Lawler Works To Sow Chaos In Democratic Primary For His Battleground House Seat

NEW YORK — Republican Rep. Mike Lawler has spent months trying to shape the Democratic primary in his closely watched battleground district. Whether he will succeed — and whether trying to handpick his opponent is a good idea — remains to be seen.

Lawler, who also serves as chair of the Rockland County GOP, has deep experience in political strategy and government. A former campaign manager, executive director of the state party and lobbyist, Lawler has used his deftness in the industry of politics to try and sow chaos in the primary.

He sent out a covert text message blast in April to local Democrats that attacked one of the two frontrunners, Army vet Cait Conley, as a “DC-connected insider.” The sender of the message — “Mike Lawler” — was only revealed when recipients replied “HELP.”

He also sued Effie Phillips-Staley, a left-leaning, longshot primary candidate in a bid to knock her off the ballot. Lawler’s legal challenge ultimately failed, but she was forced to sink campaign dollars into fighting the effort. The lawsuit even earned the attention of President Donald Trump on Truth Social, who endorsed Lawler while slamming Phillips-Staley.

And Lawler has repeatedly amplified a contested accusation from Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson, Conley’s top primary rival, that alleges the Army vet is linked to Trump’s deportation agenda because she works for two defense technology firms, including Primer AI, which says it works to “support DHS missions” on its website.

Lawler’s not alone in trying to influence Democratic contests. Around the country, PACs that appear to be backed by Republicans have gotten involved in Democratic primaries in places like Maine, New Jersey, Texas and California. But it’s unusual — if not unprecedented — for a candidate to take such a hands-on, tactical approach to influencing the opposing party’s primary.

“It's indisputable that he has made several attempts to meddle in the Democratic primary, both to create divisiveness and especially more recently to try to tear down Cait Conley,” said Suzanne Berger, chair of the Westchester Democratic Party, who is backing Conley in the primary.

“You could reasonably draw a conclusion from that, that he is most concerned about running against Cait, and would like to weaken her as much as possible.”

After Tuesday’s primary, the Democratic opponent for Lawler will be set, and the two will square off for one of the most competitive House seats in the country. Lawler is one of just three House Republicans to hold onto their seats in 2024 despite their districts voting for Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential election.

Largely spared from Lawler’s attacks in recent months has been Davidson, who once led in polling and fundraising, but has been surpassed by Conley in both. A recent poll found Conley 11 percentage points ahead of Davidson, with 28 percent of voters still undecided.

On Friday, Lawler took his involvement in the primary a step further. He posted a video without any caption on Instagram, Facebook and X of a woman who, to the viewer, appears to be a prototypical Gen-Z influencer or political streamer.

The woman speaks directly to the camera in front of a large microphone in a room glowing with LED-lights, telling the viewer that she’s going to “check the facts” on Conley’s work for Primer AI.

“The voters of NY-17 deserve a straight answer: What does Primer pay you to do, and why won't you tell us?” she says.

What Lawler doesn’t share with his audience is that the woman appears to be his 24-year-old digital director, Mackenzie O’Brien, and that the video was actually produced by his team — not clipped and reposted from a left-leaning influencer’s content.

In response to his involvement in the primary, the Democrats he has elevated — and attacked — have tried to use his meddling to propel their own campaigns.

“Mike Lawler should be worried, Donald Trump should be worried, because what this campaign will do is put people first,” Effie Phillips-Staley said after Trump’s TruthSocial post. Her campaign has also sought to fundraise off Lawler’s ballot access lawsuit.

Conley told POLITICO that Lawler’s focus on her proves she’s best positioned to beat him in November.

“As a veteran, I’m no stranger to winning high stakes, hard fights, and Mike Lawler knows that which is why he’s so desperate to not face me this November,” she said. “He’s beaten politicians but he’s never faced someone like me. The coalition we are building is ready for this fight — clearly Mike Lawler is not.”

Conley has said her work for the tech companies that has sparked criticism includes developing systems that protect people from terrorist attacks, has nothing to do with immigration and that her opponents are acting in bad faith to smear her.

Lawler’s desire to influence the primary outcome has also included direct action behind the scenes with key constituencies in the district, according to one person who spoke with POLITICO and was granted anonymity to speak freely.

The person, who is in the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community in Rockland County and in direct contact with its leadership, said one of Lawler’s staffers, Rafi Silberberg, has been calling ultra-Orthodox political leadership and asking them to encourage their community members to vote for Davidson.

Lawler did not respond to requests for comment about his efforts to influence the primary contest, including whether he instructed Silberberg to make the calls and why Davidson is seemingly his preferred candidate. Just hours after POLITICO reached out to Lawler’s team for comment, leadership from New Square, one of the key Hasidic communities in the district, announced Davidson as its preferred candidate.

Davidson’s campaign said she earned the endorsement on her own.

“Beth Davidson has earned endorsements from every corner of this district and so many of its diverse communities — the LGBTQ+ community, the disability community, communities of color, young people — because she has stepped up to lead and delivered results,” Ellen McCormick, Davidson’s campaign manager, said in a statement. “Winning support in Rockland's Jewish community is no different, and to devalue that work while also actively sowing division and distrust is unbecoming of anyone seeking to represent NY-17 in Congress.”

A look at Davidson’s campaign filings show her campaign contributed $10,000 to the Town of Ramapo Democratic Committee, where New Square and other Hasidic communities are located. Mona Montal, who serves as chair of the committee, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Democrats have also pointed to a super PAC that announced a nearly $1 million TV ad spend against Conley in the primary as further evidence that the GOP writ large is trying to hurt Conley’s chances.

Progressive Champions PAC, which registered with the Federal Election Commission last month and hasn’t yet disclosed its donors, drew suspicion from Democrats that it was a Republican-funded effort because it uses the same Alabama bank as another PAC with ties to Republicans that got involved in other Democratic primaries across the country.

It was enough to cause Davidson to declare publicly that she disavows the PAC, and drew the attention of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who lives in the district.

“As my fellow Democrats in New York’s 17th congressional district head to the polls to choose our nominee from a talented group of candidates, a dark money Republican group is trying to manipulate the outcome of this and other key primaries,” Clinton wrote on X.

Davidson’s campaign said in a statement that Lawler’s preferences in the primary were irrelevant to the campaign’s mission.

"We're not focused on what Mike Lawler wants,” said McCormick. “We're focused on the voters of NY-17, and they will decide on Tuesday night who they want to represent them in Congress next January."