The Bruising, Messy House Primary Battles To Watch Today

Primary season is officially here. And the first elections of the midterms expose generational and ideological divides for both parties.

The biggest contests on Tuesday night — when elections are being held in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas — are the Lone Star State’s Senate primaries. Democrats James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett and Republicans John Cornyn, Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt have spent millions on their respective bids, and across the board it’s still anyone’s guess who will emerge victorious — or if the races will stretch on for an additional three months in high-stakes runoffs.

But further down the ballot, there is everything from battles over support for Israel in the Democratic Party to fights over loyalty to President Donald Trump for Republicans. These early races will signal which issues resonate with voters ahead of future primaries — and on to November.

Here’s what POLITICO is watching today.

The vulnerable incumbents

Republican and Democratic incumbents alike are facing challenges in mostly safe House seats, and it’s worrying leaders of both parties.

The messiest fight is playing out in Texas' 23rd District, where Rep. Tony Gonzales is navigating the ongoing fallout of an alleged affair with a staffer, which he denies, who later died by suicide. Gonzales is facing a challenge from gun influencer “TheAKGuy” Brandon Herrera.

Herrera has seized on the Gonzales scandal to cast him as unelectable in a general election this fall, but the race was competitive even before the news broke. Gonzales continues to say the attacks are false. But Herrera has baggage of his own, and Republicans in Washington are worried that Democrats may have an opening to flip the South Texas seat, no matter which candidate wins the GOP primary.

Speaker Mike Johnson has said the race is up to voters in the district, and on Tuesday it will be clear which side they are on.

Rep. Dan Crenshaw is also facing a Republican primary in the 2nd District, though his is focused on ideological and stylistic divides in the Trump-era GOP rather than scandal. The Freedom Caucus PAC and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) have lined up behind state Rep. Steve Toth, who is working to cast Crenshaw as a RINO who doesn’t align with the deep-red district.

And unlike Gonzales and every other Texas House Republican navigating a primary challenge, Crenshaw is missing one key backer: Trump.

On the Democratic side, four incumbents — Texas Reps. Julie Johnson, Christian Menefee and Al Green, and North Carolina Rep. Valerie Foushee — are battling primary challengers to hold onto their seats.

Foushee is in a repeat match-up in the blue North Carolina's 4th District with her 2022 opponent, Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, who has worked to paint Foushee as in the pocket of interest groups like AIPAC and the artificial intelligence industry.

The race has seen gobs of outside spending, with a newly launched anti-AIPAC super PAC and the David Hogg-founded Leaders We Deserve backing Allam. Meanwhile, Foushee has new friends of her own, seeing increased spending from an Anthropic-aligned pro-AI super PAC and a mystery super PAC called Article One whose donors will be disclosed later this year.

Back in Texas, Johnson is facing former Rep. Colin Allred in a primary that has divided members of the party. The two Democrats are running in the newly redrawn 33rd District following the state GOP’s redistricting efforts last summer. Allred has gone after Johnson for taking corporate PAC money and for stock trading as a member, while Johnson has focused more on her record in Congress and hitting Allred for past votes he took.

And in Texas' 18th District, the recently-elected Menefee is navigating an incumbent-on-incumbent primary with Green, who was also drawn out of his seat. The primary has highlighted the generational divide that is embroiling the party in other races this year.

Menefee has the backing of Leaders We Deserve as well as Fairshake, a crypto-aligned super PAC. The members don’t have many clear policy differences, and it’s unclear who will emerge from the fight Tuesday.

The hopefuls

There are also primary fights playing out among those who hope to flip a seat this November.

A handful of Republicans are running to take on Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) in his recently redrawn battleground 1st District in North Carolina. Republican former Trump administration official Laurie Buckhout and Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck are seen as the front-runners in the race.

The five-way contest has gotten a bit messy, after Buckhout was accused of offering state Sen. Bobby Hanig a job in her office if he quit the race. Whoever emerges from the primary will be bolstered by the GOP’s new gerrymander, but it is still a swingy district, and Davis has overcome tough challenges in years past.

In the Trump-leaning 11th District in the Tar Heel State, Democrats are hopeful that Jamie Ager — who was recently added to the DCCC’s red-to-blue list — will emerge victorious from the primary. His opponents came out with a letter last week bashing the DCCC for throwing their weight behind Ager, but Washington Democrats believe Ager is best poised to flip the seat currently held by GOP Rep. Chuck Edwards.

In Texas' 34th District, two candidates with the same last name — former Rep. Mayra Flores and former federal prosecutor Eric Flores — are trying to take on Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) in the Rio Grande Valley House seat. Eric Flores has picked up the backing of Trump and other top Republicans. But the race is still close, and given the crowded field of six Republicans, it could go to a May runoff.

Democrats are eager to pull off an upset in the deep-red Rio Grande Valley in Texas' 15th District that was recently redrawn to favor the GOP. But before they get there, their preferred candidate, Tejano star Bobby Pulido, has been in a messy and personal primary fight with emergency room physician Ada Cuellar. Cuellar has hit Pulido repeatedly for past misogynistic comments and says his blue-dog brand is not what the party needs in the Trump era.

That race is also a proxy for the Senate seat, with Talarico behind Pulido and Crockett behind Cuellar.

The races that are not worth watching today

These primaries could have major implications for November, but aren’t worth spending too much time on Tuesday.

North Carolina will have a marquee Senate race this fall, but former GOP Chair Michael Whatley and former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper have effectively cleared their respective fields.

And in Arkansas, incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton has no formidable GOP challengers. He’s likely to face an easy path to reelection this fall, but Democrats Ethan Dunbar and Hallie Shoffner are facing off Tuesday for the nomination to take on Cotton.

A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.