Bills Trade Deadline Candidate: Colts Receiver Josh Downs

Let’s jump back to wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills ahead of this year’s NFL trade deadline, which is now less than a week away.

Highlighted today is Colts wideout Josh Downs, a fourth-year, nifty slot receiver veteran with 228 career catches and 12 touchdown grabs across three-plus seasons who resides on an Indianapolis team that sits at 2-6, has already traded Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner, and many believe remains in fire sale mode.

This article is the ninth in the trade-candidate series I’ll continue to sprinkle onto the site until the actual trade deadline until November 10.

Past installments in this series:

Derwin James, Brian Thomas Jr.Jessie Bates, Tariq Woolen, Amani Hooker, Antoine Winfield Jr., Cam Bynum, Zack Baun

Age: 25

Selected in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft after an illustrious career at the University of North Carolina catching passes from Drake Maye, Downs been one of the steadiest slot wideouts in football with high-caliber separation talent.

As a rookie, he caught 68 passes for 771 yards with two scores, and 30 of those 68 snags went for first downs despite a seriously low aDOT of 7.4.

Downs saw nine more targets in 2023 — up from 98 to 107 — and provided an uptick in production with 72 grabs for 803 yards with five receiving scores. Last year, Downs was only targeted 84 times and caught 58 passes for 566 yards and four touchdowns.

Entering Week 9, he averages 4.1 yards and just under 45 receptions per game.

2026 snap splits

Slot: 69.6%
Wide: 30.0%

Despite his 5’9”, 171-pound frame suggesting he’d need to live in the slot to succeed in the NFL, Downs has proven capable of making plays on the outside, and much of that is thanks to his incredibly shiftiness to beat press coverage from longer corners on the outside. His highest regular-season slot rate was 84.5% in 2024.

While Downs’ aDOT has hovered without much variance, between 6.7 yards to 8.4 yards in his first three seasons, he carries a noticeably higher aDOT of 10.3 into Week 9. That’s still pretty low overall, but it’s in the neighborhood of CeeDee Lamb’s (10.6) and the aDOT of Ja’Marr Chase (10.7) and Justin Jefferson (also 10.7) currently.

Also, entering this season, Downs averaged three drops per season and currently has a very solid career contested-catch win rate of 44.9%. Darn good figures for a small receiver.

How he’d fit with Bills

Downs would be a fascinating fit in Buffalo, because he’s not the exact type of vertical threat the team seemingly needs. However, he’s a ridiculous separator… and there’s no doubt the Bills could use more weapons who can uncover quickly.

Downs is third in the NFL among all receivers who’ve run at least 100 routes in Fantasy Points Data’s Average Separation Score. It’s a metric that stems from play-by-play charting of whether or not a wideout got open on a route.

He’s been in the Top 30 of Average Separation Score in each of the past two seasons and has ascended to elite-level status in 2026.

But make no mistake about it, this is a possession, mostly underneath receiver who’d amplify the Bills’ ability to feature a control-the-clock, quick-strike passing offense when needed.

Financial obligation for Bills to trade for him

2026 salary: $3.924M

If the Bills trade for Downs after Week 9, they’d be on the hook for $1.96M in prorated 2026 base salary. Buffalo — with its roughly $4M in 2026 space currently —could slide him right onto their books without any accounting gymnastics.

Given this is Year 4 for Downs in the NFL, and he wasn’t a first round pick, his rookie deal is set to expire after the season.

Projected cost to acquire

Using Syndicate32.com’s trade machine, adding the “fire sale” component to the assessment, the projected cost to trade for Downs is a mid third-round pick in 2027.

While that may seem a touch high for Downs, he has established himself as someone very good in his niche role, and he’s very cheap this season.

Should the Bills trade for Josh Downs?

I don’t know if I’d send a third-round pick to Indianapolis for Downs on the first ask. A fourth-rounder, and we’re cooking.

What I’d love about this addition is simple — he gets open. Regularly. That’s most vital in today’s NFL at the receiver position.

Downs is a valuable asset to have in blitzing situations because of how quickly he gets open too.

While he’s averaging a higher aDOT than ever, Downs would not solve Buffalo’s slight issue with pushing the football downfield.

And would their be a little redundancy with Downs and Khalil Shakir? Sure. But we shouldn’t assume skill-set redundancy in the receiver room is a negative. Heck, the Bills have had plenty of larger, rebounder types with separation issues over the past few seasons… why not add another nimble, slot-based wideout who gets open on a regular basis?

Don’t forget, when Allen ascended to superstardom, the Bills had Stefon Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley… who brought slightly different specialities to the field but all had skill sets that allowed them to consistently separate.

The kicker on Downs — this trade would keep him away from reuniting with his college quarterback in New England.

But don’t get me wrong, the main reason I’d love Downs in Buffalo — he’s cheap now, entering his prime… and the dude routinely gets open.