Besson’s Way-too-early Saints’ 2026 Record Prediction

It’s really hard to predict the New Orleans Saints’ record in 2026. They finished the season winning four of their last five, and didn’t look like a 6-11 team.

An argument could be made that the Saints only beat bad teams, and while there’s some weight there, they’ll be playing a last-place schedule in 2026, meaning they’ll be facing some pretty bad teams again.

Tyler Shough will be entering his first full offseason as the Saints’ starting quarterback. Along with Kellen Moore getting closer to building the team he envisioned when taking the head coaching job, New Orleans should be set up to be better next season, and they’re spending like it. The Saints made plenty of significant free agency moves. Highlighted by the Travis Etienne and David Edwards signings, New Orleans was a top-5 spender in the offseason.

On the flip side, a majority of the Saints’ wins in 2025 came from the dominance of their defense, which they lost plenty of talent on due to free agency. Demario Davis left for the New York Jets, Alontae Taylor earned a big contract with the Tennessee Titans, and Cameron Jordan is projected to sign with a new team, with rumors trending towards the Kansas City Chiefs.

While they did reunite with linebacker Kaden Elliss, the Saints have been quiet in terms of adding to their defense. They’ve worked to retain talent, resigning Chris Rumph II and John Ridgeway III, but there haven’t been other big free agency moves.

However, New Orleans will probably focus on their defense in the draft. With the eighth overall pick, the Saints will have their pick of the top defensive prospects. David Bailey, Reuben Bain, Sonny Styles, and Mansoor Delane all make sense to be the Saints’ pick at No. 8, and they’ll be happy to pick the one that falls to them.

While it is important how well the Saints’ defense can rebuild for 2026, the biggest concern is Shough and his ability to keep the momentum. Sophomore slumps happen as teams know how to better prepare for rookies without much tape on them.

Shough has started nine games for New Orleans in 2025 and will be the starter in 2026. While the past snaps and reps are important for his development, they allow opposing teams to understand better what works and what doesn’t against the second-year quarterback.

For example, Chris Olave was Shough’s No. 1 target through his nine starts. How will the second-round quarterback respond when teams begin to double Olave? Will he force the ball into double coverage, or find other outlets?

It’s hard to predict the Saints’ record in 2026. They have one of the easiest records, and a strong second half of the season indicates they are better than the 6-11 record they ended with in 2025. While they were active in adding to their offense in free agency, there are concerns about their ability to fill holes on defense left by legendary defenders. 2026 is a big season, both for Shough and Moore, and I think they’ll answer the call and win the weak NFC South.

Final Prediction: 10-7