Trump Turns Defense Into Midterm Campaign Pitch — Never Mind Iran

Most Republican candidates don’t want to talk about the Iran war. Instead, the president and his allies are pitching a different security message to voters — the economic benefits of American military might.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has spent the closing stretch before the midterms crisscrossing swing states like Ohio and Wisconsin to promote a renewed defense industrial base. Vice President JD Vance declared a “manufacturing renaissance” at a defense tech factory in Maine. And President Donald Trump took a rare trip to Baltimore to announce a new shipyard for autonomous submarines.

Their messages never mention the knock-on effects of the military conflict in Iran, such as surging gas prices or the depletion of weapons stockpiles. But they give the administration a platform to champion U.S. jobs and shift voters’ attention from the uncertainty of a floundering war to the economic bonanza of military strength.

“I wish all Americans could be in the Oval Office and watch the president behind the Resolute Desk look at defense companies and tell them, ‘I don't want one more shift,” Hegseth said last week in Dayton, Ohio. “‘I want a new plant. I want two new plants. I want three new plants. I want 3 times, 4 times, 5 times more.’”

The political nature of the effort reinforces the difference between Hegseth and previous Pentagon chiefs, who did not campaign for candidates — as the Defense secretary did this year — or focus their messages on swing states. While Hegseth has spent the past year embarking on a defense industry buildup tour known as the "Arsenal of Freedom,” he has spent recent weeks almost exclusively in battleground states.

But it’s unclear whether highlighting a rejuvenated American defense industrial base will prove effective given the war’s spiraling unpopularity. Numerous Republican candidates in tight races — from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to Ohio Sen. Jon Husted — have avoided even mentioning the conflict, despite the possibility of renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran after the election.

“Do you think with less than a week there’s enough time for them to be able to amplify that sort of message?” said a defense official, who like others was granted anonymity to speak candidly about internal decisions. “They’re holding off on reengaging Iran until afterwards in an effort to dampen the impact of that deeply unpopular venture and the economic fallout.”

The Pentagon, in a statement, said Hegseth was “accelerating and scaling our defense industrial base. This has been a priority since Day 1.”

The White House said the administration was highlighting its efforts to strengthen the country.

“Democrats destroyed our military; President Trump has rebuilt it and continues to strengthen our defense industrial base,” said Olivia Wales, a White House spokesperson. “President Trump and Secretary Hegseth are unleashing the Arsenal of Freedom to restore defense manufacturing strength, increase production speed, and accelerate weapons production.”

The administration has only a handful of days left to convince voters that a GOP majority improves their lives. But industrial projects have notoriously long lead times, which makes the defense focus especially unusual.

Some of the announcements appear to repackage years-old news, including Hegseth’s visit to examine progress on the “Doomsday” aircraft in Dayton, a contract first handed out during the Biden administration. A submarine components repair center Trump touted in Ohio this month was first championed by former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who’s running this year to reclaim his spot.

The retail-style promotion of new projects also has a classic campaign note about it: High spending creates jobs at home.

"It’s no different than touting any other program or grant,” said Douglas Heye, a veteran GOP strategist and former communications director for the Republican National Committee. “It allows candidates to talk about getting results for their state or district.”

The administration has tied the defense buildup to job growth, even as the cost of the eight-month war with Iran has climbed to more than $47 billion.

Trump and Hegseth announced this summer that the Pentagon would invest $10 billion in weapons production in Pennsylvania — which features several decisive races —- and create 4,000 jobs. The Pentagon this month agreed to fund a guided missile destroyer built at Bath Iron Works in Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces a tough reelection fight.

“It’s pretty transparently transactional to me,” said a Democratic congressional candidate in a battleground state. “My sense is not many people, if any, believe it at all given it is so close to the midterms.”

But if Democrats win, the next Congress may have little appetite to boost defense spending, including Trump’s $1.5 trillion defense budget.

“It helps for [the White House] to keep attention on the national security base,” said Eric Fanning, Army secretary under former President Barack Obama and now CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association. “But there is only so much you can do to influence Congress.”

A defense spending boom also doesn’t directly translate to more money in voters’ pocketbooks, at least in the short term.

“Investing defense dollars is less efficient than other forms of economic development — full stop,” said a former defense official.

The defense emphasis may also carry limited sway with voters worried about their long-term economic security. A Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday found that just 16% of Wisconsin voters said they were better off from a year ago, and 42% said they were worse off. That number has dropped steadily since the start of the Iran war.

“It's partly opposition to the war itself,” said Charles Franklin, a professor of law and public policy at Marquette who directed the poll. “But it's also especially dissatisfaction with the consequences that the war has had economically.”