Republicans Face Likely Year-end Test After Punting Trump Spending Bill

A sweeping party-line spending bill demanded by President Donald Trump is at risk of being put on hold until after November’s election, after Senate Republicans failed to muster support before departing for August recess.

While Congress will be back in September, there are private doubts among GOP lawmakers that the Senate will move a plan before Nov. 3, given a pileup of other legislation and a desire to protect vulnerable Senate Republicans from taking tough votes just weeks before the election.

The process for adopting the Senate budget framework, designed to boost defense spending, farm assistance and election grant funding, would potentially expose GOP senators to votes prompted by Democrats on food assistance for low-income families, Trump’s long-sought White House ballroom and the $1.8 billion “Anti-Weaponization Fund” secured in a settlement between Trump and the IRS.

The effort relies on the budget reconciliation process to sidestep a filibuster by Democrats. Adopting the budget blueprint is just the first step, and then Republicans would need to draft and agree on the details of the spending itself – a process that could take weeks or months.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Saturday that he expected that Republicans would need to eventually pass a reconciliation bill to provide a boost in defense spending but he didn’t commit to action in September. That’s when Congress faces an intense pre-election sprint to avoid a government shutdown, pass Russia sanctions, revive a stalled cryptocurrency bill and other agenda items.

“It depends on what … the traffic will bear in September, but I think at some point we’re going to need to do another reconciliation bill,” Thune said, adding that he was “not predicting” a timeline.

One GOP senator granted anonymity to speak candidly said the Senate leaving town without adopting a budget framework “will be the end of the budget resolution.”

“It will be the end of reconciliation,” the senator added.

While Trump had been pressuring the Senate for a vote before recess, GOP senators said he agreed late Friday to punt until at least next month rather than have a failed vote this week.

If lawmakers fail to show progress in September, it could revive tensions between the president and Senate Republicans heading into the midterms after they flared in recent weeks over inaction on the budget plan and the SAVE America Act elections revamp – neither of which has the support to clear the chamber.

Rather than advancing SAVE America, the Senate on Saturday took a failed vote on voter ID legislation, which unlike the more sweeping elections bill doesn’t divide the GOP conference. The chamber also punted a college sports bill that Trump had demanded senators pass just hours before, with the bill’s supporters indicating that the legislation would be a top priority in September.

But it’s the budget resolution that Republicans worried would put their own members in a jam. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) went so far as to indicate that he would oppose it to help protect vulnerable colleagues from having a target put on their back.

"I’m going to support my members who are up for election,” Tillis said. “They're the most important priority right now.”

Underscoring the work ahead, Senate Republicans are expected to revise the initial budget proposal they rolled out Friday, after pushback from GOP lawmakers concerned it was too broad and wouldn't adequately fund the military.

Even major advocates of the spending plan – the third Republicans have attempted since the outset of Trump’s second term – are casting doubt on quick action once the Senate returns.

“If you’re going to expect it to be done in September, I think it would be pretty difficult to do it without passing a resolution [in August],” Senate Budget Chair Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said in an interview Friday.

Asked Friday night, after speaking with Trump, if the delay meant Republicans would have to tackle the bill in the post-election lame duck session, Johnson said Republicans “will start working on it diligently.”

“That’s all we can say,” he added.