Trump’s Endorsement And A Centrist Dem: Florida Governor's Race Is Set

TALLAHASSEE, Florida — GOP Rep. Byron Donalds and Democratic former Rep. David Jolly, emerged victorious in their respective Florida primaries Tuesday — setting up dueling tests of the power of President Donald Trump’s endorsements and the ability of more moderate Democrats to succeed in ruby-red states.

Donalds has been a strong supporter of Trump’s agenda, garnering him numerous Truth Social endorsement posts, and could become the state’s first ever Black governor if he wins. The Republican frontrunner bested several GOP challengers, including Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former state House Speaker Paul Renner and investor and campaign provocateur James Fishback.

And despite his primary win and a campaign focused on continued pressing of conservative policies, Donalds wasn’t able to reap the nod of one of the most popular Republicans in the state: Gov. Ron DeSantis.

On the Democratic side, Jolly could end a humiliating losing streak for Democrats that dates back to the ‘90s. And to pull the upset in a solidly-red state, he’ll attempt a more moderate tack than the progressive streak that has swept across nationwide Democratic primaries.

Jolly, a one-time Republican who has already tapped former Rep. Gwen Graham as his running mate, defeated several Democrats in his primary, including state Rep. Dotie Joseph. His path to the nomination became easier after Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings pulled out of the governor’s race in June after he was diagnosed with treatable prostate cancer.

Both Donalds and Jolly had already been campaigning ahead of the Tuesday primary as if their general election matchup was inevitable. Donalds has labeled Jolly a “Trojan horse” for the far left who would undo conservative policies that DeSantis and other Florida Republicans have installed over decades while Jolly contends that his GOP competitor will keep pushing “culture wars” and not seriously address the state’s affordability crisis.

Donalds enters the general election home stretch with a sizable financial advantage built up due to large contributions from Florida’s business interests and billionaire CEOs such as Miami’s Ken Griffin, who alone donated $10 million. During the DeSantis years, Republicans have also stacked up a significant structural edge and now outnumber Democrats by more than 1.5 million registered voters.

But the political environment in Florida is unsettled amid the same economic frustrations that are in place around the country. Additionally, DeSantis declined to endorse anyone ahead of the primary and in the past has been critical of Donalds. Recent polls have also seen a decline in Trump’s popularity in his adopted home state.

A July poll from the University of North Florida has Donald with only a 5 percent lead over Jolly. Other polls done by GOP consultants and shared with POLITICO ahead of the primary had also shown the contest in single digits.

The 47-year-old Donalds has represented southwest Florida in Congress since winning a bruising primary back in 2020. Before he ran for the House he spent four years in the Florida Legislature where he pushed to expand school choice programs and was a notable no vote on the state’s landmark gun legislation passed in the aftermath of the shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School.

Donalds was once seen as a close ally with DeSantis and appeared on stage with him the night that the governor crushed Charlie Crist in the 2022 gubernatorial election. But the relationship with the two men chilled after DeSantis mounted a bid for president in 2024. Donalds backed Trump and in the summer of 2023 called out the DeSantis administration over contentious teaching standards dealing with slavery.

Jolly, a 53-year-old attorney and former lobbyist who once worked for longtime GOP Rep. Bill Young, won a special election to Congress in early 2014 as a Republican. After he lost to Crist in 2016, Jolly became a fixture on MSNBC where he routinely criticized Trump. Jolly left the Republican Party and became an independent before becoming a Democrat last year in advance of his run for governor.

The winner in November will take over after an eight-year run by DeSantis that saw him become the most powerful governor in the state’s history. DeSantis had tremendous sway over the Legislature and pushed through a long line of conservative policies dealing with abortion, gender identity, race, and education. But he lost clout after his failed 2024 presidential bid.

Despite not winning an endorsement from the current governor, Donalds has pledged to defend what he calls “the Florida Dream” and keep intact the policies and priorities of DeSantis.

“We are on a mission to keep Florida free and to keep Florida red because the Democrats can keep the crazy in California,” Donalds said this week during a campaign rally in Plant City in central Florida. “They can have the nonsense in Chicago and they can keep [Mayor Zohran] Mamdani in New York. But they’re never going to have power again in Florida.”

Donalds has also promised to build up the state as a financial industry powerhouse. And he said he would tackle affordability problems by cutting property taxes, addressing insurance rates and the cost of housing.

In the last few weeks Donalds has also taken time to zing his general election opponent. In his final television ad before the primary, he called Jolly “radical” for supporting what he calls the “trans agenda,” including backing gender affirming surgery for children. The ad included a video of Jolly saying he would “buy a can of paint” to help paint murals for the “LGBTQ plus community.”

Jolly swiftly responded to the ad, saying “I’m running for governor because life is too expensive. Floridians are worried about the cost of housing, healthcare, food, and gas — not the color of their sidewalks, or the governor’s opinion on their personal life.”

Jolly in his campaign appearances has also maintained that Donalds’ large financial advantage means that Donalds will side with interest groups — including those promoting data centers — if he wins.

“He will sell you out for a buck as your next governor,” Jolly said during a campaign rally in Tampa on the eve of the election. “Your life is too expensive and politicians like Byron Donalds are embedded with special interests.”