Trump's Job Market Is Proving Resilient. Consumer Confidence Is Still Sagging.

The U.S. labor market is chugging along, still posting job gains as the unemployment rate ticks down. It’s not enough to get Americans amped about President Donald Trump’s economy.

Job growth slowed in June after ballooning over the last three months, with the Labor Department reporting Thursday that employers added 57,000 jobs. That was less than expected and down from 129,000 the month before, but the unemployment rate — arguably a better indicator of the market's health — dropped to 4.2 percent.

Some positive trends are emerging for workers: The number of job openings across the economy has spiked since early spring — including in politically relevant blue-collar fields like manufacturing and construction — and private-sector job growth is expanding at the strongest clip since Trump returned to the White House.

But it’s not “quite enough to really translate into consumers and households feeling it,” said Matthew Martin, a senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

Sixty percent of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy, according to a recent PBS News/NPR/Marist poll. Voter confidence has been dented by a spike in consumer prices — a similar dynamic to President Joe Biden's administration, where robust job growth was overwhelmed by concern over rising inflation.

Wage gains have continued to steadily decline since cresting in the first half of the Biden administration, according to an Atlanta Fed tracker. And paychecks have failed to keep up with inflation over the last year as surging fuel and energy costs — along with Trump’s tariff policies — depleted workers’ spending power. Americans began to save less as prices climbed, and the number of credit card users who are seriously delinquent on payment is ticking higher.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai, in a post on X, highlighted growth in manufacturing and factory construction jobs. "With a new announcement just today by Magnitude 7 Metals about restarting an aluminum smelter in Missouri, Americans can count on the best being yet to come," he wrote.

A healthy labor market undoubtedly creates meaningful political advantages for incumbents. But that’s only true if workers — i.e., voters — have confidence in their ability to find new work that will pay them more money

And confidence is weak. The Conference Board reported this week that the percentage of consumers who now say it’s hard to get a new job is at its highest level since before the Covid-19 vaccine was widely available. And since actions speak louder than words, the rate at which people are quitting their jobs — which is often viewed as a proxy for confidence in the ability to get new work — is as low as it’s been since mid-2020.

But signs that job growth isn’t speeding up could also be a boon to Trump by reducing some of the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Central bankers have been watching for indications that a strong labor market could bolster consumer spending and further push up inflation, even as higher costs from the spike in oil prices fade.

“We still see a path for the Fed to stay on hold for the rest of the year, however any further upside surprises to inflation could convince the committee to hike sooner rather than later,” said Kay Haigh, global head of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.