New York Democrats Are Looking Beyond The Battleground Districts

Amid a hot streak of overperformances across the country and President Donald Trump’s slipping approval rating, New York Democrats are wondering: Why not try to flip a seat that Trump won by 20 points?

Unpopular moves from the Trump administration now have Democrats in the Empire State putting their political capital into a race in deep-red terrain — the latest indicator of how bullish they feel heading into the midterms, which will determine control of the House.

Gov. Kathy Hochul recently touted how “optimistic” she is about flipping outgoing Rep. Elise Stefanik’s seat in the North Country, where dairy farmer Blake Gendebien has emerged as the top contender for the Democratic nod. Maryland Rep. Jamie Raskin, who campaigned with Gendebien, transferred $9,000 to him last month through his joint fundraising committee. And the two Republicans vying for the GOP nomination to replace Stefanik — sticker company executive Anthony Constantino and state Assemblymember Robert Smullen — are locked in what’s promising to be a bloody primary.

The legal threats and personal barbs coloring the GOP primary aren’t the only reasons the seat is intriguing for Democrats. Hochul pointed to conversations she had with conservative farmers in the district who expressed frustration about tariffs and immigration raids.

“I heard a lot of anger,” she said. “I was reflecting on that as a place that people would not expect us to have an opportunity to win, where I believe we do, because people are rejecting the policies that are driving up costs and making their lives miserable.”

It’s a seat that is by all means a reach — a conundrum that hovers over Democratic dreams in other GOP-held districts in the state too.

For one, it’s a costly gamble — especially when Democrats have a trio of vulnerable incumbents to protect and an expensive Republican-held district in New York City’s suburbs they’re trying to win. Significant national investment is also unlikely to pour into a seat that Democrats haven’t held in over a decade; Stefanik overperformed Trump in 2024, winning by a 24-point margin.

But recent Democratic performances, including a 25-point swing in a ruby red corner of Georgia and a state legislative win in Trump's hometown Florida district, have some contending it warrants a closer look.

Take Raskin. He said he’s been looking to support candidates who are “outside the strict ‘red to blue’ column” — and placed Gendebien squarely in that category.

“I’m somebody who doesn’t use public opinion polls; I don’t believe what the pundits have to say,” Raskin said. “I'm not criticizing the DCCC about this, because they obviously want to zero in on districts where the numbers are there. But when you're in that frame of mind, it's easy to be governed just by the objective statistics and numbers you see. Politics isn't just a science — it’s an art, too, and we cannot ignore the subjectivity of these candidates, because there are some remarkable candidates out there.”

Gendebien posted a strong fundraising haul in the first quarter of the year, raising around $600,000 and entering April with $2.5 million in the bank — one of the highest cash-on-hand amounts for a non-incumbent across the state. That money will be critical, especially if he’s facing off against Constantino, who has already spent millions of his own money in the primary. Smullen has the support of the state GOP, but last quarter reported raising $660,000 — thanks to a $500,000 personal loan — with only $960,000 on hand. (Another Democrat, Stuart Amoriell, is also in the running, but is largely self-funding his campaign and had less than $20,000 on hand.)

Republicans were quick to pour cold water on Democrats’ hopes.

“Tom Suozzi, Laura Gillen and Josh Riley won’t be happy to hear that resources will be diverted from their races for whatever Democrat fantasy this is,” Lydia Hall, a spokesperson for the House leadership-backed Congressional Leadership Fund, said in a statement.

Suozzi, whom national Republicans are targeting on Long Island, gave $4,000 to Gendebien through his leadership PAC last month, on top of a $1,000 contribution last year.

Stefanik’s seat, though, isn’t the only district that has Democrats mulling the map in deep-blue New York more closely.

Some see opportunity in other reach seats like Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’ district, which covers Staten Island and part of Brooklyn — and which Democrats unsuccessfully tried to get redrawn. And they’re keeping an eye on Rep. Nick LaLota, who occupies a Long Island district that has proven to be a consistently elusive target for Democrats. But, like Stefanik’s seat, nonpartisan election analysts currently rate LaLota and Malliotakis as safe bets for Republicans.

While LaLota is not currently on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s target list — like he was at this time during the last election cycle — there are indications that Republicans are bracing for a competitive race: American Action Network, the nonprofit aligned with House GOP leadership, recently boosted LaLota with an ad campaign praising him for “stopp[ing] the Democrats’ tax hike.” The incumbent also ran taxpayer-funded advertisements touting tax cuts he said he “helped enact.”

“With really great candidates, in a really good Democratic year, with Republican fundraising suppressed by people not feeling good about where Republicans are, it's possible that these races all become things where they emerge,” said Andrew Grossman of Battleground New York, a coalition of labor unions and progressive groups targeting LaLota’s seat. “Historically, the investment that people make comes in the fall in races like that, because opportunity shows up in odd places.”

Those Democratic candidates have a long way to go to prove their viability, though. Army veteran Chris Gallant, a political newcomer looking to challenge LaLota, raised about $120,000 with $72,000 on hand in the first quarter of the year — compared to the incumbent’s $3 million in the bank. Union electrician Allison Ziogas, a Democrat who entered the race against Malliotakis in March, has raised $85,000 and had $64,000 on hand. Malliotakis has raked in $580,000 with $2.6 million in her coffers. Other Democrats in the running for both seats raised even less.

But Ziogas has also attracted interest from outside the district, earning boosts from both New York Rep. Pat Ryan, a former battleground Democrat whom Republicans aren’t making a concerted effort against this year, and Illinois Rep. Nikki Budzinski. Ryan and Budzinski donated $1,000 and $4,000, respectively, from their affiliated committees.

For their part, Republicans are downplaying the significance of special elections across the country and argue that voters will attribute economic pain in the state to local Democrats rather than Trump. They’re also hopeful that Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who’s running against Hochul for governor, will prop up their down-ballot incumbents, especially on the crucial battleground of Long Island.

“I get the idea of wanting to expand the map, but it’s not gonna happen,” said GOP strategist Dave Catalfamo, a former adviser to ex-Gov. George Pataki. “There’s a large amount of unhappiness with what’s going on overseas and how that’s affecting gas prices. … By the time election season rolls around, that will have corrected itself.”

Maureen O’Toole, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, put it more bluntly: “Democrats have no shot.”

As of now, national Democratic groups are working from a much smaller electoral map of New York after flipping four seats two years ago. They’re just targeting Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, one of only a few Republicans in the country to win a seat that then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election. With more than $4 million at his disposal, Democrats will have to spend heavily to flip the seat, which could be a make-or-break for taking the majority.

But national groups aren’t completely ruling out expanding the map either.

“With plenty of time for races to develop, House Republicans shouldn’t assume their seats are safe anywhere — even in deep-red districts across the Empire State,” House Majority PAC spokesperson Katarina Flicker said in a statement. DCCC spokesperson Riya Vashi said that “Democrats are on offense” and “Republicans across the Empire State know they’re in deep trouble come November.”

“Scoff all you like, but the political environment at the time is a very powerful thing,” New York Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs said. “It could be a firm breeze or a full-on hurricane, and I think this year the Republicans are headed into a hurricane.”

Jason Beeferman contributed to this report.