Trump Hands Xavier Becerra A Climate Dilemma

California's most ambitious climate goals could be up for negotiation under a Becerra administration — and the Democratic front-runner is being pulled in two different directions.

If he coasts to victory in November, as expected, Xavier Becerra will face competing pressures: delivering on the affordability message that propelled him through the primary while fending off President Donald Trump's relentless attacks on California's climate agenda.

How well he strikes that balance could determine if the state remains a climate policy leader — a reputation built over the past decade by Govs. Gavin Newsom and Jerry Brown — or if that mantle falls by the wayside.

During the primary, Becerra cast himself as a pragmatic, affordability-minded alternative to billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer, who spent millions blasting his Democratic rival for accepting oil donations. Becerra went as far as to say “you need Chevron, I need Chevron,” during an April candidate forum, drawing backlash from environmental groups.

The former Health Secretary wouldn’t commit to California's plan of banning sales of new gas and hybrid vehicles starting in 2035 and signaled openness to adjusting the state’s 2045 carbon neutrality target — now enshrined in state law — telling POLITICO that he isn’t willing to “hang up our economy and families’ cost of living if we find that we’re not able to meet that goal.”

Environmentalists raised serious questions about his commitment to the energy transition during the primary campaign, and those questions are likely to follow Becerra into the governor's office.

The challenge, Democratic strategists say, will be reconciling his calls for more flexibility with his role as California's chief foil to the Trump administration.

“This governor is going to have to walk that line and show he's going to be a credible messenger when it comes to making sure California still leads the charge,” said Andrew Acosta, a veteran Democratic campaign consultant. “Even if he has concerns about the time frame when it comes to climate goals, you still have the Trump administration undercutting a ton of stuff that Californians think are good when it comes to the environment.”

Since reoccupying the White House last year, the Trump administration has steamrolled state and local leaders to restart a controversial Santa Barbara oil pipeline, persuaded two developers to cancel massive offshore wind projects off the California coast and targeted the state’s signature emissions trading program.

Congressional Republicans also revoked California’s electric vehicle sales mandates last June. And the EPA earlier this month submitted four more federal waivers to Congress for review, setting up the possibility that Republicans could nix the state’s decades-old vehicle emissions rules.

“Take EVs or offshore drilling, these are things that Becerra is going to defend,” Acosta said.

Becerra has already begun making that case. He has responded to criticism of his environmental policy positions by highlighting his record of battling the Trump administration. As California attorney general during Trump’s first term, he sued over rollbacks to environmental rules, including clean car standards and endangered species protections. He also established a Bureau of Environmental Justice to enforce environmental quality and public health laws.

“Let my record show that I take climate change seriously,” Becerra wrote in a post on X last week, highlighting his record of launching environmental justice offices in California and at the federal Health Department. “And now, as Governor, I’ll fight to protect California communities that are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, and push for progressive environmental policies that will help California combat climate change.”

Even so, the politics remain difficult. Polling consistently shows Democratic voters are deeply concerned about climate change, yet increasingly reluctant to pay higher costs to reach the state’s climate goals.

Half of the Democrats surveyed in a Public Policy Institute of California poll released earlier this month said they oppose Newsom’s executive order on gas cars, a 6-point increase compared to last July. Nearly 80 percent of Democrats said that stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost. But that support shrank to 58 percent when they were asked whether they are willing to pay higher electricity bills.

Becerra emerged from a crowded field of Democrats in the state’s top-two primary, along with Republican former Fox News Host Steve Hilton, after embracing a cost-of-living focus that has gripped Sacramento in the wake of Trump’s return to office. The shift has empowered moderate Democrats who have derailed legislation to hold fossil fuel companies liable for climate disasters and raised concerns about the costs behind the state’s climate goals.

Newsom himself has adjusted to those political realities.

The governor signed a bill last year to expand oil drilling in Kern County, a move prompted by the closure of two refineries that stunned environmental groups after Newsom for years had hammered Big Oil as the villain behind high gas prices.

The California Air Resources Board also weakened the state’s cap-and-invest program earlier this year, after the oil industry warned that increasingly stringent requirements to reduce carbon emissions would raise gas prices.

Republican consultant Rob Stutzman argued that Becerra could have a unique opportunity to accelerate that rethinking of California’s climate goals, and position himself as a leader on the issue within the Democratic Party nationally. But he wonders if the Trump administration will “give Becerra some room” before “complicating his political path.”

“The threat to that is Donald Trump, because of the pressure that would be upon Becerra to resist and fight any [federal] intervention,” Stutzman said. Becerra will have to finesse the situation so it doesn’t look like “Trump is imposing anything upon him and his state.”

Not everyone watching the campaign believes that the Trump administration will play such a large role in determining the next governor’s strategy, though.

Elizabeth Ashford, a political consultant who worked for former Govs. Brown and Arnold Schwarzenegger, argued that while a hostile relationship with the White House can complicate governing, Becerra will be guided by polling that shows that cost of living is Californians’ top concern.

“No good governor is going to just wake up every morning and look at Washington, D.C., and decide, how am I gonna fight that fight today? That's not the first job of a governor,” Ashford said. “The first job of a governor is to wake up every day and say, how can I make it possible for people of all parties to live here and to thrive here?”

For their part, environmental groups are now betting that the political pressures that shaped Becerra's primary campaign against Steyer won't necessarily define how he governs.

“Look, when you're trying to differentiate yourself from Tom Steyer in an election, there's nowhere to go to the left,” said Mary Creasman, CEO of California Environmental Voters. “The only way to go is to the right, and I think that's part of what we saw.”

Katie Valenzuela, a policy consultant who works with environmental justice groups, said that she is also cautiously optimistic that Becerra will be more willing to engage with advocates on climate policy now that he’s emerged from a crowded primary where “he needed to distinguish himself from his competitors.”

Valenzuela pointed to his decision to establish a Bureau of Environmental Justice, which helped him win support from some environmental justice groups even as most major environmental organizations backed Steyer in the primary. Becerra was endorsed by the Central California Environmental Justice Network and Leadership Counsel for Justice and Accountability.

Now, advocates say they are closely watching who he taps to lead his energy and environmental policy.

One name that has surfaced repeatedly is Arsenio Mataka, who served as Becerra’s senior adviser on environmental policy during his time as AG and is currently the Bay Area Air District’s deputy executive officer for equity and community programs.

Mataka, a long-time environmental justice advocate, didn’t respond to requests for comment.

“I think we're all assuming that Arsenio might be in the running,” Valenzuela said. “He comes from a family of advocates and activists, and I think he is the right type of person that I would like to see in this role.”

Whoever ultimately fills those critical roles in the governor’s office and at agencies like the California Air Resources Board will, like Becerra, be forced into the difficult position of crafting a cost-conscious vision that still remains defiant to Trump.

“The hard part is: how do you really make California affordable when you know there are a bunch of regulations in place, like getting rid of natural gas, that could have costs?” Acosta said.