Swalwell And Steyer Surge In Wide-open California Governor’s Race

SAN FRANCISCO — When Eric Swalwell and Tom Steyer jumped into the California governor’s race, much of the political class rolled its eyes — two failed presidential hopefuls with seemingly thin bases and no track record statewide.

Three months later they're surging, with poll after poll placing them among the top three Democrats in the race. Without better-known and better-connected candidates running, Swalwell and Steyer have capitalized on their passing familiarity and, in Steyer’s case, bottomless wealth, to create surprisingly durable campaigns with a real shot at winning.

“Swalwell and Steyer’s campaigns got legs because there still hasn’t been a breakout candidate,” said veteran California political consultant Elizabeth Ashford, who was a senior adviser to two former governors and chief of staff to Kamala Harris when she was state attorney general. “It’s still on the table.”

In a state that has produced a run of high-profile governors with national clout — from Arnold Schwarzenegger to Jerry Brown and now, Gavin Newsom — the rise of Swalwell and Steyer reflects a low-wattage and deeply unsettled contest. First Harris and Sen. Alex Padilla passed on running. Then state Attorney General Rob Bonta and billionaire mall magnate Rick Caruso declined. Former Rep. Katie Porter, an early frontrunner stung by viral videos of contentious interactions with a journalist and a staffer, failed to pull away from the field.

Now, as state Democrats gather this weekend for their annual convention, they are taking stock of a breakout moment for Swalwell, a Bay Area House member who dropped out of the 2020 presidential contest months before the first votes were cast, and Steyer, the billionaire climate activist who ended his White House bid after a flat finish in South Carolina.

Swalwell has jumped ahead of Porter in several recent polls. And Steyer has climbed to the high single digits, into a statistical tie with Porter in some surveys, after blanketing every major media market in the state with ads. Steyer has already spent around $28 million of his own wealth campaigning — multiples more than any other candidate has raised — and restocked his campaign with another $9 million last month to keep the advertising onslaught going. He’s one of few candidates on the air right now, joined only by former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, for whom a super PAC is trying to boost his low name recognition in Los Angeles.

Here at the party convention, Elvia Hernandez, a clinical therapist and delegate from Southern California, said Steyer’s ad blitz is getting the attention of her nurse coworkers. And they generally don’t remember his presidential flameout.

“With just massive amounts of ads being pushed,” Hernandez said, Steyer is “the only name that's coming above water at this point.”

Meantime, Swalwell has continued beaming into Californians’ living rooms on the cable news stations where he is a fixture, and has held town halls to boost his profile in inland regions of the state. This month, he got the endorsement of Sen. Adam Schiff, the most prominent Democrat to choose sides in the race. At the convention Friday night, the line to a party he was hosting wrapped around the block.

As Lori Anzini, a delegate from El Dorado County, put it, the top three are as follows: “Steyer is one, Swalwell is another, and perhaps Katie Porter.”

Nick Schultz, a state assemblymember from Burbank who endorsed Swalwell, put those three, plus Mahan, in the “top echelon.”

“I think there's four candidates that do have some pathway,” he said at the convention on Friday.

Both Steyer and Swalwell were challenged early by their limited ties with unions and other interest groups in Sacramento whose donations and endorsements can help candidates establish themselves. Steyer had interacted with some statehouse players over the years by supporting California ballot measures, but neither he nor Swalwell had been required to do the broader outreach necessary for a politician serving in a statewide or state legislative office.

To compensate, Steyer and Swalwell have taken marathon meetings with influential insiders in Sacramento, and it has seemingly paid off. The California Medical Association, a powerful interest group representing doctors, has backed Swalwell and promised to financially support him, while unions representing nurses and school support staff have gotten behind Steyer. Both have left interest groups in Sacramento convinced they would, at a minimum, have their ear, according to three Democratic operatives familiar with their outreach, granted anonymity to discuss it.

“There is a Sacramento primary going on,” said a Democratic strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly. “And for a lot of folks in Sacramento, it's, ‘I want the person to be governor that's going to ensure that I can get to the golf course by 5.’”

Swalwell and Steyer’s rivals are taking note, targeting them frequently with attacks in a sign of their viability.

Mahan, running as a tech-friendly centrist, criticized Steyer this week for his pledge to raise corporate taxes, saying that would “make just about everything in California even more expensive.” Porter laced into billionaires in a video featuring footage of Steyer, comparing them to the insatiable mammals in the children’s board game Hungry Hungry Hippos.

Steyer, while using Mahan as a moderate foil, has also ripped Swalwell. He released an ad hitting Swalwell for missing the most House votes of any member last year. It spliced a clip of Swalwell shooting baskets in a pool and bench pressing during the government shutdown, saying, “I should be working right now,” in between stats about his missed votes.

“Call me old-fashioned,” Steyer wrote on social media over the video, “but you typically need to show up to work to get a promotion.”