Lindsey Graham's Death Will Kick Off A Breakneck Campaign For His Senate Seat

Lindsey Graham's sudden, unexpected death will kick off a rapid campaign to pick the next likely senator from South Carolina — with a full six-year term on the line to replace the longtime senator.

Graham was up for reelection in November, having just dispatched primary challenger Mark Lynch just over a month ago. He was set to face Democrat Annie Andrews, a doctor who fairly comfortably won the Democratic primary.

Republicans will now race to replace Graham on the November ballot in a special primary election in mid-August, according to state law.

In an interview with NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday morning, President Donald Trump said he was already considering who he might back in the race.

"I have somebody that I think would be great, but I don't want to say it now because it's just, you know, it's too soon with Lindsey," he said. "I don't want to even talk about anybody, but I do have somebody that I think is really good."

How will Republicans pick who succeeds Graham?

A special candidate filing period will open up on July 21 for Republicans interested in running for Graham's seat, and will remain open for a week, according to state law and the state Republican Party. A primary would be held on August 11, with a runoff if no candidate reaches 50 percent of the vote on Aug. 25.

The winner of that contest will face Andrews in November for a full, six-year term that would start in January of next year.

What happens to the seat in the meantime?

In the interim, Republican Gov. Henry McMaster will appoint someone to fill Graham's seat for the rest of the year.

State law is silent on how quickly McMaster must act, but generally governors move quickly to fill Senate vacancies.

He could take two paths: appoint a caretaker for the seat who would not serve beyond the rest of this year or give the appointment to someone running in the primary in hopes of boosting their campaign.

Who could get into the race?

Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette is seen as a top option for McMaster to appoint to temporarily fill Graham’s seat. She and the governor share a close relationship, but perhaps more important in the state’s deep-red conservative political environment, Evette also has Trump’s stamp of approval.

She ran for governor this year and was the first candidate to win Trump’s backing. But as her campaign lagged, the president also issued a late endorsement for the eventual winner, Attorney General Alan Wilson. The lieutenant governor could also reactivate her gubernatorial campaign’s infrastructure to begin quickly mounting a Senate primary bid.

A spokesperson for Evette did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The slate of recent failed gubernatorial candidates are also potential contenders in the snap election to fill Graham’s vacancy on the Republican ticket.

One of them, firebrand conservative Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) is already considering a bid, according to two people familiar with her thinking. She plans to begin polling for her exploratory bid this week, the people said. Mace finished fifth in this year’s gubernatorial primary.

And she’s not the only one in the Palmetto State’s Republican congressional delegation who is eyeing the seat: Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) is also interested in the seat, according to a person familiar with his planning, granted anonymity to share his thinking.

Mark Lynch, the self-funding Upstate South Carolina businessman who primaried Graham earlier this year and won 29 percent of the vote, is also considering a run, according to his spokesperson Noel Fritsch.

Will this seat be competitive in November?

Regardless of who Republicans land on as their nominee, they will likely be the heavy favorite in November.

Trump won the state by double-digit margins in his three runs for president, and prior to his death most election observers believed that Graham was on a glide path to another term.

The last marginally competitive Senate race was in 2020, when Graham faced off against future Democratic National Committee chair Jaime Harrison.

Harrison raised a prodigious amount of money, topping out at over $100 million for his campaign, but still ended up losing to Graham by 10 points.

Andrews, the current Democratic nominee, has raised a decent amount of money so far, collecting over $8 million since launching her bid.

But the race has not garnered significant national attention, and Democrats have several other better options to spend in in their quest to flip the Senate.

In a statement early Tuesday, Andrews mourned Graham's death. “I hope that South Carolinians will join me in setting partisanship aside and offering gratitude to Senator Lindsey Graham for his service to the great state of South Carolina,” she said.

Meredith Lee Hill and Cheyanne Daniels contributed to this report.