It’s Boom Times For Trump’s Economy. Especially If You’re Rich.

President Donald Trump’s economy has exceeded expectations in his first year back in office. Mainly for America’s wealthiest households, that is.

The top 10 percent of U.S. earners spent $20.3 trillion through the first half of 2025 — nearly matching the $22.5 trillion shelled out by everyone else, according to the Royal Bank of Canada. That splurge has been primed by a buoyant stock market, elevated real estate prices and solid wage gains for the wealthy. Bank of America says its top account holders saw take-home pay climb 4 percent over the last year, while income growth for poorer households grew just 1.4 percent.

That spending power has kept Trump’s economy humming. The Commerce Department on Tuesday reported that the U.S. grew at an eye-popping rate of 4.3 percent during the third quarter, thanks to a surge in personal consumption, which the president labeled as a sign the “Trump Economic Golden Age is FULL steam ahead.”

But the robust numbers mask the extent to which the wealthy are driving growth. And while business leaders from Manhattan to South Florida are bullish on the outlook — “It’s the Roaring ’20s here in Palm Beach County,” said Douglas Evans, the president of the Palm Beach Chamber of Commerce — that view is not shared by most voters.

In survey after survey, a majority of Americans say they’re straining under the pressure of rising living expenses and a softening job market. The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston says low-income consumers have “substantially” higher levels of credit card debt than they did before the pandemic.

Even as growth and asset prices soar, Trump’s approval ratings are sagging. For some of his allies, that’s baffling.

“I’m mystified by the whole argument about affordability. I just can’t quite get my arms around it because it’s a really, really strong economy right now,” said economist Stephen Moore, a former Trump adviser who has aided the administration in its messaging. “If the trends continue as they have over the last six months, it’s going to be harder and harder for the Democrats to sustain this narrative that it’s not a good economy.”

To be sure, many of the traditional hallmarks of a broadly healthy economy are there. Business is booming for Wall Street banks and law firms, with investors plowing hundreds of billions of dollars into risky artificial intelligence startups that have minted a new crop of billionaires. By one estimate, merger and acquisition activity will hit $2.3 trillion in 2025 — a 49 percent jump over last year’s tally, with the benefits disproportionately flowing to high-net-worth investors. Corporate profits soared by more than $166 billion in the third quarter, up from the $6.8 billion increase reported during the previous three months.

Luxury hotels, Swiss watches and premium credit cards remain in strong demand despite the dour vibes coming from consumer surveys.

Richard Ramsden, a managing director and partner at Goldman Sachs who oversees its big bank investment research unit, told reporters earlier this month that the leaders of banks and asset management firms believe that the U.S. is on solid footing and that the narrative around the so-called K-shaped economy — which refers to when rich people’s finances are improving as poor people’s finances sink — “is kind of not backed up by the data.”

While wealthier consumers are spending more, BofA’s data found that spending growth among lower-income households has remained positive. Separately, while analysts at S&P Global expect consumer spending to moderate next year, they also say U.S. households “are sitting on multi-decade strong” balance sheets.

Administration officials are optimistic that the mood will improve if the president’s tax policies — including new deductions for businesses and hourly workers — lead to more hiring and higher take-home pay. And there’s hope that measures like the creation of Trump-branded investment accounts for newborns and the expansion of investment offerings for retirement plans will position working-class Americans to capture more of Wall Street’s upside.

Steve Bannon, who served as Trump’s chief strategist during his first term, said the president needs to “hammer relentlessly” on how the economy is expanding and that higher wages will come from supply-side tax cuts from his One Big Beautiful Bill, which passed in July.

“Robust economic growth, more and better jobs, raises — that’s what MAGA voted for, that’s what they expect,” Bannon said in an interview.

That message may ring hollow if the economy continues along its current trajectory.

Analysts are cautioning that consumer spending could soften if hiring remains slow and unemployment — which ticked up to 4.6 percent last month — continues to rise. The JPMorganChase Institute found that income growth was weak this year — particularly for older workers — and that balances remained flat among the bank’s account holders. The American Financial Services Association, which represents consumer credit firms, warned earlier this month that lenders are bracing for a deterioration in loan performance as subprime borrowers show signs of stress.

At the Yale CEO Conference in Manhattan last week, Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller — a finalist in the sweepstakes to become the next chair of the central bank — described how the financial divide has accelerated since the spring.

“Wages aren’t moving. The surpluses are gone. The bank accounts are closer to, like, day-to-day paychecks,” Waller, a former St. Louis Fed economist, told a roomful of corporate executives gathered at the Ziegfeld Ballroom.

“Everybody talks about how loose financial conditions [are]. They’re loose for everybody in this room. I guarantee it,” he said, referring to the ease with which high-end consumers can secure credit. “If you go out to the sort of Main Street, middle America that I’m from? These people don’t see cheap financing. They look at high mortgage rates, high car loans, high credit card rates. They’re not saying financing is cheap.”

Even so, Trump officials have been heartened by recent data showing meaningful wage growth for non-supervisory workers over the last year. And while sentiment has lagged, a stronger-than-expected holiday retail season — along with solid sales growth for large retailers — suggests Americans are still spending at a healthy clip.

Real wage growth will also accelerate if inflation continues its decline, said Joseph Lavorgna, a counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

“That — to me — is a recipe for a more broad-based, durable economy that’s not so fixated on the high end,” Lavorgna said.