The Primaries To Watch Today In Arizona

Arizona’s primary elections Tuesday will put the spotlight on all the major themes currently roiling American politics — from the future of the Democratic Party and its anti-establishment streak, to President Donald Trump’s grip on the GOP base.

In battleground House races and the top of the ticket race for governor, each contest will test where the major parties stand ahead of November’s midterms. Statewide, Republicans are looking at picking hardliners like the kinds who lost winnable races in 2022 after focusing on conspiracies about the 2020 election. On the Democratic side, the establishment is trying to block a 2024 House candidate who lost in a swing seat from being their nominee once again.

And in November, Democrats will try to continue their momentum in a state that Trump carried by a 5-point margin in 2024 after losing it four years earlier.

Here are four races Score is watching in the Grand Canyon State:

Gubernatorial Republican primary

The Trump-backed Rep. Andy Biggs is on a glide path to the nomination against fellow Rep. David Schweikert, after fellow Trump-endorsee businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson — who had more allies in the moderate wing of the party — ended her campaign in February.

Biggs is poised to face Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in November, setting up an expensive and messy general election in one of Republicans' best gubernatorial pickup chances this fall. The former House Freedom Caucus chair and conservative firebrand has long aligned himself with Trump and played a key role in his attempt to overturn the 2020 election results.

He has the backing of Turning Point USA, Charlie Kirk’s old organization, which is headquartered in the state. The general election will be a referendum on whether a Republican hardliner can win a statewide race in what’s looking to be a bruising midterm cycle for the GOP.

AZ-01 Democratic primary

Arizona’s 1st District will present Democrats with their biggest primary on Tuesday. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is backing Marlene Galan-Woods against Amish Shah, their unsuccessful 2024 nominee for the seat.

Galan-Woods has picked up the endorsements of the biggest-name Democrats in the state — Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) cut an ad for her last week — but Shah has leaned into the fact he’s not the establishment’s pick this time around after the DCCC spent millions on his behalf in the 2024 general election.

It’s shaping up to be a close race, with publicly available polling mostly split. It could be the latest example of an establishment-backed candidate losing a Democratic primary, as voters continue to show frustration with leaders in Washington. Meanwhile, a third Democrat, self-funder Jonathan Treble, could play spoiler after pouring millions into his bid.

Whoever emerges will have the chance to win in one of Democrats’ best pickup opportunities this cycle, with Schweikert opting to run for governor instead of reelection in a district Trump won by just three points last time. Former NFL kicker-turned-pundit Jay Feely seems likely to pick up the GOP nomination, but he’s facing a challenge from hardline Republican former state Rep. Joseph Chaplik.

AZ-05 Republican primary

Former Sheriff Mark Lamb, who is navigating a variety of alleged sex scandals unveiled by the Arizona Republic, has been vastly outspent in the race to replace Biggs by a businessman who has hammered him on the issue. But Lamb still has Trump on his side, and that combined with his name ID could be enough to send him to the House regardless, as POLITICO reported last week.

Daniel Keenan has poured more than $2 million of his own cash into attacks on Lamb, and the race will test voters’ appetite for scandal — and whether any of it is enough to move the needle in a ruby-red House seat that Trump carried by more than 20 points in 2024.

AZ-04 Democratic primary

Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), a moderate former mayor of Phoenix, is facing a challenge from progressive activist Kai Newkirk.

Stanton is favored to win the race, though recent internal polling has shown a mixed picture of whether the race is competitive. Newkirk has picked up the endorsement of big progressive groups like Our Revolution.

There’s been very little spent on advertising in the race, and Newkirk hasn’t posted great fundraising hauls. But a surprise upset could point to Democratic voters’ frustration with the status quo in Washington after other incumbents have fallen to more-progressive challengers in New York and Colorado.

A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.