Washington’s New Game: Let’s Make A Deal

Could Washington be entering a new era of deal-making? That’s the question many of the capital’s politicians and policy wonks are asking.

The signals are decidedly mixed. There’s certainly little trust built up between Democratic leaders and President Donald Trump. And some hard-line Republicans, including Stephen Miller in the White House and Jim Jordan in the House, have been elevated to new positions of power and have little apparent interest in deal-making with Democrats.

But Trump likes to promote himself as a dealmaker and expressed at least an initial willingness to work with the Democrats who will soon control Congress. With two years left in office, he may at some point make the calculation that he should score some wins for the history books. And even if he doesn’t, the math for overriding his vetoes just got easier.

So there are bipartisan deals out there to be made, should a mercurial president and enough members of the two warring political parties decide to make them. The parameters for many have been debated and outlined in white papers and policy conferences for years if not decades. Now that the 2026 midterm elections have reset the political equation in Washington, expect to see at least some of the below become part of the political conversation in the months to come.

ICE Restrictions

Possible Deal: Bar immigration officers from operating at or near polling sites

Background: Federal law is already explicit in banning “any troops or armed men at any place where a general or special election is held,” unless to “repel armed enemies of the United States[.]” But Democrats spent much of 2026 warning that Trump’s aggressive ICE raidscould stifle voter turnout in places with large immigrant populations, even among naturalized citizen voters or voters of color who fear being racially profiled. Homeland Security officialsrepeatedly downplayedthe concerns, and November’s elections went on without a hiccup — but Democrats may seek to use their new upper hand in Congress to push through this guardrail that they’vealready tried,and failed, to pass.

Why It Might Happen: Trump has signaled a newfound willingness to strike immigration deals, and incoming House Homeland Security Appropriations subcommittee chair Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) has said he’s already discussed guardrails on immigration enforcement with the acting ICE director (though he hasn’t specified whether that includes a bar on immigration enforcement near polling sites).

Why It Might Not Happen: Immigration continues to be the third rail in American politics, and Congress’ appetite to take up this reform will likely coincide with their willingness to touch any immigration-related measures.

— Samuel Benson

Recycling

Possible Deal: First-ever federal rules to govern what goes in Americans’ recycling bins

Background: Shockingly low statistics on how much plastic actually gets recycled — only about 9% — have motivated seven progressive states over the past five years topass "polluter pays" laws for packaging, charging companies fees for using hard-to-recycle materials. That patchwork of regulations is creating a distribution nightmare for big-name brands that face different packaging requirements for each state. Theirefforts to get Congress topreempt the state laws have stagnated amid opposition from Democrats and some moderate Republicans.

Why It Might Happen: Industry might be worried enough now to cut a deal with Sen. Jeff Merkley, the Oregon Democrat whois in line to take the gavel of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee and has taken onplastic pollution as a pet issue. So long as there's support from industry, it's likely to get the green light from Trump, who signed into lawtwo bills on tackling plastic waste in oceans during his first term.

Why It Might Not Happen: Recycling is far afield from Democrats’ top priorities like affordability, corruption and data centers. Despite bipartisan buy-in for fixing the nation's recycling programs, there’s still lots of debate over the details, includingflailing end markets, newindustry-promoted technologies,legal threats anddata protected as trade secrets.

– Ellie Borst

Drug Pricing

Possible Deal: Codification of Trump's most-favored-nation drug pricing agreements and expansion of Medicare drug price negotiations

Background: Trump wants Congress to write into law the 26 "most-favored-nation" deals he's reached with drug companies in which they've agreed to lower prices for Americans in exchange for tariff relief. Trump says Americans should pay no more for drugs than people in other wealthy nations. The pharmaceutical industry opposes codification of the MFN deals and so do most Republicans in Congress, but Democrats are curious. Trump has also used the authority Democrats created in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act — without a single GOP vote — to negotiate what Medicare pays for a limited number of drugs. Trump, in fact, has boasted that he's driven tougher price deals than his predecessor, Joe Biden, did. Democrats would love to accelerate the program's expansion. Currently, negotiated prices are in effect for only 10 drugs, with another 15 set for January. Trump might bite if it comes with MFN codification.

