U.s.-iran Ceasefire Set To Expire With Talks At A Standstill

The fragile monthlong ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran appears set to expire Monday absent a last-minute deal to extend it and potentially end the war between the two nations.

A senior White House official, granted anonymity to share details of the negotiating process, described the situation between the two countries as “static” ahead of the Monday ceasefire expiration deadline. The official had not heard of any forthcoming extension as of Friday afternoon.

“It doesn't matter how close or how far we are,” the official said. “What matters is if Iran wants to come to the table and agree to a deal. Right now, they haven't done that.”

Iranian negotiators have also indicated that the two countries remain deadlocked in talks to revive the interim agreement that President Donald Trump signed in France in June, Reuters reported this week. Sticking points include the status of frozen Iranian financial assets and ship operations in the Strait of Hormuz, including the ongoing U.S. blockade.

“Both sides at this point have a vested interest in continuing ceasefire-blockade because each thinks it might work for them and each thinks alternatives like either military escalation or ‘surrender’ — for the U.S. huge new Iranian demands, for Iran a return to the [memorandum of understanding] — are less palatable,” said James Jeffrey, a former ambassador who served in the Middle East during three presidential administrations, including Trump's first term.

The Iranian leadership ramped up its ceasefire demands in recent days to include compensation for war-related damages, the release of frozen Iranian assets and the cessation of all threats against Iran, including its proxies in other countries.

Negotiations to end the war, now in its sixth month, have been especially rocky in part because the Iranian governing structure is split into three factions, the senior official said. Those groups, whose goals are at times radically different, include the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, religious clerics and "government leadership,” said the official, who added that an agreement with one group doesn’t necessarily mean buy-in from the others.

“We know that we have to get sign off from everybody to be effective,” the official said. “They know where we stand, many times we don't know where they stand. They keep changing the goalposts.”

Active attacks in the region are another complication that threatens to escalate the conflict at any time. On Thursday, two tankers crossing the strait were hit by drones.

Assuming the deadline comes and goes, the stalemate will continue against the backdrop of a midterm U.S. election in less than three months that will be decided by an exasperated and war-weary electorate. Gas prices, which had been falling, started climbing again this week, hitting $4.08 on Friday, according to AAA.

The White House is hoping that an economic pressure campaign spurred by threats of an indefinite U.S. blockade of Iranian shores will be enough to get Iran to come to the table. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Newsmax Thursday that the country would roll out an “economic isolation” campaign next week as it looks to further choke the country.

A second White House official, also granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks, said Trump retains all “options if Iran continues to engage in terrorism and refuses to make a deal.”

“The crushing sanctions and one of the most successful blockades in history have crippled Iran’s economy and has left Iran completely broke, and it would be wise for Iran to agree to a deal,” the official said in a statement. “Otherwise, they know what will happen.”

Trump has repeatedly pointed to Iran’s dire financial state, highlighting fuel shortages, massive inflation and growing unrest as a sign that their negotiating position is weak.

“There are more tools at our disposal that we can use to continue punishing Iran and crippling their economy, which is in a very weak spot as it is right now,” White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told reporters Friday.

But it’s unclear if that economic pressure will be enough to persuade a regime that has so far endured despite physical and economic threats.

“I think [the Trump administration] will find that the Iranian pain threshold is just too high for the economic pressure to work,” said one person familiar with the negotiations, granted anonymity to discuss them. “And they have to act pretty quickly if this is going to have any chance of stabilizing before the election.”

Trump’s constant barrage of threats are only hardening the regime’s position, said Beni Sabti, a researcher in the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

The Iranian leadership likely sees itself as having the upper-hand in negotiations – a stance that’s ultimately reinforced when Trump’s threats are empty, Sabti said.

“It's about the psychology, it's not about how strong I am physically, like the West measures things,” he said. “In their eyes, they are very strong now. They are controlling the world.”

Part of that ideology could be influencing Iran’s demand that it be allowed to impose tolls or other transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz, which the U.S. continues to oppose, he said.

The senior official insisted that any tolls or fees through the strait are a “non-starter” for the U.S.

“No tollings. No fees. No controls,” the official said. “However anyone wants to characterize it, that's a non-starter.”