Michigan’s Messy Senate Race Spells Trouble For Dems In 2028

DETROIT — Abdul El-Sayed stood with his back to the concrete wall of a high-school gymnasium papered over with glossy campaign signs and declared an end to Democrats’ divisions.

The progressive Senate nominee was fresh off a rally with former President Barack Obama, the state’s Democratic ticket and some of its top officials. Minutes before, he’d stood on stage hand in hand with the commander in chief he once criticized and the staunchly moderate secretary of state who’s running to be the next governor. Now, he was ringed by rows of reporters who wanted to know: Did that show of solidarity prove the party was actually united?

“I think it should,” El-Sayed said.

But Michigan’s election results aren’t going to solve Democrats’ civil war. Instead, the conflict in the early primary state that’s pivotal to the party’s presidential ambitions is only intensifying.

Democrats’ fragile truce is shattering as El-Sayed and former primary rival Rep. Haley Stevens reignite their fraught feud in the closing days of a critical Senate contest riven by ideological, racial and ethnic tensions.

Progressives are pushing any El-Sayed win as a major victory, while moderates are planning to mine the margins for signs of weakness on the left. Some Black leaders have accused the party of relying on their votes while not doing enough to address their communities’ needs. Some Jewish voters who’ve balked at El-Sayed’s rhetoric and views on Israel worry their relationship with the party is fraying. And the party’s ongoing struggles to keep blue-collar white voters in the fold are again being tested in a state President Donald Trump won twice in three tries, even as his policies on trade and toward Iran make those voters much more winnable this year.

Democrats moved Michigan into their early primary window as they looked to build a slate of states that would better engage the party’s diverse voting blocs. But that diversity has created lasting tensions within the party here, from then-Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss in 2024 through a vicious 2026 Senate election. And win or lose Tuesday, those bitter feelings are an ominous sign for Democrats as they pivot to 2028.

“We are a state that has lots of different interests and a lot of people who want different things,” said Lansing Mayor Andy Schor, a Jewish Democrat who supported Stevens and has not endorsed El-Sayed. “We see a lot of fracturing within our party [over] what we want to see most in the country, and then how we bring it all together after the primary to get that person to win Michigan.”

Or, as Rep. Debbie Dingell, who helped push Michigan into the early primary window, put it: “I call it a process that is going to test candidates.”

Polls show El-Sayed and other Democrats with leads in the state, and more optimistic Democrats say Tuesday’s results could show the party expanding its tent.

“Abdul and I have chatted about this throughout the course of this campaign. It is possible for the Democratic Party to have both a moderate leader and a more liberal leader as he represents,” Jocelyn Benson, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, said in an interview on the sidelines of a Detroit Lions tailgate Sunday.

But Democrats can only pick one nominee in 2028, and Michigan will play a critical role both in the primary and in November.

“You can’t take any votes for granted,” said Pete Giangreco, a veteran of multiple Democratic presidential campaigns who is based in Michigan. “We still have to fight for votes from Black men, we still have to fight for Jewish and Muslim votes. We still have a problem with younger white men and blue-collar workers.”

The ideological splits on this year’s ticket will do little to affirm a sense of direction from Michigan Democrats, who helped progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) pull off a primary upset in 2016 then backed Joe Biden over Sanders in 2020.

Voters here undercut Biden — and then Harris — with the "uncommitted" movement over his Israel policy four years later, and the issue has remained a polarizing force in a state with sizable Arab and Jewish populations. While Muslim and Arab voters stayed home or flipped to the GOP last cycle, it’s Jewish voters who might this time around.

“There’s a lot of talk about it being a big tent party, but sometimes we worry the tent is maybe devolving into a circus and we’re going to be pushed out,” said David Kramer, a longtime Democratic fundraiser who chaired Stevens’ primary campaign and is voting for Republican Mike Rogers for Senate.

Democrats have been hammering Republicans over high costs as they scramble to woo back a diverse swath of working-class voters in the state who shifted right over economic concerns just two years ago — and who are now feeling further pinch as Trump’s trade war with Canada roils the border state’s economy and the Iran war continues to keep gas prices sky-high.

“Whether you are Black and struggling with the second or third job in Detroit or white and struggling with a second and third job in Escanaba, you're really worried about the same things,” El-Sayed told POLITICO ahead of a rally in Grand Rapids last weekend. “That is a big, broad coalition.”

But Michigan Democrats warn that even if the party recaptures some of those voters on Tuesday, there’s still critical work to do to hold onto them.

“The Jewish community, the Arab American community — but also rural voters, that’s a significant part of our party. Working-class families,” said Joe Tate, a Black state representative from Detroit who backed Stevens in the primary and is now supporting El-Sayed. “Our diversity is important. But with that, it’s going to take a lot of work.”

Adam Wren contributed to this report.