Poll: Neither Americans Nor Canadians Wanted Trump’s Trade War

President Donald Trump was wrong to launch his trade war on Canada, majorities of adults in both countries agree.

Now Canadians of all political stripes are rallying around their government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, while in the United States, even some self-identified MAGA voters are worried about the political fallout for Trump.

According to the latest POLITICO Poll, just a quarter of American respondents said Trump was right to impose new tariffs on Canada last month, while nearly three quarters of Canadians backed Carney’s decision to retaliate with matching Canadian duties on Sept. 8.

The poll was conducted by Public First, an independent polling company headquartered in London. It surveyed 4,183 American and Canadian adults between Sept. 13 and Sept. 15.

The divide underscores the precarious political ground the U.S. president is treading as his Republican Party limps toward November’s congressional elections. Democrats have hammered the tariffs for driving up costs, particularly in Senate battleground states that trade heavily with Canada, like Michigan, Maine and Texas, forcing Republican candidates to distance themselves from Trump.

In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins has repeatedly criticized Trump’s trade policies, while in New Hampshire, former Sen. John Sununu has come out against the tariffs. In Texas, James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, has said eliminating the tariffs is one of his top priorities if elected to the Senate.

“Voters simply did not connect tariffs to higher prices for many, many months,” Republican pollster Frank Luntz said in an email. “But that has begun to change — and the consequences are serious and significant.”

Asked for comment on the poll, the White House said Trump won the election because of his pledge to “put American workers, farmers and businesses first.”

“Canada was offered the best trade deal of any trading partner, and Canada rejected that deal to demand continued one-sided access to the American market with no reciprocity,” said White House spokesman Kush Desai. “President Trump will never waver from putting Americans and America First, whether in trade negotiations or through an economic agenda of tax cuts and deregulation that has secured trillions in manufacturing investments.”

Trump imposed a 50% tariff on about $20 billion worth of Canadian goods after talks between the two governments fell apart in August. Canada reciprocated with “dollar-for-dollar” tariffs of its own on Sept. 8, prompting the U.S. to impose an outright ban on some imports, like motorcycles and whiskey, set to go into effect on Sept. 29.

The POLITICO Poll found that half of U.S. adults do not believe the tariffs are worth it if they cause prices to go up, including more than a third who said they voted for Trump in 2024.

Trump’s most dedicated supporters are divided on how Trump has handled a situation that ratcheted up tension with one of America’s closest allies and trading partners so close to the election. Among self-identified MAGA Trump voters, 38% say Trump was right to raise tariffs on Canada, even if it risks losing congressional races in states like Michigan and Maine, while 40% said he was right, but should have waited until after the midterm elections.

Canadians remain broadly on Carney’s side, more than a month after he walked away from trade talks with the Trump administration, triggering the U.S. tariff increase. If anything, defiance has hardened with each threat and taunt in Trump’s trade war.

According to the new poll results, 71% say Carney was right to impose reciprocal tariffs, far more than the 17% who say he was wrong. And 57% of Canadians support matching Trump’s tariffs, more than double the number who say to make concessions to remove them.

This cross-party unity, rare in Canadian politics, continues to endure heading into the fall.

Canadians aren’t oblivious to the economic reality, including the fact that two-thirds of Canada’s exports head to American states. They see the U.S. as economically essential: 84% say international trade is important or essential to Canada’s economy, and 48% name the United States as one of Canada’s most important economic and trade relationships.

But they also tend to see the U.S.-Canada trade relationship as lopsided, with 38% saying it is unfairly favorable to the U.S., double the 18% who say it favors Canada.

Almost half of Canadian respondents say Carney should make no concessions to Trump on trade in an effort to resolve the trade war.

The poll results suggest there is a willingness to absorb the economic pain: 57% of Canadians say higher prices would be worth it if it allows Carney to stand up to Trump, compared with 25% who said they are not. Liberal Party voters are even more supportive, at 74%. The Angus Reid Institute and Nanos Research have similarly found that Canadians are — at least for now — willing to face the trade war fallout.

“There will be significant costs to this effort,” former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper said last week at Carney’s global investment summit, “but those are costs that I hope and believe Canadians are able and prepared to accept.”