Sergey Brin’s Big Victory In California

The California wealth tax’s likely defeat was a victory for Gavin Newsom and establishment Democrats who lined up against it. It was also a victory for billionaires — no one more so than Sergey Brin.

Embarking on his first real political campaign, the billionaire co-founder of Google effectively built and funded an opposition campaign against one of the state’s largest labor unions, SEIU-UHW. While the Associated Press has yet to call the race, even proponents have acknowledged their imminent loss. In a since-deleted post on X, the union sponsoring the measure said Wednesday that the measure “appears unlikely to pass.” Brin's money helped to convince voters in California, among the most liberal states in the country, to reject a tax on the wealthy. And he was able to pull it off in a political environment in which voters increasingly have a poor view of billionaires and do not believe they are paying their fair share in taxes, and on a night where progressives across the country otherwise notched victories seemingly across the board.

It is a remarkable achievement for a man who until recently was largely disengaged from state politics. The question at hand now is where an emboldened Brin, with endless resources, a newly capable political apparatus, and an apparently renewed interest in politics, turns his attention next — and whether his allies follow suit.

“That's the billion-dollar question,” said Brian Brokaw, a veteran Democratic consultant who helped lead early efforts to oppose the billionaire tax. “It's a collection of folks that typically don't play together, and I think the challenge that they have to confront is: Can they agree upon some policy priorities that unify them?”

Brin could be instrumental in whatever comes next. But he’s stepped back since spearheading the anti-Proposition 40 efforts in the early days: While he’s supplied roughly a third of the money to fight it, he has not cut a check since mid-July as other wealthy Californians stepped up.

“My experience is (billionaires) often get bored and move on to collecting model railroads,” said Mike Murphy, a consultant who has worked for affluent foes of the initiative. “I’m not sure it’s right to say they’re going to stick around and continue to do this stuff. It’s an open question.”

When SEIU-UHW first introduced Prop 40, there were some immediate indications that wealthy Silicon Valley types might get involved in the campaign. An opposition committee called Stop the Squeeze, led by former Newsom advisers and seeded by Silicon Valley investor and longtime Democratic megadonor Ron Conway, was formed soon after the measure was cleared to begin gathering signatures.

Few could have predicted the tsunami of opposition that emerged once Brin entered into the campaign.

In fact, many political observers were caught by surprise when a prominent campaign lawyer filed a series of initiatives seemingly intent on nullifying the billionaire tax. On the same day, a new committee called Building a Better California was organized, with Brin’s personal operation listed on the paperwork.

Over the course of this year, Building a Better California raised over $300 million, retained some of California’s top political strategists and maintained a disciplined campaign that managed to avoid antagonizing voters with their spending. Brin contributed $100 million of his personal fortune to defeat Prop 40, between the wealth tax itself and two measures that would void the levy.

Dave Regan, the president of SEIU-UHW, gave what amounted to a pre-concession speech even before polls closed Tuesday, saying he was “prepared to see this fight through to the end” and suggesting his union might try again in 2028. National progressive groups too have said they will continue to push raising taxes on the ultrawealthy amid growing income inequality.

“This is one little skirmish in an overall battle,” said Ezra Levin, the co-founder of progressive organizing group Indivisible. “What’s become abundantly clear is the Silicon Valley zillionaires have aligned themselves with the far right.”

Beyond his spending on Props 40, 41, and 42, Brin’s Building a Better California spread money across the ballot. The organization contributed $1 million to pass Proposition 1, an affordable housing and homelessness bond, $6 million to pass Proposition 37, a homebuyers loan fund, and $10 million to Proposition 45, an effort to speed up California Environmental Quality Act reviews for certain projects.

That additional spending offers a clue about where Brin and his allies will try to influence politics going forward. Building a Better California spokesperson Abby Lunardini told POLITICO that the committee plans to continue advancing policies that make California “the place where the future is built and where a family can still afford to put down roots and get ahead,” naming affordability, job creation and innovation as top priorities.

“California’s problems aren’t going away,” Lunardini added.

That’s if Brin can keep his coalition together. Although he’s particularly well positioned to stick around if he chooses because of the sheer size of his political infrastructure and the wider focus on housing and environmental policy, it’s common for ballot measure coalitions to lose momentum from cycle to cycle or disassemble after defeating the impending threat that led to their creation.

The continued threat of wealth tax may keep billionaires engaged, said Dan Newman, a Democratic strategist who worked with Stop the Squeeze. Some labor groups beyond SEIU-UHW have expressed interest in running their own wealth tax measure in future cycles, and there’s little indication that anti-billionaire sentiment among voters is subsiding.

“Everybody on all sides has to acknowledge that [Prop 40 has] tapped into this real and understandable angst and anger about billionaires,” Newman said. “They did it in a very sloppy, ineffectual manner. But you can bet it'll be back in some form.”

California Labor Federation Lorena Gonzalez said she also expects a wealth tax to return in a different and likely stronger form, arguing results beyond California showed tech “is in trouble everywhere because of AI and because of wealth consolidation.”

“We've always trailed behind on true economic progressivism. We're a weird state. But it’s catching up with us,” she said.

The billionaires who financed the anti-Prop 40 campaign face a number of headwinds that suggest they’re vulnerable to splintering. Its top donors don’t see eye-to-eye on politics, with some being longtime Democratic boosters and others having recently backed Republicans. And it’s hard to see donors prioritizing state-level policy fights in California ahead of a fast-approaching 2028 presidential campaign where their spending will have a national-level impact.

"Creating a unifying game plan is a lot more difficult than donating money to defeat Prop 40,” said longtime California ballot measure strategist Brandon Castillo. “Does this coalition stick together after the election, after the initial threat?”

He added: “That is going to be up to them.”

Jeremy B. White contributed to this report.