Schumer Thinks These Four States Will Deliver For Dems In November

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer believes Democrats have a “real good chance” of flipping the Senate in November — bullish optimism for a party swept out of power in 2024 and still facing several contested primary battles.

In an interview, the New York Democrat called North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska “the four states we have to pick up to win back the Senate.” Two other offensive targets, Iowa and Texas, didn’t make Schumer’s core list, but they’re “very possible” pickups, he said. To retake the Senate, Democrats must also defend states they currently hold, including Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), and open races to replace retiring senators in Michigan and New Hampshire.

“We have a clear and strong path to winning back the Senate,” Schumer said at the DSCC headquarters in Washington, D.C. “A year ago, no one thought that.”

Schumer, along with a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee memo shared with POLITICO, laid out their strategy for Democrats’ path back to the majority — candidate recruiting victories in key races, falling job approval ratings for President Donald Trump and messaging focused on affordability. Former Rep. Mary Peltola jumped into the Alaska Senate race on Monday, the latest recruiting victory for Schumer. But their confidence, boosted by a string of off-year victories, largely ignores their own contentious and expensive primary season ahead, particularly in Maine, Michigan, and Iowa.

“We've always had primaries, and some of them always look difficult,” Schumer said. “You work your way through. … Our north star is winning the Senate. That’s what motivates what we do in each thing.”

Beyond Democrats’ intraparty fights, a straight sweep of those four states is a steep hill for Democrats, laden with obstacles. Trump won Ohio and Alaska by double-digits in 2024. Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in North Carolina since 2008. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Me.) beat her last Democratic opponent by nearly 9 percentage points in 2020, even as then-President Joe Biden won the state.

Nonetheless, Schumer compared the 2026 midterms to 2006, when Democrats flipped the House and Senate by running against the Iraq War. “An overseas adventure was bothering the American people” in 2006 and 2026, Schumer said, “Why is [George W. Bush] so focused on Iraq? Why is Trump so focused on Venezuela?”

In contrast, Schumer said, Democrats will be relentlessly focused on cost-of-living concerns.

“All of our candidates, primary or not, have latched onto the cost issue as the most important issue facing America,” he said. “The fact that Trump hasn't paid attention to that really bothers [voters]. It's not just what he's talking about, it’s that he's busy focusing … on Venezuela, and on Greenland, and now Iran.”

Trump’s allies acknowledged that the operations in Venezuela could complicate the White House’s midterm messaging. And Trump himself told POLITICO that “prices” will be central to the 2026 midterms.

Schumer and the DSCC have faced pushback from Democrats, both inside Washington and beyond, for their handling of various crowded primaries this cycle. Some accuse the DSCC of not intervening heavily enough, like in Texas, when Rep. Colin Allred abruptly dropped out and Rep. Jasmine Crockett, an anti-Trump firebrand, jumped in. Others vented against Washington putting its thumb on the scale.

In Maine, Schumer heavily recruited Gov. Janet Mills to run, but he failed to keep out Graham Platner, a progressive oyster fisherman who gained national attention for both his viral videos and various scandals. Even so, Platner raised more than $5 million for his bid, and he’s picked up fans in the Senate.

A group of senators, calling themselves the “Fight Club,” have also started weighing in on the open primaries in Maine, Minnesota, and Michigan, often backing candidates not seen as Washington’s preferred choice. When asked about this resistance, Schumer insisted, “we've always had primaries, and we have to be guided by how to win the election.”

Schumer said “there’s no one formula” for the kind of Democrat who can win statewide. “We don’t have a preference, old versus young, more progressive versus a little less progressive,” Schumer said. “It's who can do best in their state. There’s a lot of factors that go into that.”

In Texas, which will hold its primary on March 3, Schumer said Democrats have a “better chance than people think,” but it’s a contingent on the Republican primary, he said. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is facing stiff challenges from Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), which could force a one-on-one runoff in May.

“The people who turn out in the runoff are the Paxton types, so he could win the primary, and then we have a real good chance,” he said.