Why It Might Happen: When incoming Senate Health Committee Chair Bernie Sanders proposed an amendment codifying Trump's MFN deals in April, every Democrat along with Missouri Republican Josh Hawley backed it. At the time, it wasn't enough. Next year, it could be.

Why It Might Not Happen: Democrats during the campaign criticized the Trump administration's refusal to release the terms of his MFN deals, alleging that they weren't as good for consumers as Trump said. Rather than cutting deals with him, they may prefer to focus on their campaign argument that there's something fishy about Trump's interest in drug pricing.

— Shawn Zeller

Credit Cards

Possible Deal: Cap credit card interest rates at 10 percent

Background: Trump campaigned on the idea in 2024 and briefly revived it earlier this year, but it went nowhere in Congress. It’s an idea that unites lawmakers on the populist left, like Bernie Sanders, and those on the populist right, like Josh Hawley.

Why It Might Happen: Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who is poised to become chair of the Senate Banking Committee, is pitching the idea after the midterms as an area where Democrats can work with Trump. Progressives are pushing for quick victories next year to address the affordability concerns that animated their electoral wins earlier this month. Sen.-elect James Talarico (D-Texas) is among the candidates who embraced an interest rate cap on the campaign trail. Democrats could essentially call Trump’s bluff by passing the precise policy he pitched in 2024.

Why It Might Not Happen: Banks fiercely oppose the idea, warning it would restrict access to credit, especially to low-income Americans. And the finance industry will wage a major lobbying fight to stop it. Most congressional Republicans are resistant to price controls on credit card rates and would lean on the White House to resist Democrats’ efforts to strike a deal with Trump on the issue. Trump’s uneven follow-through on the policy could again stall it.

— Michael Stratford

Meat-Packing

Possible Deal: Looser meat-packing regulations for small farms

Background: Federal regulations require that meat sold across state lines be processed in a facility with a USDA inspector on site, but lawmakers of both parties have pushed for more flexibility for small- and mid-sized farming operations. Lawmakers including Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) and Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-Maine) have proposed legislation to ease these regulations, often couching their bills as a part of a larger populist bid to take on the big four meatpackers.

Why It Might Happen: Trump has angered longtime allies in farm country, and his move to import more beef at cheaper prices helped tank Republican support among farmers and rural voters. A meatpacking deal might be a way to make peace and give members of his party running in 2028 a splashy victory to tout. It’s also a fix favored by Democrat-aligned local food advocates and the Trump-aligned Make America Healthy Again movement. The president has alreadyissued an executive order directing USDA to take administrative steps to simplify the regulatory process.

Why It Might Not Happen: Food safety advocates have long opposed proposals to change the meatpacking regulations, arguing that the bills don’t do enough to protect consumers. Democrats may also be reluctant to give Republicans any win on agriculture in the next Congress, especially one that might only make a marginal difference for ranchers and pale in comparison to the safety net fixes Democrats want.

— Marcia Brown 

Marijuana Legalization

Possible deal: Make marijuana legal for recreational use in all 50 states

Background: Trump has already arguably goneas far as a president can go on cannabis reform: moving medical marijuana to a less restrictive category under federal drug laws, and starting the process to do the same for recreational use. But a president cannot single-handedly legalize weed. For that, Trump needs Congress to remove marijuana from the Controlled Substances Act.

Why It Might Happen: With a younger, more left-leaning Congress waiting in the wings, federal cannabis reform is an obvious potential area of collaboration with Trump. Fresh off his Texas Senate win, James Talarico cited marijuana legalization to Fox Newsas an area of agreement with the president. Some congressional Republicans have long advocated for the federal government to endorse states' rights on the issue. Most red states have medical marijuana programs and some, including Missouri and Montana, are home to recreational weed markets too.

