Republicans Shift Further Into Defensive Posture As Midterms Loom

Republicans are flooding the electoral map with a deluge of advertising to defend their House and Senate majorities. But their once-towering financial advantage is starting to show its limits.

In recent days, Republican campaign groups began to make concessions to the punishing political environment, shifting money away from races they no longer believe to be winnable and falling back to reinforce another tier of seats in solidly red states that no longer look safe.

After abandoning a GOP-held Senate seat in North Carolina — a state President Donald Trump won three times — the outside groups began spending money to defend a seat in South Carolina. And they’re intensifying their advertising in Kansas, where Democrats haven't won a Senate race in nearly a century.

In the battle for control of the House, national Republicans gave up on defending a blue-leaning seat in Nebraska held for a decade by retiring GOP Rep. Don Bacon.

Those dispiriting setbacks signal that the party's defensive position is weakening with a month still left in the campaign.

One national Republican strategist, granted anonymity to speak freely about the party’s predicament, said the GOP could wind up facing even worse losses than in President George W. Bush’s disastrous second term.

“If the bottom continues falling out like it has been,” this operative said, “this will be worse than 2006.”

As Trump’s approval continues to sag amid soaring gas and diesel prices driven by the war with Iran, Democrats are bullish that the map will continue to grow for them. And while Republicans still maintain a big outside money advantage, the recent moves show it’s not unlimited — with more tough decisions likely before Election Day.

Another national GOP operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the landscape, put it simply: “fires everywhere.” The latest comes in South Carolina, where no Democrat has won a Senate race in three decades.

The GOP’s top Senate super PAC — Senate Leadership Fund — plans to spend $5 million boosting recently appointed GOP Sen. Darline Graham, according to a person familiar with the decision. Recent public polling shows a close race between Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews.

Trump repeatedly lashed out at Andrews on Truth Social on Monday night, a sign that the president is paying attention.

Graham’s campaign and other Republicans in the Palmetto State say they welcome the extra cash.

“After over a month of non-stop misleading ads from Annie Andrews, funded by millions of out-of-state dollars, South Carolinians are beginning to learn the truth,” Graham campaign spokesperson TW Arrighi said in a statement.

“Anybody that wants to come into South Carolina, we appreciate it. Not gonna argue with it,” said a GOP official in South Carolina, adding: “$5 million coming to South Carolina is a nothing burger when you look at how much funding there is nationally.”

Kansas is another trouble spot for the GOP.

On Tuesday, a GOP group linked to the powerful Club for Growth added nearly a half-million dollars in planned spending to try to save GOP Sen. Roger Marshall in his tight race with Democratic megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton. A Club spokesperson said their ad reservations in the state total $1.6 million, “with more on the way.” That comes just days after SLF invested $10 million in the state.

“I'm glad they're here,” said Kansas GOP Chair Danedri Herbert. “They are definitely helping us multiply our efforts, which will matter.”

SLF’s Kansas spending came as it and other prominent GOP groups canceled their ad reservations in North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper appears poised to flip one of the four Senate seats Democrats need to net for control of the upper chamber.

“Senate Leadership Fund’s mission is to maintain the Republican Senate majority, and thanks to Leader Thune’s tireless efforts we’re unleashing unprecedented resources across the map to accomplish that goal,” SLF communications director Chris Gustafson said in a statement.

House Republicans are facing similar tough decisions. On Monday, House Republicans’ main outside group, Congressional Leadership Fund, bailed on an Omaha-based district. Republicans long admitted it would be tough to hold after Bacon opted not to run for reelection, but maintained for months that they would keep the race competitive.

Trump’s political organization has also recently put money into deep-red seats in order to shore them up, including adding even more cash on Tuesday to hold a district in Lexington, Kentucky that Trump won by 15 points in 2024. Elon Musk’s America PAC’s latest spending went in part to shore up red House districts held by Reps. Max Miller (R-Ohio) and Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), as well as to continue the onslaught of GOP spending to save Texas Senate nominee Ken Paxton.

Meanwhile, Democrats continue to expand their push into red territory.

Another Republican operative working on House races said the influx of Democratic spending means the GOP groups have “got to go play defense in a lot of those red districts.”

“There's only so much money going around,” the operative said, adding that as Democrats “add more races to the board, obviously others have to come off.” Republicans continue to publicly insist they can hold both chambers of Congress.

“Now listen, this is going to be a very close election,” Speaker Mike Johnson told the GOP crowd during a campaign stop for Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.) on Tuesday.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune declined to put odds on the likelihood the GOP would keep control of the upper chamber in a Monday interview, but said “I think we can keep the majority.”

“I think all of these races are margin of error, at least the ones that we have to win,” he added in an interview with POLITICO. “And historically, at least if you look at polls, we tend to outperform them.”

As Republicans pull back from historically purple territory, that’s letting Democrats shift their own more limited resources away from races that look increasingly like safe bets and to put more money into redder turf.

Senate Democrats’ main super PAC, Senate Majority PAC, removed roughly $1.1 million in North Carolina ad buys for the week and recently began spending a bit in Texas.

“It shows how bad this environment is for Republicans and how they're scrambling to protect people that, quite frankly, shouldn't be as vulnerable as they are,” SMP spokesperson Lauren French said. “We are committed to winning a Senate majority. We think that's within our reach. And it's not unhelpful that they are backtracking so aggressively.”

Meredith Lee Hill, Alec Hernández and Samuel Benson contributed to this report.