Trump Leaves Florida Republicans Guessing Ahead Of August Primaries

TALLAHASSEE, Florida — Ahead of the Aug. 18 primaries, the electoral fate of multiple Sunshine State Republicans could come down to one Florida man: President Donald Trump.

As Florida's congressional delegation potentially undergoes a massive transformation — with mid-cycle redistricting and multiple lawmakers departing netting Republicans up to eight new members — Trump's endorsement could prove definitive.

“I think whoever the president endorses will probably win,” said Rep. Randy Fine, who overwhelmingly won a Republican primary en route to a special election win last year with backing from Trump. “I experienced that. I got 83 percent. It wasn’t because of my good looks and personality. It was because of the president.”

Trump's endorsements have loomed large in Florida politics for the past decade. His support of Ron DeSantis in his first run for Florida’s highest office in 2018 catapulted the now-two-term-governor over the state’s GOP agriculture commissioner. In several other states, Trump’s endorsement has come near the end of the primary cycle but still proved pivotal, such as when he picked Texas Attorney General Ken Paxtonover incumbent Sen. John Cornyn about a week before the runoff between the two, a move that helped unseat the Republican incumbent.

“We are obviously anticipating endorsements in Florida and his endorsement is the gold standard,” said Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power, who is running in the 2nd District GOP primary. “I think the people he picks will win here in Florida.”

A member of the president’s political operation, granted anonymity as they were not authorized to talk publicly about Trump endorsements, said the president could “weigh into some” of the Florida races but did not give any specifics on timing.

Trump’s role as a kingmaker in his adopted home state is reinforced by a wave of television ads — including GOP candidates running this year often mentioning the president. GOP candidates promise to help, support or stand by the president in ads blanketing local airwaves.

And the overriding selling point in Florida Republican primaries this year is proximity to and support for Trump, though some Republican primaries have featured barbed attacks over China or candidates' past support for Democrats.

Power, a candidate in Florida’s 2nd District, has run an ad that includes footage from two years ago of Trump praising Power.

Chris Collins, a former New York member of Congress who was pardoned by Trump in 2020 for charges related to insider trading, is now running in Florida’s 19th District. Collins, the first sitting member of Congress to endorse Trump in his 2016 presidential run, proclaims himself “the original Trump conservative” who “voted with him 100 percent." Belinda Keiser, the top executive for a private university, points out how she was one of those picked to cast Florida’s electoral college votes for Trump.

“He’s the best president of my lifetime and it’s not even close,” said Keiser, who is running in Florida’s 22nd District, in one of her ads.

Despite the steady dose of praise, however, Trump has so far only endorsed in one open seat. In March, Trump announced his support for Sydney Gruters, a college foundation executive and wife of Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters. Sydney Gruters is running for Florida’s 16th District, which is currently held by outgoing Rep. Vern Buchanan.

Buchanan is one of four GOP members either outright retiring or leaving to run for another office. Rep. Byron Donalds’ decision to run for Florida governorsparked a 10-candidate pile-up in the 19th District in a race that has two former members of Congress (albeit previously from other states) as well as a former Illinois state senator, a broadcasting executive, a former congressional staffer and others.

There’s not much time left for Trump to chime in. Mail-in ballots for the primary have already been sent, and early voting will be fully underway by Aug. 8. Trump’s potential endorsements are a source of constant chatter and speculation among a half-dozen Republican consultants and operatives POLITICO asked this past week.

One veteran Florida Republican operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly, suggested that the war in Iran as well as the delay in mid-decade redistricting until late spring “threw the timing off.” Florida’s new congressional map — which may help Republicans pick up four more seats — was not in place until May and immediately drew lawsuits.

“Everyone is waiting for the president,” said the operative. “We all anticipated him to act sooner.”

One veteran Florida Republican pollster and consultant said a Trump endorsement could still sway voters up to the eve of the primary.

Ryan Tyson said that the GOP primaries in Florida are dominated by older voters and that roughly half of the GOP primary electorate cast ballots within the final four days. Tyson added that the one limiting factor is how quickly campaigns can get the word out about the endorsement.

“It’s the most important thing in the primary,” said Tyson. “I think Trump can impact a primary in Florida up to 24 hours out.”