Why It Might Not Happen: The biggest hurdle likely won’t be getting Trump to sign a legalization bill. It will be crafting legislation that can balance Republican priorities like free market principles against progressive goals like giving minority and other disadvantaged entrepreneurs a leg up in a flourishing $30 billion-plus industry.

— Mona Zhang

Canadian Tariffs

Possible Deal: Repeal the tariffs on Canadian goods

Background: Trump imposed 50% tariffs on about $20 billion worth of Canadian goods in August, after a tentative trade deal between the two countries fell apart. The tariffs spurred escalation in a trade war that’s been unpopular with Americans who see Canada as a friend and ally.

Why It Might Happen: Both the House and Senate previously passed a resolution to invalidate an earlier iteration of tariffs on Canada, but it ended up becoming moot after the Supreme Court declared the tariffs were invalid. The midterms’ blue wave all but ensured a similar resolution will have enough support to pass with a simple majority in next year’s House. And in the Senate, where the bill would likely need 60 votes, there may be enough free-trade friendly Republicans spooked by the midterm results willing to strike down the president’s most unpopular tariff.

Why It Might Not Happen: The midterms swept out some of the Republican lawmakers who were most likely to buck Trump. Of the 10 GOP lawmakers who have voted against Trump’s tariffs in the past two years, only three will remain in Congress. And Democrats would need an even larger group of Republicans to cross the aisle to overcome a likely Trump veto. Plus, Trump may strike a new trade deal with the Canadians that would roll back the tariffs before the new members take office in January.

— Daniel Desrochers

Artificial Intelligence

Possible Deal: Put guardrails on the development of artificial intelligence

Background: As artificial intelligence capabilities have continued to accelerate, members on both sides of the aisle have put forth proposals to mitigate the technology’s risks, but none that have gained enough support in both chambers. Among the provisions members are looking at are kill switches that could turn off rogue AI models, vetting advanced models before they are released to the public, protections for whistleblowers who raise concerns about AI safety and embedding third-party auditors into leading labs to monitor the technology's development.

Why It Might Happen: Now, with Democrats set to enjoy a substantial majority in the House, they would only need a few Senate Republicans to buy into any safety plans they put forth to clear the 60-vote threshold the chamber requires, giving lawmakers more leeway to craft bills that satisfy their caucus. Trump has also signaled an openness to working with Democrats on policy issues — raising the possibility that he could do so on AI.

Why It Might Not Happen: But Trump has consistently said that his priority on AI policy is to allow American companies to continue to outcompete China. He may view any significant guardrails, which Democrats will likely push for, as a roadblock and veto any bills they send to his desk.

— Owen Dahlkamp and Gabby Miller

Green Energy

Possible Deal: Boost manufacturing tax credits for EVs and green energy

Background: Even as the Republican-led Congress last year tossed out consumer tax credits to help people buy electric vehicles, lawmakers preserved a manufacturing credit related to renewable energy. But the credit begins expiring for various sectors starting in 2027. The incoming Democratic-led Congress and the president could find new agreement on extending or expanding the Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit, which subsidizes factories that produce EV battery components, process critical minerals and make solar and wind components.

Why It Might Happen: Many Democrats returning to power are interested in helping bolster renewable energy. At the same time, building out domestic manufacturing is a key component of Trump’s “America First” agenda and the administration’s efforts to wean the U.S. from supply chains that China controls. While Trump and his Cabinet members regularly scoff at renewable energy, three administration officials — including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick — have toured U.S. solar manufacturing facilities in the president’s second term.

Why It Might Not Happen: Trump often bristles at the idea of the federal government helping build out wind and solar power. There also may not be sufficient political will to extend credits with expiration dates a few years out. While wind credits end after 2027, battery, solar and inverter credits run out after 2032and most critical mineral incentives expire after 2033.

