Newsom Races To Lock In His Water Legacy

SACRAMENTO, California — Gov. Gavin Newsom has been working hard to wrap up his pet water projects before he leaves office in early January, but he’s facing some stubborn obstacles. How things shake out could shape his image as an executive of a major economy ahead of a likely 2028 presidential run.

A major new reservoir and a habitat restoration deal are at the top of the governor’s to-do list as he leans on state regulators. He’s also trying to advance a controversial, decades-old proposal to build a tunnel under the state’s Bay-Delta region to send more water south to farmers and cities.

On the campaign trail, the governor’s efforts are unlikely to win over many blue-leaning environmentalists, who worry his plans could harm endangered species. And the Central Valley farmers who stand to benefit the most from the new water projects don’t generally vote for Democratic presidential candidates anyway.

But Newsom’s allies and advisors do see a potential upside: For a politician whose legacy as governor is going to be colored by the state’s high housing and gas prices and persistent homelessness, the water projects offer evidence that he can govern in a difficult bureaucracy and deliver on difficult, critical initiatives — all while navigating threats from President Donald Trump, who has taken a keen interest in California’s water wars.

That is, of course, if he succeeds. Failure could dog him as he steps into the national spotlight. Anyone representing California wants to avoid taps running dry across the state as a matter of security, said Natural Resources Secretary Wade Crowfoot in an interview.

“In the winter of 2022, we had five million Californians under water rationing in the fourth largest economy on planet Earth, and we were planning, had we not had rains, to have over half of our state in water rationing,” Crowfoot said. “California's future relies in part on water security, and any governor that's representing California is going to work to ensure that.”

Race to the finish line

The governor has been working since 2022 to formalize a deal with water agencies that would trade billions of dollars in habitat restoration for greater flexibility for farms and cities that pump water from the sensitive Bay-Delta region.

Environmental groups have long opposed the plan because they prefer strict rules that keep water flowing downriver at key times for endangered species. But business groups have backed it because they say it would help stabilize unreliable water supplies during swings between drought and flood.

Now that deal is in trouble, and it couldn’t come at a more inopportune time.

Two the governor’s most important partners in the plan, the federal government and the Westlands Water District, the largest irrigation district in the Central Valley, are threatening to walk away after state regulators proposed more state oversight. Bureau of Reclamation Principal Deputy Commissioner Aubrey Bettencourt said the new version of the plan that Newsom is championing “disregards federal law, undermines negotiated certainty, and threatens the viability” of federal water operations in a letter last month.

Barry Nelson, a policy adviser with the nonprofit Golden State Salmon Association, says the threats expose a deeper problem: that Newsom’s idea won’t work. The governor’s original propsal included plans  for about $2.9 billion in funding over its first eight years, including roughly $1.4 billion from the state. But the funding and overall success depends on participation from the agencies and governments that signed on.

“We’re talking about the risk of the public providing billions of dollars for a program that is just a sham,” Nelson said.

Crowfoot, meanwhile, has said that state and federal water managers remain in talks over a resolution. He said he was “laser-focused” on getting the deal through as a priority for the administration. State water regulators are set to vote on the plan at the end of this week. 

Crowfoot is also in the final stretch of trying to execute another Newsom priority: a new reservoir in Northern California that would be the state’s largest in decades.

Both Newsom and Trump have been supportive of using millions in state and federal dollars to build the proposed Sites Reservoir. The developer, however, is already months behind schedule to secure a key permit from the state and lock in financial help from the cities and farmers that would ultimately use the water.

Newsom himself told state regulators to speed up the permitting process and allow the developer to divert more water from the Sacramento River, over the objections of environmental groups concerned the diversions could hurt endangered species of fish like Chinook salmon.

It was an unusual show of muscle by a governor who rarely intervenes in the workings of his state’s independent regulatory agencies. His intervention appears to have paid off: last month, regulators agreed to change the permit to allow the developer to pull more water from the river. The regulators are planning to vote to approve the permit in early November.

One big project that Newsom’s administration will hand to the next governor is a decades-old proposal to build a tunnel under the Delta to send more water south to cities and farms. Environmentalists and local communities oppose this idea, out of concern it will harm the ecosystem. Newsom pared down the project from two tunnels to one and pitched it as an important part of the state’s efforts to adapt to climate change, but it’s still facing several legal and permitting hoops Newsom is unlikely to have time to jump through before the end of his term, let alone see the start of construction.

The tunnel is a priority for Jennifer Pierre, the general manager for the State Water Contractors, a group which represents the 27 water agencies that get water deliveries from the state government. But she’s already tempering any criticism of Newsom for not tying up all the loose ends.

“The expectation that somehow he was going to bird dog water for eight years straight is not a reasonable one,” she said about Newsom. “I think that he did what he could to try to advance these policies and projects, and I think it's just a reflection on the dysfunction of the large bureaucracy we've created in the state.”

The Trump connection

There’s another reason the water projects could be valuable for Newsom on a future presidential campaign trail: They highlight one of the few areas where Newsom and President Donald Trump largely agree, despite their posturing.

Newsom has deliberately positioned himself as a Trump antagonist. He’s mocked the president for referring to a “spigot” that could solve all of California’s water problems. And Trump, in turn, has mocked Newsom for California’s water shortages, suggesting that the governor is prioritizing insignificant endangered species like the Delta smelt over the water needs of cities and farmers.

But their actual policies have been remarkably aligned: Both waived environmental rules to send more water to farms in the Central Valley, for example, and both support the development of a new reservoir in Northern California.

“Maybe there’s a degree of arm-waving, but in reality, we were kind of digging in and getting things done,” said Karla Nemeth, the former longtime director of the California Department of Water Resources.

If he’s on the campaign trail, Newsom could point to water to show he’s doesn’t just fight Trump, but he’s also someone who’s pragmatic, and willing to work with him on the right issues.

Passing the issues off

Regardless of what lies ahead for Newsom, the next governor of California will be left to deal with these projects. The hard parts include financing them and defending them in court, while keeping the political coalitions backing them intact.

That successor is widely expected to be Democrat Xavier Becerra. Both he and his Republican challenger, Steve Hilton, are still in what Nemeth described as their “water 101” phase, meaning they don’t fully grasp the political complexities of the topic.

Becerra has spent much of his career fighting Trump, but he’s stayed mum on the most controversial water issues. Hilton, meanwhile, has embraced Trump’s call for more water for farms and cities.

Whoever wins won’t have time to ease into the issue.

A strong El Niño could bring heavier storms and raise the risk of flooding this winter, while California is also facing pressure to cut its reliance on the dwindling Colorado River. The next governor will have to manage those immediate threats while deciding what to do with the projects Newsom is trying to finish now.

Nemeth said the impact of climate change, which is making California’s water supplies more unpredictable, is making water a more compelling, and inescapable, issue for California’s leaders.

“Governors don’t have much of a grace period anymore,” she said. “It used to be that you could get through a term without hydrology knocking on the door. It doesn’t feel like that anymore.”