Kelly’s Profile Rises As He Heads Toward Another Likely Victory Over Hegseth

A federal appeals court panel appears likely to reject Pentagon plans to punish Sen. Mark Kelly for advising troops to disobey illegal orders, another potential victory for the rising Trump administration foe and likely 2028 presidential candidate.

Kelly, a Navy veteran and former astronaut who has been a vocal critic of President Donald Trump and his military moves over the past year, faces a potential retirement demotion and a reduction in his benefits for comments that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has labeled “seditious.”

The saga has turned the Arizona Democrat into a high-profile opponent of the administration — and elevated his national standing as he “seriously" considers a White House bid.

Kelly has turned his fight with Trump into a fundraising windfall, raking in a staggering $25 million-plus over the last six months even though he's not on the ballot this year. And he’s leveraged the media attention into a megaphone while growing his online following. Regardless of how the appeals court rules, the case is likely to end up before the Supreme Court either just before the congressional midterms or in the months after, as candidates sharpen their 2028 message over Trump’s improper and potentially illegal use of the military.

Kelly and five other Democratic lawmakers last November released a video warning that the Trump administration was “pitting our uniformed military and intelligence community professionals against American citizens.” It also told troops to “refuse illegal orders” but did not specify any actions or instructions from Trump which crossed that line.

The Pentagon soon after the video’s release launched a probe into Kelly that led to a formal censuring by Hegseth. Military officials also launched a review process to determine whether his rank and retirement pay should be reduced for actions against the Defense Department.

A district judge’s ruling in February found the move amounted to imposing unconstitutional limits on political speech by retired service members, prompting Hegseth’s appeal.

The three-judge panel of the Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit on Thursday harshly questioned administration lawyers on the rationale for the Pentagon move, signaling they are unlikely to stray from the lower court ruling that blocked Hegseth’s bid to punish Kelly and concluded it amounts to a violation of the Democratic senator’s freedom of speech.

The judges also questioned whether Hegseth’s assertion that Kelly was sending mixed messages to troops held any legal weight.

“The text of the video, which I take to be really the fulcrum of this entire case, advises that service members have no obligation to obey unlawful orders,” said Judge Cornelia Pillard, an Obama appointee. “Nobody in the video says service members have a duty to disobey lawful orders.”

The Pentagon declined to comment on ongoing litigation. Kelly’s political operation did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

On the campaign trail, Kelly has amassed a war chest that has fueled talk of a presidential bid. He kicked off the year by hauling in roughly $13 million in the first quarter of 2026.

Kelly has said he’ll “seriously consider” mounting a candidacy in 2028. He was on the short list of running mates for Vice President Kamala Harris’ unsuccessful run against Trump in 2024. She eventually chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

“He’s got the backstory. He’s a hot commodity right now,” said Pete Giangreco, a longtime Democratic strategist who has worked on multiple presidential campaigns. “He’s done it in a way that has excited the base of the party but is also a talking point that can win a general election because this is about courage and standing up for the Constitution and making sure we have a military that is not politicized.”

Another Democrat in the video, Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, is also weighing a run for the party’s presidential nomination. Slotkin serves with Kelly on the Senate Armed Services Committee and is a former CIA analyst and Pentagon official.

Neither side has indicated they are backing down from the fight, signaling the court battle is likely to drag on past the next ruling.

The Justice Department has also pushed to indict Kelly and the other Democrats in the video. But DOJ officials failed to secure criminal charges from a grand jury against the lawmakers. All six of the lawmakers involved in the effort — Kelly, Slotkin and Reps. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.), Maggie Goodlander (D-N.H.) and Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.) — all served in military or national security roles.

Kyle Cheney contributed to this report.