Around The Nba: Timeline Of The Giannis Saga And Why The Draft Could Determine Everything

Whoever thinks that grown men are above high-school level drama don’t follow the NBA.

This season, we’ve already seen a superstar get punched (reportedly) for making fun of an opponent’s contract blunder, and a very mid player demand(!!!) a trade out of what he believes to be a “hostage” situation. Somehow, neither of those stories takes the cake, since an all-time great is now dragging out an inevitable divorce because he doesn’t have the cojones to look like the bad guy.

What makes it sillier is that Giannis had a teammate in Dame who went through this exact saga, which resulted in them teaming up. You’d think he might’ve learned a thing or two from that, but instead, he’s copying Dame’s playbook to the tee.

With the trade deadline fast approaching and the Bucks hitting rock bottom, there’s no better time to look at what they could do with their seemingly disgruntled superstar.

First, we need to map out everything that’s led up to this point.

Timeline

Rumours about a potential Giannis departure have gone on for much longer than 6 months, but let’s focus on this season for the sake of sanity.

• Sept 29th: On media day, Bucks owner Wes Eden claimed that he and Giannis had a productive meeting over the summer that ended with the star affirming his loyalty to the franchise. An hour later, Giannis said that he does not remember such a meeting. Wait, what?
• October 7th: Shams reported that the Bucks gave the Knicks an exclusive window to discuss a potential Giannis trade in August, after the Greek Freak revealed New York to be the only team he’d be open to playing for, outside of Milwaukee.
• Oct 22nd – Dec 1: Milwaukee starts the season 9-13 — 8-8 with Giannis in the lineup, and 1-5 without him.
• Dec 1: Giannis strains his right calf, which is the same injury that kept him out of the 2024 playoffs.
• Dec 3: Just days after his calf strain, Shams reported that Giannis is meeting with the Bucks again to discuss his future, before Doc Rivers stated that there have been no conversations regarding Giannis’ future and that the star loves Milwaukee. Whatever you say, Glen.
• Dec 18: Two weeks after, Giannis said that he can’t control what his agent discusses with the Bucks, then bizarrely stated that he’s enjoyed being “the hottest chick in the game,” given the circulating rumours. Umm, you do realize that your agent works for you, right Giannis?
• Dec 27: Giannis returns from his injury, with the Bucks going 3-6 in his absence.
• Dec 28: Giannis calls out a “disrespectful” question after a reporter asked if he wants to stay in Milwaukee, saying: “I’m here, I’m here.”
• Jan 8: The Athletic publishes an exclusive one-on-one interview between Giannis and Sam Amick (paywall), where the Greek Freak says that he is invested in the Bucks and isn’t going anywhere. However, he followed up and said that those feelings only applied to that day, something that he apparently says a lot to his wife(???). Maybe you don’t realize this, Giannis, but you have a lot more power in the Bucks organization than you do in your marriage.
• Jan 13: With the Bucks getting blown out at home against a Minnesota team without Ant or Gobert, the fans began booing their team, and Giannis booed right back at them. Postgame, he explained that he’ll boo any crowd if they give him the same treatment, even if it’s his own fans. He then said that “when people don’t believe in me, I don’t tend to be with them. I tend to be against them.” Damn.
• Jan 22: Giannis calls out his teammates after a loss, saying that “guys are being selfish,” following a four-game span where he had 13 field goal attempts or fewer in every match.
• Jan 23: Giannis re-injures his right calf for the third time in less than two years and provided a self-diagnosed timeline of 4-6 weeks. The Bucks sit 11th in the East with a 18-26 record and remain 3 games out of the final play-in spot.

Got all that? Good, because we’re just getting started.

What can Milwaukee do at the deadline?

