Post Mar-a-lago Flip, Florida And National Democrats Dream Big For Midterms

TALLAHASSEE, Florida — There are certain rituals in Florida after an election, and the state’s Democrats hoping they can work their way out of their recent doldrums is among the most frequently seen.

But after Tuesday special elections saw the party flip not one, but two, legislative seats — including the state House district in Palm Beach County that includes Mar-a-Lago — Florida Democrats are feeling a sense of optimism shared by their compatriots nationwide that their victories could be a telling sign of midterm successes to come.

The latest triumphs cap a string of elections in 2025 and this year that have seen the party either overperform in ruby red districts or win outright. Democrats also won the Miami mayoral election last December. This comes after elections that saw President Donald Trump easily win the state in 2024 and Gov. Ron DeSantis romp to a 19-point victory in 2022, but also as Democrats across the country have flipped more than two dozen state seats during the president’s second term.“My message to Republicans is this: Your district is in danger,” said Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried.

Added Howard Richman, the chair of the Palm Beach County Democrats: “I think we’re in the middle of a big, big wave.”

The reverberations of wins by Emily Gregory in the state House and Brian Nathan in the state Senate have come alongside lots of GOP blame and Democratic credit-taking. Some Republicans were grumbling online that DeSantis had not taken an active role in trying to help in GOP legislative campaigns, including a state Senate candidate who has been a part of the leadership team of House Speaker Daniel Perez. Perez and DeSantis have feuded consistently the past year.

Florida Sen. Rick Scott, joining with other Republicans, downplayed the results as just a one-off.

“It's a special election,” Scott said. “It's always hard to get the vote out. Any elections in Florida right now would be state issues.”

But other observers say the results show that Democrats, independents and even some Republicans are pushing back against Trump and inaction on the state’s ongoing affordability crisis. The Democrat who won the state Senate seat in Tampa previously held by Lt. Gov. Jay Collins received only minimal support from the state party and still narrowly won.

“This just sends a resounding message, not just to Florida's but to Republicans around the country, that the American people are fed up,” said Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), chair of the House Democratic Caucus. “They're fed up with the costs going up, and the president in this administration and Republicans writ large, not doing anything to help them.”

Hispanic precincts, including those with a significant Puerto Rican vote in central Florida and the Tampa area, swung back to Democrats, according to an initial analysis from Florida Democratic consultant Matthew Isbell.

Isbell says he wants to take a closer look at the turnout when the data becomes available, but he said the results showed that “Trump gains were not permanent.”

“Democrats should not be looking at the races and say we are fine with Hispanics,” Isbell said. “It shows Hispanics are not in anyone’s camp.”

But amid the instant analysis, there’s also reminders of the recent past where Democrats have flipped legislative seats in special elections only to lose them in the general election, with a prime example in 2024. Republicans still have sizable advantages in Florida — including a nearly 1.5 million voter registration advantage — and significantly more money to spend.

“In today’s hyper-partisan political climate, special elections animate a particular type of voter depending on who’s in power in Washington,” said Ryan Tyson, a veteran Florida Republican pollster and consultant. “This is a similar pattern we have witnessed and it really doesn’t mean anything in the general election right now.”

It’s these tactical advantages that have scared off serious investment from national Democrats in the last two election cycles, including two Senate contests. Fried on Tuesday contended the series of special elections shows there is “energy” in Florida that could attract more national support this year.

David Jolly, the former GOP member of Congress running for governor as a Democrat, conceded the edge Republicans have in voter registration but insisted a “coalition” could be put together to enable Democratic wins statewide again that includes Republicans and independents. Florida Democrats have only won one statewide race in the past 12 years.

“It is the same trend we have seen for a year,” Jolly said. “I’m glad the rest of the country now realizes Florida is in play and change is here.”

He added that “voters always tell us what they want. They are telling us there is a crisis in the economy, whether real wages, health care access, homeowners' insurance. Republicans are just not listening.”

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise reiterated his chamber’s Republican focus is holding onto the majority in November — but suggested there could be lessons learned from Tuesday’s results.

“Surely you look at those and see, are there things we can learn and improve upon when the big election comes?” Scalise told reporters Wednesday. “And obviously, November is the election that we are focused on.”

Rep. Darren Soto, a central Florida Democrat whose seat has been targeted by Republicans, countered that “certainly we’ve got a long way to go until November, but I’d rather be winning special elections than losing.”