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2026 Nba Mvp Odds, Favorites & Prediction: Luka Surges Up The Board, But Sga Still Massive Favorite

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the clear choice on the NBA MVP odds board, sitting at -850 to win the award, but the biggest story is the hint of competition he's getting from Luka Doncic.

The Lakers' star has gone on a scoring barrage as of late and has leaped up into the MVP conversation, but the current odds to win NBA MVP still expect SGA to take home his second trophy in the past three seasons.

????Latest 2026 NBA MVP odds

Team		My Take
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	-850	SGA ranks 2nd in scoring at 31.5 PPG.
Luka Doncic	+1000	Leads NBA in scoring and 3rd in APG.
Victor Wembanyama	+1200	Top 5 in blocks and rebounds.
Nikola Jokic	+4000	Jokic has record 28 triple-doubles.
Jaylen Brown	+17500	Career-high 28.5 PPG for 2nd-place Cs.
Donovan Mitchell	+50000	28.3 PPG with improved shooting splits.
Anthony Edwards	+100000	All-Star Game MVP is 3rd in PPG.

Odds from bet365, one of our best betting sites. Sign up with our bet365 promo code, or get one of our other sportsbook promos.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander actually saw his odds "shorten," dropping only to -850 — still an implied probability of 89.5%.

The biggest move has come from Lakers' star Luka Doncic, who leaped from +6500 to +1000, who has 10 straight games with 30+ points... including two 40+-point efforts, one 51-point game, and a 60-point outing.

Victor Wembanyama remains in third at +1200, while Nikola Jokic dropped to a distant fourth at 40/1.

NBA MVP prediction

Bet	Odds	Bet Date	Units
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+175	Oct. 28	1.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+150	Dec. 1	1.0
Nikola Jokic	+300	Feb. 25	0.5

With voters increasingly sensitive to both team success and two-way impact, SGA has the cleanest path to an MVP narrative this season. He's the best player on a top-two team in the West, elite efficiency from all three levels, and offers real defensive bite at the point of attack. His game scales without drama as he can dominate in isolation or flow within movement-heavy actions, and he gets to the line a ton without forcing bad shots. If Oklahoma City’s depth keeps their net ratings gaudy when he sits, while his on/off still pops, he’ll own the “drives winning” storyline that tends to decide close MVP races.

Doncic has put up video-game numbers again, yet the bar for heliocentric guards keeps rising, and defensive skepticism plus any midseason usage management could ding his case.

By contrast, SGA’s steadiness, durability, and two-way credibility give him multiple avenues to “win” the discourse even if raw counting stats are a tick lower, especially if the Thunder post the league’s best record.

My late February wager on Nikola Jokic is a value play as he's simply too good to ignore at plus odds. The issue with Joker is that he must play at least 65 games to qualify for the award, so any additional missed time could kill his candidacy.

???? NBA odds over time

This year's MVP chase has been a heavyweight melee. Follow along all season as we update this graphic with contenders rising and falling.

????2026 NBA MVP opening odds

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +150
Nikola Jokic +350
Luka Doncic +380
Giannis Antetokounmpo +1200
Victor Wembanyama +1200
Anthony Edwards +2500
Kevin Durant +5000
Cade Cunningham +6000
Jalen Brunson +8000
Donovan Mitchell +10000
Paolo Banchero +10000
Trae Young +15000

NBA MVP betting data

The following data is courtesy of BetMGM.

Highest ticket percentage: Cade Cunningham 24.6%
Highest handle percentage: Cade Cunningham 19.2%
Biggest liability: Cade Cunningham
Odds leader: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -1000

Cade Cunningham emerged as a popular choice among bettors early in 2026 when Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic were both injured and appeared in danger of qualifying for the 65 games required to win the MVP award.

Unfortunately Cunningham will now miss an extended period of time as well after being diagnosed with a collapsed lung. The case is considered mild, but will keep him out of the line-up for at least eight games, and possibly longer.

Popular NBA awards odds

How is the NBA MVP decided?

The MVP award is one of the most prestigious honors in professional basketball—and one of the most debated. But how is the MVP actually chosen?

????️ MVP Voting Process

The MVP is determined by a panel of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters from the U.S. and Canada, as well as a fan vote that counts as one ballot. Each voter selects five players, ranked from first to fifth place. The point system is as follows:

1st place vote: 10 points
2nd place: 7 points
3rd place: 5 points
4th place: 3 points
5th place: 1 point

The player with the highest total point tally at the end of voting is crowned NBA MVP.

???? What Do Voters Consider?

While there's no official checklist, MVP voters typically weigh several key factors:

Individual statistics: Points, assists, rebounds, efficiency, advanced metrics like PER or Win Shares
Team success: MVPs are rarely chosen from losing teams and Top 3 seeds are the norm
Narrative and storyline: Voters often reward players overcoming adversity or carrying a franchise
Consistency and availability: Games played, durability, and clutch performance matter

???? Voter Biases and Trends

Some unofficial trends also influence MVP outcomes:

“Voter fatigue”: Players who've already won may need to outperform their own past seasons to win again
New blood bias: Voters sometimes prefer rising stars over repeat winners
Position favoritism: Guards and forwards tend to dominate MVP voting, although that trend has been changing in recent years

???? NBA MVP trends

Here are some trends you may want to consider before placing a bet on the NBA MVP:

Repeat winners are somewhat common. Jokic's 2022 win marked the 12th different player to have won the award two (or more) years in a row.
The MVP usually comes from an elite team. Since 1985, only seven MVP winners have come from a team that didn't finish first or second in its conference.
The award is usually given to a player with a few years of experience. A rookie hasn't won MVP since Wes Unseld in 1969, and only two MVPs have been 22 or younger (Wes Unseld and Derrick Rose).
Centers have historically dominated the MVP award. While they went on a two-decade drought between Shaquille O'Neal (2000) and Nikola Jokic (2021), centers have now won four of the last five MVPs.

????NBA MVP betting history

A quick look at recent NBA MVPs and their opening odds.

Season	Player	Opening Odds	Team
2024-25	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+400	Thunder
2023-24	Nikola Jokic	+450	Nuggets
2022-23	Joel Embiid	+600	76ers
2021-22	Nikola Jokic	+1600	Nuggets
2020-21	Nikola Jokic	+2500	Nuggets
2019-20	Giannis Antetokounmpo	+210	Bucks
2018-19	Giannis Antetokounmpo	+475	Bucks
2017-18	James Harden	+1100	Rockets
2016-17	Russell Westbrook	+200	OThunder
2015-16	Stephen Curry	+650	Warriors
2014-15	Stephen Curry	+1600	Warriors