How The Gop’s Fraud Crackdown Could Impact The Midterms

Republicans have found their health care message for the midterms: fraud.

The White House and Congress have taken big public steps in recent months to highlight what they call rampant fraud in several blue states, taking action after YouTuber Nick Shirley went viral last year exposing fraudulent Medicaid providers in Minnesota.

Vice President JD Vance and Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz are taking high-profile roles in the fight. Vance kicked off a new fraud task force this spring and swore in a new assistant attorney general whose main task is focusing on fraud. Oz has released a drumbeat of viral videos on CMS’ efforts to combat fraud and launched probes across several states.

In Congress, several House committees have launched their own investigations, asking 10 states to provide answers on their fraud guardrails and examining California hospice fraud.

The looming question: Will the all-hands Republican fraud crackdown translate to votes at a time when Americans are laser-focused on the high cost of living, including hiked Obamacare premiums?

Republicans argue it will help shift the spotlight off complaints about health care affordability during Trump’s first year in office, as well as counter Democratic attacks over the more than $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts in last year’s One Big Beautiful Big Act, which polls show are also unpopular.

The Medicaid reforms, which include expanded work requirements, were “focused on … trying to address fraud, such as integrity checks,” said Energy & Commerce Chairman Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) on March 17 after a contentious hearing on the issue. “We are seeing the fraud that we are trying to solve.”

Guthrie said voters want to see it addressed.

“I always say good governance is good politics and addressing fraud is good politics,” he said.

But messaging on fraud may be unlikely to sway voters, several strategists and experts say.

“Cracking down on fraud can help Republicans reinforce a message of accountability and stewardship, but it’s not a substitute for addressing what voters care most about — crushing health costs,” said Joel White, a GOP health strategist and president of Horizon Government Affairs, in a statement. “Unless it’s paired with a clear plan to lower costs, anti-fraud efforts are unlikely to outweigh those concerns in 2026.”

The case for why it could work

Republicans counter with polling that shows the fraud crackdown could appeal to Trump voters that aren’t likely to turn out in a midterm election when the president himself is not on the ballot.

“The voters Republicans need to win the midterms in the House are angry about fraud,” said Jonathan Ingram, vice president of policy and research for the conservative think tank Foundation for Government Accountability, in an interview.

The foundation conducted a poll released in January of low-propensity Trump voters — those who voted for Trump in 2024 but didn’t vote at all in 2022 — that showed 85 percent support efforts to combat waste, fraud and abuse. Another 61 percent of those voters say the government must do more to combat welfare fraud.

Other polling by the think tank has shown voters connect the dots that fraud leads to higher costs, Ingram said.

“Every dollar that taxpayers spend on someone ineligible… is not eligible to fund those with disabilities,” he said.

Republicans also point to Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s decision to not run for a third term as proof that the administration's messaging on fraud is working. Walz’s administration took several actions to combat fraud in 2025, including shuttering a program that used Medicaid funds to help with housing services.

The fraud, which was perpetrated by some members of the Somali immigrant community, triggered a massive immigration sweep across the state, which led to the fatal shootings of two Americans by ICE officers.

In a dramatic, unprecedented move, CMS proposed cutting more than $2 billion in future Medicaid payments to the state because of noncompliance. The penalty is on hold after the agency approved Minnesota’s action plan to prevent future fraud.

One of the key races in the state is zeroing in on the issue.

Minnesota Republican Senate candidate Michele Tafoya, a former broadcast sports journalist, has highlighted fraud in her campaign for an open seat.

“Minnesotans are fed up. This was kept from them and then as it started to come out, they got more and more frustrated,” she said during an interview on March 5 on Fox News. “I think it is really driving people to the polls this November.”

Tafoya’s campaign did not return a request for comment.

‘Wind is in their face’

But while others acknowledge that fighting fraud has often been a popular GOP issue, they are skeptical it will sway many voters at a time when Americans are fixated on the rising cost of living.

“It doesn’t have as direct of an impact on your own premiums if you get insurance from the private sector or an ACA exchange plan,” said Avik Roy, a health policy expert and chair and co-founder of the free market think tank Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity. “The real question is … who has the most relevant credibility on the question of rising health costs. I don’t think either party has done great on it.”

Democrats and aligned groups seized on health care as a key affordability issue after Republicans failed to extend enhanced tax credits for Affordable Care Act plans that expired last year.

They began pounding the GOP on the Medicaid cuts as soon as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was passed last spring. A January poll from the New York Times and Siena University found that 56 percent of respondents somewhat or strongly oppose the Medicaid cuts. This gives Democrats an opening as they slam the cuts ahead of the midterms as an attack on health care access.

They don’t see fraud coming to the GOP’s rescue in the fall.

“The charges of fraud are not a winning hand when they have to defend the cuts,” said Brad Woodhouse, president and CEO of the progressive advocacy group Protect Our Care, which has fought against the Medicaid cuts, in an interview.

Republicans have responded that the reductions are targeted at curtailing fraud and waste in Medicaid. The law calls for new work requirements for recipients of the federal aid and cuts to tools states use to draw down more federal Medicaid dollars.

The major fraud push could appeal to voters who are already planning to back the GOP in November, but may not bring out those who are angry at the party about higher gas and health costs, Woodhouse said..

“I don't think this is going to move them towards Republicans in a political environment where the wind is in their face,” he said.

A poll released in January from health research organization KFF found 56 percent of respondents surveyed expect health costs to be less affordable this year. One in five say their health costs increased more quickly than other expenses like groceries.

The same poll showed that 35 percent of surveyed independents trusted Democrats to tackle health costs compared with 15 percent of Republicans.

Another chance

White said Republicans will need to do more beyond fraud crackdowns to win back voters on health.

“Republicans should highlight that they are protecting taxpayer dollars and trying to lower costs,” he said. “And that means getting health reforms enacted this year to drive premiums down by 2027.”

But it remains unclear what action Republicans will take this year.

The most likely path for additional reforms is via reconciliation, a spending bill that can avoid a filibuster in the Senate that takes 60 votes to break. A reconciliation package, however, must adhere to certain budget rules and could limit the scope of any reforms.

For example, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed the House last year as a reconciliation package with several reforms to crack down on eligibility in the ACA’s exchanges and Medicaid. However, those reforms. which included cutting Medicaid dollars to states that offer coverage from their own funds to undocumented immigrants, did not meet Senate rules because they were not strictly budgetary items and were stripped from the final package.

Republican leadership is considering reconciliation to help fund immigration enforcement and the Iran War, but it remains unclear what health policies could be included.

House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) recently told Axios he wants to include reforms that target waste, fraud and abuse. This includes legislation to crack down on privately-run Medicare Advantage plans that seek to get more money through making patients appear sicker than they actually are.

White suggested several reforms that could be included, such as enabling discounts from the website TrumpRx to apply to insurance out-of-pocket costs to reduce costs for consumers.

But talks on reconciliation remain nascent and Republicans have not finalized which policies they will focus on. There also remains hesitancy in the party to fully go after health care reforms after blowback due to other major reform efforts, such as the futile ACA repeal push in 2017 or the failure to extend enhanced ACA tax credits last year.

“A lot of Republicans have thought of health care as a kind of hot stove. They were burned and scared by that experience and lack confidence,” said Roy. “My argument is there are things that are consistent with your values that reduce the cost of health care.”