5 million as they seek rematches of 2024 races they narrowly lost. For newer candidates, it’s a steeper climb.

“The candidates who need money the most — who are challengers in Trump districts — are from a business perspective in by far the worst position to reach that marketplace of 10 million donors,” said Liam Kerr, co-founder of the Democratic group WelcomePAC, which rolled out a program earlier this month aiming to help raise money for Democrats in competitive seats.

Candidate fundraising in many competitive districts is still likely to be dwarfed by outside spending: The Congressional Leadership Fund, which supports House Republicans, announced a $153 million preliminary ad buy targeting competitive districts this week; its Democratic counterpart, House Majority PAC, pledged $272 million in ad reservations of its own.

Other potential players include Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC, which had nearly $350 million cash on hand at the end of March, and moneyed interest group super PACs, such as groups linked to cryptocurrency and AI, that have accumulated tens of millions of dollars and are already spending in congressional primaries.

But campaign cash still matters: Candidates have direct control over how it is used, and campaigns get lower rates than super PACs on television ads.