The Last Us Nuclear Weapons Treaty With Russia Is Dying

The expiration this week of a core U.S.-Russia arms control treaty could touch off a global nuclear weapons race for the first time since the Cold War.

Russia made initial overtures about a renewed pact in September, but the Trump administration has not formally responded, according to two people familiar with the negotiations. The New START treaty, which will expire on Thursday, was struck in 2010 and limited how many deployed nuclear-capable missiles, bombers and warheads both the U.S. and Russia could have.

The likely dissolution of the agreement comes at an especially fraught time. Russia and China are expanding their strategic arsenals and the Kremlin has threatened to use nuclear weapons on Ukraine. The Defense Department has held a series of internal meetings in preparation for a post-New START world, according to the two people and another person familiar — all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss internal talks — although it’s not clear what was discussed in the meetings.

“We’re looking at a very uncertain path ahead,” said Daryl Kimball, the executive director of the Arms Control Association. “Unless Trump and Putin reach some sort of understanding soon, it’s not unlikely that Russia and the U.S. will start to upload more warheads on their missiles.”

Russia, over the past decade, has significantly expanded its intermediate-range nuclear-capable forces — such as the Oreshnik, a ballistic missile that it has used in combat with Ukraine. China has more than doubled the size of its nuclear arsenal as the U.S. scaled back on some nuclear-capable platforms.

President Donald Trump has indicated that he would like a new deal, but said he wanted it to include China. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s offer from September would have extended New START limits for another year, although it would have prevented inspections on weapons.

Putin has also demanded that Britain and France participate in a follow-up treaty. Both countries can launch nuclear missiles from submarines or use fighter jets to drop atomic weapons, but do not have land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles in their arsenals.

“Now is the time when some form of communication channels and transparency measures would be particularly valuable,” said Heather Williams, director of the Project on Nuclear Issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Russia suspended those sorts of activities and China has consistently rejected participation in arms control.”

The Pentagon referred questions to the White House. Trump “will decide the path forward on nuclear arms control, which he will clarify on his own timeline,” the White House said in a statement.

While the president considers a way forward, he has downplayed the risks of going without an arms control agreement for the foreseeable future. Trump told The New York Times in a January interview that he would be able to cut a better deal.

“If it expires, it expires,” he said. “We’ll just do a better agreement.”

But some former officials have expressed frustration with the administration’s willingness to give up on the treaty just because it doesn’t include China.

“[I]t was never clear to me why we should jettison all limits on Russian strategic forces because New START wasn’t a panacea that captured all nuclear weapons — which of course it was never intended to be,” Kingston Reif, a former top Pentagon nuclear official, wrote in a Linkedin post.

New START’s expiration would mark the first time the U.S. has been without a nuclear arms control treaty with Russia in nearly 40 years, dating back to the Reagan administration.

Some Democratic lawmakers have raised alarms in the days leading up the treaty’s expiration. Several introduced legislation aimed to make it U.S. policy to seek negotiated steps to reduce the number and salience of nuclear weapons. The bill would also bar nuclear testing — a step Trump has threatened — which likely dooms the legislation in the GOP-controlled Congress.

“If we allow New START to lapse without a replacement or an extension, we will be entering a new terrifying world we haven't seen in decades: a world without limits on the nuclear arsenals of the two largest nuclear powers,” Rep. John Garamendi (D-Calif.), one of the cosponsors, said in a statement.

Still, the nuclear landscape isn’t expected to shift immediately. Inspectors monitored the weapons caps for both countries. But the Kremlin in 2023 barred officials from observing its arsenals, which limited their ability to enforce the treaty. And the initial Russian offer to restart negotiations didn’t include verification mechanisms, including inspections and data exchanges, so the two sides may have a long way to go to reestablish firm controls.

Meanwhile, the U.S. arsenal is aging rapidly — and includes weapons that are more than 50 years old. But Russia has already begun a modernization effort by developing new weapon systems, such as the Poseidon sea drone and hypersonic weapons, that wouldn’t have been covered by New START’s limits.

“If you develop new kinds of strategic weapons, then they should be discussed, but the Russians won't meet [that requirement]” said Steven Pifer, a former State Department official focused on the former Soviet Union and Europe, as well as arms control issues. “The Russians have basically said ‘well, we're prepared to extend these limits but we're not going to allow the verification.’”

This all means the Pentagon may have to scramble to find new ways to counter Russia’s and China’s buildups. And American allies may act as well, although not in partnership with the U.S.

For the first time in decades, Europe could also join the arms race and proliferate or build up. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said last week that allies have begun discussing building a shared nuclear umbrella on the continent.

Swedish Prime Ulf Kristersson also said he’s started diplomatic talks with France and the U.K. — the continent’s only nuclear-armed powers — about developing additional nuclear capabilities for Europe.

Experts expect Chinese leader Xi Jinping to react, too.

“It’s only going to encourage the Chinese to accelerate their already worrisome strategic buildup,” Kimball said.

Joe Gould contributed to this report.