Trump’s Intel Agencies Back His Claims On Peace Deals, Europe

The intelligence community’s latest threat assessment reinforces Trump administration narratives on immigration and global peace deals, while also laying out a stark picture of growing threats to the American homeland.

The 2026 Annual Threats Assessment, compiled by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, concluded that while China still poses a major threat to the homeland, it is unlikely to invade Taiwan next year. The report also notes that there are growing risks that multiple nations could target the U.S. mainland with missile strikes, and finds that Iran is likely to seek “revenge” against the U.S. for the killing of its leaders.

Here are five takeaways from the annual report.

The report lines up with Trump administration global stances

The report — traditionally an apolitical document meant to lay out threats as the intelligence community assesses them — now incorporates several Trump administration political priorities.

For example, it highlights peace negotiations led by President Donald Trump that have “deescalated the most recent nuclear tensions” between India and Pakistan, while noting the ceasefire negotiated last year. The report also highlights the peace deal last year between Azerbaijan and Armenia, saying that this created the opportunity for “lasting peace between the nations.”

Past annual reports almost never mention presidents by name. But the 2026 edition praises Trump several times for specific policies, including Trump’s “sealing” of the U.S.-Mexico border, which it said strengthened border security.

The report’s language mirrors the administration’s National Security Strategy on its assessment of Europe’s future. The strategy argued that Europe is facing “civilizational erasure” due to large migration to the continent, and new regulatory authorities that the European Union has rolled out. This year’s intel assessment takes a similar tone, concluding that immigrants to EU nations have not assimilated, and that this has led to “some immigrant youth” becoming radicalized.

“Much of Europe faces challenges or capacity limitations that inhibit robust security cooperation in the near term,” the report reads. “Several EU members face mounting levels of national debt, coupled with anemic growth. In addition, many countries across the continent are contending with the effects of large-scale migration, to include Islamist radicalization.”

China isn’t going for Taiwan (yet)

The intelligence community has assessed that Chinese leader Xi Jinping does not have a timeline to achieve unification with Taiwan or “currently plans” to execute an invasion of the island in 2027, when the Pentagon believes the Chinese military will be ready to mount an attack.

But the 18 U.S. spy agencies still believe that China is deterred by the risk of failure in the operation and the possibility of the U.S. intervening on the side of Taiwan — even as the Pentagon is tied down with an open-ended military campaign against Iran.

“Chinese officials recognize that an amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be extremely challenging and carry a high risk of failure, especially in the event of U.S. intervention," the report said.

But the U.S. would also pay a price for getting involved in a potential war, the I.C. said, including losing access to trade and semiconductors, and the threat of cyberattacks against U.S. transportation hubs.

The U.S. homeland is at risk of missile attacks

The report warns that the U.S. has spotted China, Russia, and North Korea developing new weapons systems that could threaten America at home. Even Iran and Pakistan — which seemed to be warming up to the Trump administration after tensions erupted with India in 2025 — also pose threats.

In total, the U.S. intelligence community expects the number of foreign missiles pointed at the nation to rise from 3,000 today to more than 16,000 weapons by 2035.

“China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan have been researching and developing an array of novel, advanced, or traditional missile delivery systems with nuclear and conventional payloads, that can strike the Homeland,” the report said.

Though China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are long-term U.S. adversaries, the report does not make clear what would motivate a Pakistani strike.

Growing foreign conventional and nuclear missile arsenals also pose a threat to satellites. “Russia is developing a new satellite meant to carry a nuclear weapon as an antisatellite capability,” the report said.

The intelligence agencies said that China “probably” fears that Trump’s ambitious Golden Dome missile shield will increase the likelihood the U.S. would intervene in a war against Taiwan, which may drive China to the table on arms control agreements, but cited no evidence for the claim (China has long resisted engaging in arms reduction talks on its nuclear program).

Russia has the upper hand in Ukraine

The U.S. intelligence community sees Russia holding the upper hand in its invasion of Ukraine and “sees little reason to stop fighting” despite the Trump administration’s peace efforts and recent gains by Ukrainian forces.

The finding appears to contradict Trump’s recent comments to POLITICO that “Putin is ready to make a deal” and that Ukraine has not shown enough willingness to negotiate.

“Moscow almost certainly remains confident that it will prevail on the battlefield in Ukraine and force a settlement on its terms,” the report said.

But in a hat tip to the administration’s peace effort, it said the ongoing talks to end the war “hold the potential to change this dynamic and ameliorate some of the conflict’s regional effects,” hinting that the U.S. and Russia could return to “an improved bilateral geostrategic and commercial relationship."

The possibility of a U.S.-Russia kumbaya moment at the end of the Ukraine war could be mitigated by the Kremlin fielding missiles that threaten the U.S. homeland and challenging the American foothold in the Arctic, which the report also highlights.

Iran will take strong action in retaliation for the killing of its leader

The intelligence community was clear in the report that the Iranian regime will pursue revenge for the recent killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by U.S. and Israeli forces.

"If the regime survives, Tehran almost certainly will seek to exact revenge,” the report reads, noting that this retaliation would be on top of an effort avenge the U.S. killing of former IRGC-QF Commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020.

The report also warns that if the current regime remains in power, Iran will “recover and rebuild its influence,” and will pose a “viable retaliatory threat to Israeli and U.S. interests.”

At the same time, the intelligence community backed the Trump administration’s assessment that the war against Iran, now in its third week, has put “Axis of Resistance” nations “on the back foot.” This axis includes Iran, along with Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.