— Hannah Northey

Housing Construction

Possible Deal: Beef up housing-tax incentives

Background: The lesson for Republicans and Democrats alike from the midterm elections is that voters are intensely concerned with affordability, and frustration with a lack of affordable housing is widespread. Housing tax breaks have long had broad bipartisan support in Congress, and there’s no shortage of bills sitting on the shelf with both Democratic and Republican names on them. Many of them aim to increase the supply of homes by offering developers incentives to build, especially for low- and middle-income people. Others focus on helping potential buyers, with one, for example, proposing to allow people to withdraw more money from retirement accounts tax-free when purchasing their first home.

Why it could happen: The two parties are going to be at each other’s throats over the next two years, but that doesn’t mean they won’t want some legislative wins. And aside from playing to voters’ concerns, housing tax bills also tend to be pretty uncontroversial among lawmakers. There’s a lot of different ideas out there, and the bills tend to not be terribly expensive — which is a big selling point when the government is running a $2 trillion deficit.

Why it may not happen: The 2028 presidential election is going to quickly loom over everything Congress does, and the two sides may decide they’d rather sharpen their differences for voters than risk muddling them with bipartisan legislation.

— Brian Faler

Health Insurance

Possible Deal: Restoration of “enhanced” Obamacare subsidies

Background: A conflicted Republican caucus decided at the end of 2025 to let boosted Obamacare subsidies Democrats created in 2021 expire. The subsidies had made Obamacare plans more affordable for everyone purchasing one, but especially so for people earning more than 400% of the poverty level, about $132,000 for a family of four. On Jan. 1, subsidies reverted to the 2010 levels in the original Obamacare law, which provide no help to people earning that much.

Why It Might Happen: The expiration of the subsidies meant a massive spike in premiums for many small businesspeople and their employees who don’t get insurance through work, but earn decent livings. Overall Obamacare enrollment has dropped by about 20% to 19 million as a result of increased premiums. Democrats capitalized on those losses in their campaigns. Trump could take the issue off the table by restoring the funds.

Why It Might Not Happen: Republicans who were especially worried about the electoral impact of the subsidies’ expiration mostly lost their seats.

— Shawn Zeller

Air Safety

Possible Deal: Mandate technology on aircraft to avert midair collisions

Background: The deadly January 2025 collision over Washington between an Army helicopter and a passenger jet has increased pressure to do more to avert midair disasters. The nation’s top aviation accident investigator, the National Transportation Safety Board, has thrown its weight behind requiring Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast In, or ADS-B In, on specific aircraft, and a Senate bill requiring the technology passed by unanimous consent in 2025, with support from victims’ families. But that legislation stalled this year, with a key House Republican, Transportation Committee chair Sam Graves (R-Mo.) arguing it would be burdensome on small-scale, non-commercial planes. Instead, he and House Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) unveiled their own bipartisan bill that was less strict on the equipment.

Why It Might Happen: Negotiators have made significant progress on reconciling the competing Senate and House approaches. Graves recently said that “we’re down to the final just few things.”

Why It Might Not Happen: The Pentagon has played a role in this fight — initially it supported the Senate bill but then did an about-face just before the House voted on the upper chamber’s legislation earlier this year, helping sink its chances. The Defense Department, which operates aircraft in and around busy U.S. airports, cited budget and operational security worries. What the Trump administration’s position will be on any compromise remains uncertain.

— Jonathan Miller and Sam Ogozalek

Housing Costs

Possible Deal: Restrict large investors from buying up housing

Background: Congress passed a housing affordability billthis summer that took initial steps to curb the purchase of single-family housing by institutional investors like private equity firms that convert them to rentals. Those purchases have been blamed for driving up both rent and homebuying prices — and the high cost of housing was a major issue in the midterm elections. A new deal could extend similar limitations to multi-family properties and manufactured home communities.

Why It Might Happen: Trump supported the previous bill’s restrictions on private equity — an idea largely driven by Vice President JD Vance, a possible 2028 contender who supported a similar measure as a senator. Democrats could find strange bedfellows with Republicans representing rural areas, where large investors have been buying up manufactured housing communities.

