Trump Heads Into General Election Season With String Of Primary Losses

President Donald Trump loves to brag about his near-spotless record of endorsing winners in Republican primaries.

That winning streak faded this summer. His picks for governor in four states failed to win the nomination, including the notorious election denier Mike Lindell in Minnesota. A pair of Trump-backed House candidates in Michigan and Tennessee lost their primaries this month. And his emphatic early support for Sen. Darline Graham didn’t deter a slew of Republicans from jumping into the race for her late brother’s Senate seat — forcing her into a runoff.

The president has still endorsed far more winners than losers overall. But with his approval ratings slumping and Republicans struggling to build momentum in the midterm campaign, the exceptions to the rule may increasingly be telling a story about Trump’s prized clout.

Trump deferred to loyalty in many of these endorsements, perhaps putting his record at risk for especially close allies. But unlike in 2022 – when his stamp of approval all but assured Republicans would get through the primary, only to face mixed results in the general – his endorsement this year wasn’t enough to overcome candidates’ flaws.

Trump’s reach will be tested again next week in Florida when his gubernatorial nominee, Rep. Bryon Donalds, is on the ballot. Another test will come later this month in South Carolina when Graham needs to clear her runoff against Freedom Caucus stalwart Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.).

“In Florida and throughout the country, Donald Trump’s endorsement is a major factor in any Republican primary. Usually, it is decisive, but there are exceptions,” said former Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.).

Trump has backed 17 candidates in open Republican gubernatorial primaries this year, according to a POLITICO analysis of his public endorsements. Ten of those candidates have gone on to win their primaries, but four have fallen. His remaining three endorsements are in Florida, Oklahoma and Wyoming.

A White House official pushed back on any criticism, citing a 98 percent success rate in 238 endorsements and 233 wins.

“President Trump’s endorsement is the most powerful endorsement in the history of American politics. Anyone claiming otherwise is a complete and utter fool,” the official said, granted anonymity to discuss the administration’s thinking.

The official did not share the endorsement list but a similar success rate tallied by Ballotpedia includes many effectively uncontested races, such as incumbents running unopposed.

“When you're making so many endorsements, you’re bound to have a few that don’t go well,” added a senior White House official, also granted anonymity to discuss the results.

But the recent losses in several key races expose holes in the president’s ability to sway a race, argued two Republican donors, granted anonymity to speak candidly.

“He can’t impose his will over bad candidates or candidates that have baggage,” said one of the people. In addition, Trump’s remarks have to fit voters’ narrative. They are “interested in what he has to say but if it goes against their instincts, they’re not going to be told what to do.”

The issues Trump is focused on – national issues and characters – aren’t always what voters want to hear about, a point that is particularly problematic for gubernatorial nominees who need to focus on local issues.

“The president’s a little more in tune to national issues that would be a little more relevant to a senators’ race – the Iran war or whatever AOC’s up to are much more of issues for the Senate race than a governor’s race,” the second person said, referring to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).

In some cases, Trump has also waited until the last minute to issue an opinion, perhaps limiting his reach. The frequency of his hallmark campaign rallies has also abated, in most cases replaced with a brief telerally on the eve of an election — a far cry from his voter-mobilizing in-person appearances with his slate of local candidates.

In South Carolina’s governor race, Trump parachuted into the primary with an endorsement for South Carolina Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette just over a week before the first round of voting in early June, which vaulted her to a first place finish. But she plummeted in the polls as Alan Wilson, the attorney general, consolidated support from Palmetto State powerbrokers and their former primary opponents, prompting Trump to issue a rare double endorsement — a last-minute attempt to prevent an embarrassing stumble, and one that dealt a fatal blow to his original pick’s campaign.

Some Republicans see a similar situation playing out again in the state’s snap primary for Senate, which will pit a little-known Trump-backed candidate against a longtime fixture of the state’s conservative circles.

“The real barometer [of Trump’s endorsement power] will be the South Carolina Senate runoff, a state where he initially backed the wrong candidate for governor before endorsing two candidates,” said a third Republican donor.

But South Carolina’s dynamics – the sudden death of Lindsey Graham and the quick selection of his sister, Darline – may test whether Trump’s influence can overcome a battle of local Republican factions.

“You have people who are already dug into a lot of candidates, or already have a built-in fan base in the state,” argued one Palmetto State GOP official, granted anonymity to openly discuss the party's contentious primary. “I think it has less to do with [Trump’s influence] than it does with personalities and whether or not these candidates already have any built-in supporters and name ID.”

In Georgia, money played a huge part in taking down Trump’s pick. Rick Jackson, who ran a campaign closely aligned to Trump’s MAGA brand, injected over $100 million of his personal wealth to beat Burt Jones, a longtime ally of the president who had his backing from the outset of the race.

In Iowa, Trump endorsed Randy Feenstra just days before the primary, proving to not be enough to influence voters. And, in Minnesota, Lindell touting his close ties to the president didn’t bode well against state house Speaker Lisa Demuth, who has served in state politics since 2018. Lindell also did not spend on TV or digital ads.

Trump’s endorsements for House seats haven’t always led to success either.

Trump rallied in key battleground state Michigan with Amir Hassan and other candidates just before the primary. Hassan lost to Tom Smith, a retired engineer who had dropped out of the race in mid-July and endorsed another candidate.

After Rep. Andy Ogles lost to former agriculture commissioner Charlie Hatcher — in a red seat Democrats are targeting in November — Trump called him “a person who I remained loyal to even though he had virtually no chance of winning.” The congressman faced a number of controversies since he was first elected in 2022, including a now-deleted homophobic social media post this year and an FBI search of his phone during a 2024 investigation into campaign finance records.

“He’s been running this for 12 years now and he’s got friends and enemies across all these state parties and in many cases he’s picking who he wants,” said the second GOP donor. “Not necessarily who is going to win but who has been most loyal to him.”

Megan Messerly contributed to this report.