Despite the Bucks’ struggles, Eric Nehm has consistently reported (paywall) that Milwaukee only has intentions of buying at the deadline. That sounds ludicrous from the outside, but if you’re part of a front office in a small market that never attracts any free agents, it’s understandable to try and keep Giannis at all costs — especially considering that Milwaukee is +5.4 per 100 possessions with him on the court, which would be the 6th best mark league-wide.

The counterargument? Well, they’re -11.2 when he sits, tying the Wizards for the worst mark in the league, and the Bucks have played more minutes without Giannis this season due to his recurring calf injuries. From an unbiased perspective, it makes absolutely no sense to buy. First, due to their lack of assets and financial constraints, the only players they could acquire are heavily distressed assets like a Zach LaVine or Ja Morant – players who frankly aren’t very good. Secondly, even if they do make such moves, it’s been years since Giannis has strung together two months of health, so why would anyone expect him to last through an entire playoff run?

How does the draft factor into this?

The biggest X-factor in all this is the upcoming draft. Milwaukee still owns the “bad” end of their own 2026 pick swap between themselves and the Pelicans, with Atlanta owning the better half of that swap. In other words, the Bucks would have the lower draft position between the two picks, and given that New Orleans is already at the bottom of the league, Milwaukee could guarantee that both picks would have high lottery odds if they pull the plug on this season.

If it hasn’t dawned on you yet, there is a possibility that the Hawks (via the Pelicans) and Bucks get the 1st and 2nd picks of the upcoming draft, thus giving Milwaukee the #2 overall selection.

Yes, really.

So what point is there in having Giannis return this season? Milwaukee is already 3 games out of the play-in, sitting 22nd in the overall league standings and just a half game ahead of the red-hot Hornets. There is a 4-game gap between them and the 25th-ranked Jazz, and another 4-game difference between the Jazz and the last-place Wizards. It might seem like a big hill to climb, but I don’t doubt Milwaukee’s ability to join that group when their .214 winning percentage without Giannis is worse than Washington’s — and that’s with them trying to win!

It makes way more sense for them to tank and get the highest pick possible. The chance to get one of Dybantsa/Boozer/Peterson is too hard to pass up, even if the odds of that happening are minuscule. Imagine if Milwaukee does end up with one of those prospects while also managing to trade for a reclamation project like Ja — a package involving Rollins and/or a lightly protected 2031/32 pick would be more than enough for any distressed asset, and I’d be lying if I said that a lineup including Ja/Giannis/Turner/lottery pick doesn’t intrigue me.

Again, I am not advising them to do that, but this franchise has made countless desperation moves as a last-ditch attempt to appease their star, and they’ve acquired criminals once-relevant players before. Even adding a mid-lottery talent could give the Bucks either an intriguing player to build around or use as a trade chip to acquire another star, which is the likeliest outcome.

Atlanta’s pick could play a big role in this as well. Would they be willing to include it in a potential package for Giannis, even if it ends up in the top-3? And if Milwaukee gets a high pick too, would they be more willing to deal the Greek Freak now that they have two potential cornerstone prospects to build around? Again, the chances of that happening are close to nil, but I’ve learned to never rule out anything after watching Dallas trade Luka and draft Cooper within the span of 5 months.

Final thoughts

A Giannis trade still seems inevitable. Even in the off chance that Milwaukee acquires a good starter along with a high pick, we’ve seen countless times that the two timelines “plan” just doesn’t work (see: Mavericks, Dallas, and Warriors, Golden State). Don’t expect him to be moved before the deadline, though, due to his injury and lack of a trade demand, but a divorce seems certain in the offseason. Still, another wrinkle in this convoluted saga is that Giannis can’t officially be offered an extension until October, and if both sides continue this situationship, it could drag out until the last minute.

So, get ready for many more months of this, peeps. The noise will only intensify from here.

This week, please check out Marilyn’s article on the Spurs’ recent complacency! San Antonio’s been in a lull ever since they beat OKC 3 times in 10 days, which is especially disappointing for a young team that hasn’t accomplished anything yet.

Thanks for reading!

All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.