Israel Has Voted. Will Americans Care?

It may be weeks before we know who the next prime minister of Israel will be.

One thing is already clear: that person will face a tough challenge winning over the American public — or even getting Americans to pay attention.

Most American voters appear unconcerned with Israeli politics and tuned out of a political campaign viewed in Israel as among the most important in the country’s history, according to exclusive data gathered by The POLITICO Poll in advance of Israel’s Oct. 27 election.

The poll is a sharp reality check on hopes that the Israeli election could help reset U.S.-Israel relations and ease tensions related to Gaza and the war in Iran. Initial exit polls from Israel showed a drop in support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition but no immediate clarity on who would form the next government.

Among U.S. voters, the poll suggests any new Israeli leader is likely to be greeted not with open arms or jeers, but rather with shrugging indifference.

The POLITICO Poll, conducted by the London-based firm PF Global, found that Americans view Israel’s military campaign in Gaza in largely negative terms. Only 1 in 5 said they saw the campaign as justified, whereas approximately half — 48% — either said that the Israeli campaign in Gaza was never justified or that it had initially been justified before going too far.

On nearly all other matters related to Israel, most Americans signaled ambivalence or ignorance — including their opinion of Netanyahu.

More people viewed Netanyahu negatively than positively, by a margin of 29% to 22%. Yet nearly half of Americans said either that they had no opinion of Netanyahu (20%) or that their view of him was neither positive nor negative (28%).

About two thirds of Americans said they did not know Israel was having an election.

The exception to American apathy came among people who described themselves as progressive Democrats, a majority of whom said they disapproved of Netanyahu and the current Israeli government. Fully 75% of progressives said that Israel’s campaign in Gaza was not justified now or had never been justified.

Netanyahu’s opponents in Israel and some supporters of Israel in the United States have looked to the current Israeli election as a potential opportunity to improve relations between the two countries and rebuild the bipartisan coalition that supported Israel in Washington for decades.

Backlash against the Gaza war has fueled political battles in the U.S., particularly in the Democratic Party, where progressives hold considerable influence. Far-left candidates hostile to Israel triumphed in a string of high-profile primary elections this year, and in July more than 100 House Democratsvoted to cut off aid to Israel in a symbolic repudiation of the Netanyahu government.

A number of prominent Democrats have openly rooted for Netanyahu’s demise, hoping that his ouster could help move the party beyond divisions rooted in the Gaza war.

In an interview published Tuesday with POLITICO’s “On the Road With Jonathan Martin,” New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said her job would be “a lot easier” if Netanyahu were no longer prime minister of Israel.

A Democrat who represents America’s largest Jewish community, Hochul has confronted a deep rift in her party between anti-Israel activists on one side, and moderates and Jewish leaders who are critical of Netanyahu but supportive of the Jewish state.

Hochul said she wanted to see Israel led by “people of goodwill” who would pursue both Israel’s security and the creation of “a safe Palestinian state.”

“As long as Netanyahu is sitting there, that is not in his interest to do that,” Hochul said. “It’s just not, and it won’t happen.”

The POLITICO Poll found that Americans were split along partisan lines on which party they trusted more to combat antisemitism, with 36% saying they trusted Democrats more and 30% favoring Republicans.

No major political leader in Israel appears to be in a strong position to shore up Israel’s political support in the United States.

Asked how it would affect their view of Israel if the country changed government and Netanyahu were no longer prime minister, 22% of Americans said it would improve their view of Israel, compared with 10% who said it would change their opinion of Israel for the worse.

The rest said they didn’t know or that it would not affect their opinions at all.

Gadi Eisenkot, the most prominent opposition politician, was unknown to 65% of Americans. Just 15% said they had heard of Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israeli military.

More than 60% of Americans said they had also not heard of the Israeli politicians Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Avigdor Lieberman.

Even Netanyahu himself, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister and an intensely polarizing figure in his country and on the global stage, stirs strong feelings only from only a limited share of the U.S. electorate.

Only a minority of Americans said it would affect their view of a U.S. political candidate if that person identified as a supporter of Netanyahu. Most people said it would have no impact on their views or they did not know what effect it would have.

The outlier group was progressive Democrats. Among these voters, 44% said they would be much less likely to vote for a candidate who expressed support for Netanyahu.