Why It Might Not Happen: The sizable swell of Democrats joining Congress includes more moderate lawmakers who could join with business-friendly Republicans wary of further investment restrictions. Democrats also face an uphill battle getting Trump to sign anything passed in the next Congress.

— Katherine Hapgood and Cassandra Dumay

Prediction markets

Possible deal: End insider trading on prediction markets

Background: Insider trading in stocks is nothing new to Wall Street or Washington. But the rise of the prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket — where users can wager on U.S. elections, sports and pop culture events — has sparked a mind-boggling mess of questions around what insider trading on real-world events looks like. So far, the prediction markets, some of whom have enjoyed close ties to the White House, have avoided intense regulatory pressure. And while Republican lawmakers have questioned the legitimacy of the markets, few were willing to do anything about it given the industry’s connections.

Why it might happen: The problem has become increasingly obvious, with even aWhite House teleprompter operator disciplined for trading on the content of Trump’s speeches. Democrats aren’t likely to shy away — and already have prediction markets high on their oversight agendas. Helping their case: Many in the industry are broadly supportive of new anti-insider trading laws.

Why it might not happen: Some lawmakers don’t want to stop with insider trading. They also want to kill the industry’s lucrative but controversial sports markets. Yet doing so could invoke the industry’s wrath — to say nothing of Trump’s.

— Declan Harty

Education

Possible Deal: Shore up the popular Pell Grant program

Background: The Pell Grant program helps more than 6 million low- and middle-income students pay for college, but it is headed for a serious shortfall: $11.5 billion deficit in fiscal 2027, according to congressional budget estimates, thoughlawmakers have said it could be as much as $15 billion. The budget hole comes asmore students became eligible for the program after both Democratic and Republican lawmakers acted to make it easier to apply for federal aid. Congressional Republicans, Democrats and the Trump administration all want to address the Pell shortfall, but they have had very different plans for how to do so.

Why It Might Happen: Democrats eager to use their new majorities to help make college — and life — more affordable could find willing partners in Trump, whose budget request for fiscal 2026called for a $10.5 billion boost for the program, and GOP lawmakers who have pitched giving the maximum Pell Grant award a $50 bump.

Why It Might Not Happen: To offset costs, House Republicans have proposed eliminating subsidized federal student loans — saving $16 billion to be redirected to the Pell Grant. But that idea is a nonstarter with House Democrats because those loans aid lower- to middle-income undergraduate students by limiting interest accrual while the students are in school and providing a grace period after they graduate.

— Mackenzie Wilkes

Immigration

Possible Deal: Some combination of border security, unclogging the asylum system and potentially creating a pathway to citizenship for some people currently in the country illegally

Background: The outlines of a bipartisan deal to reform the immigration system and crack down on illegal entrants have been floated for decades, but time and again, legislation has stalled in Congress. Today the issue is as politically divisive as ever, but after two years of political fallout for both parties, there may finally be an opening for compromise. Any potential deal would need something tangible for the Trump administration, whether that’s increased border security or changes to the backlogged asylum system hawks argue has long been abused. Trump, for his part, has signaled openness to a legal pathway for unauthorized immigrants working in critical industries, while his Homeland Security secretary has floated DACA as a potential point of negotiation — two ideas Democrats would be eager to embrace.

Why it might happen: Republicans face a moment of reckoning on an issue they once dominated politically, with Trump acknowledging that his deportation policy was “too tough.” Many in the GOP see it as one of the biggest casualties of their sweeping midterm defeat — particularly among Latino voters who turned away from the party. Some Democrats appear eager to capitalize on the opening.

Why it might not happen: There will be a major campaign from the hardliners, both in and outside of the administration, to kill any legislative effort. Their push could be buoyed by Trump’s move to elevate Stephen Miller, the architect of his hardline immigration policy, as his elevation as chief of staff. But you also can’t count on Democrats. Will enough Democrats really want to cut a deal with a president they’ve said has gone too far on immigration enforcement? And while Trump might be feeling an air of bipartisanship, could that change as Democrats start to investigate him and his administration officials?

— Myah Ward