Why Iran Is Teetering And What Trump Might Do

President Donald Trump has signaled in recent days that the U.S. is poised to take action against the Iranian government for its violent crackdown on widespread protests in the country, which has left more than 500 people dead and thousands jailed.

In response, Iranian officials have privately suggested that the two countries work things out through diplomacy, though publicly, Tehran has warned it’s “prepared for war,” according to the country’s foreign minister.

Relations between the Trump administration and Iran have been icy since the disintegration of nuclear negotiations and the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities in June. But the current unrest in the country has the potential to tip that dynamic into a more active conflict.

Here are five things to know about the situation in Iran as Trump weighs a potential response:

What’s going on in Iran?

Iranian citizens took to the streets on Dec. 28 to protest the collapse of the Iranian rial amid soaring inflation and a sky-high cost of living, aggravated by steep U.S. sanctions.

But what started out as protests against dire economic conditions quickly spiraled into nationwide demonstrations, with protesters decrying festering corruption and political repression in the country — and calling for the downfall of the Islamic Republic itself.

By Jan. 11, protests had taken place in 585 locations spanning all 31 provinces of the country — including major cities like Shiraz and Tehran — according to the U.S.-based advocacy group Human Rights Activists News Agency. Those uprisings have been met with severe repression from government forces, with at least 544 confirmed deaths and more than 10,680 people arrested and imprisoned, HRANA reported Sunday.

The full numbers of casualties aren’t clear. The Iranian government enforced a sweeping nationwide internet blackout starting Jan. 8, significantly curtailing communications and coordination both within the country and outside it. Information leaking out of the country likely only paints a partial picture of what’s actually happening on the ground.

Meanwhile, Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s toppled monarch, has sought to position himself as the leading contender to shepherd the country through a democratic transition. But it’s unclear how much support Pahlavi, who resides in the U.S., has back home.

What makes these protests different?

Protest movements have repeatedly arisen within Iran over the years, and each time government forces have brutally shut them down.

This time, the uprisings come as the Iranian government is at one of its weakest moments since its inception. Compounding its battered economy, the country is in the midst of a massive water crisis: President Masoud Pezeshkian warned in November that parts of the capital city of Tehran might have to evacuate unless it rained.

The government’s troubles aren’t just mounting at home. Iran’s identity as a regional power has also been undercut in the past year: Its proxy forces Hamas and Hezbollah have taken a severe beating, its regional ally Syria has fallen, its nuclear program has been set back by U.S. strikes and its air defenses were significantly weakened during last year’s 12-day war with Israel. And Iran remains on edge as it awaits what it sees as an inevitable follow-up attack from Israel to finish the job on its nuclear facilities.

But there have yet to emerge any clear fissures or signs of dissent from within the government’s ranks despite those growing pressures, signaling that the regime’s apparatus is still intact — at least for now.

What has Trump said?

Trump has repeatedly threatened to take action against Iran in response to its crackdown on civilians. So far, he’s framed any potential U.S. response as coming to the “rescue” of Iranian protesters.

“If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Jan. 2.

After his operation to remove Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro earlier this month, Trump appeared emboldened to take actions in other countries that he feels aren’t capitulating to his demands. He has repeatedly warned Iran that attacks against protesters would bring repercussions from the U.S. The Trump administration has also touted its previous strike on Iran as an example of the type of military action it wants to do — quick but demonstrative of U.S. might, without lingering complications.

Indeed, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Monday that “the president has shown he's unafraid to use military options if and when he deems necessary. And nobody knows that better than Iran.”

But Leavitt also said that “diplomacy is always the first option for the president.”

Trump told reporters over the weekend that Iranian officials had reached out seeking to negotiate. But he cautioned that “we may have to act” before a meeting takes place, saying that the Iranian government was “starting to” cross a red line with its violence against protesters.

Meanwhile, on Monday evening Trump used his favorite foreign policy tool: tariffs.

“Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America,” he declared on Truth Social.

What has the Iranian government said?

In response to Trump’s threats, Iran has indicated that it wants diplomacy. But Iranian officials are still making clear they have no intention to back down from a fight.

“We are not looking for war, but we are prepared for war — even more prepared than the previous war, " Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Monday. “We are also ready for negotiations, but negotiations that are fair, with equal rights and mutual respect.”

Meanwhile, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly blamed the U.S. for stoking dissent, characterizing protesters as rioters intent on securing Trump’s favor.

Khamenei claimed in a social media post that purportedly “great rallies” in support of the government on Monday demonstrated that “the great Iranian nation has asserted its resolve and identity in the face of the enemies,” adding that “this was a warning to US politicians that they should halt their deceitful actions and stop relying on their traitorous hirelings.”

But in her comments on Monday, Leavitt said that despite Iran’s public defiance, Tehran’s officials were striking a different tone in conversations with the U.S. administration.

“What you're hearing publicly from the Iranian regime is quite different from the messages the administration is receiving privately,” she said.

What comes next?

Trump is set to be briefed on a range of possible responses on Tuesday. The options on the table include “kinetic and many non-kinetic” choices, POLITICO reported on Sunday.

Those potential paths run the gamut from targeted strikes inside Iran to cyberattacks, to possibly sending terminals for Elon Musk’s satellite-based internet service to restore connectivity to the Iranian people.

What’s not likely: American boots on the ground in Iran. A U.S. official told POLITICO on Sunday that no significant troop or asset movements are in the works at the moment.

Regardless of what option Trump chooses, the timeline for action is limited and the pressure will be high on Trump to be seen to follow through on his vows to act — especially after what the administration has claimed as a success with its Venezuela operation earlier this month.