Breaking Down Caleb Williams’ 2025 Season, Part I: Game Grades

Series Roadmap

Part 0:Inside the Evaluation
You are here ➡️ Part I: Game Grades
Part II: True Passer Rating, Coming March 25th
Part III: On-Target Percentage, Coming March 28th
Part IV: 2024 → 2025 Growth, Coming April 1st
Part V: 2025 In Conclusion, Coming April 4th

How to Read This Breakdown

Caleb Williams’ 2025 season wasn’t a straight line, it was a series of peaks, valleys, and adjustments that only really come into focus when you zoom in week to week.

Traditional stats can tell you what happened over the course of the season, but they rarely capture when it happened, or how a quarterback’s performance evolved as the year unfolded.

The grading scale for both half and game score is on the right. I grade quarterbacks using a scale that captures both short-term impact and overall game performance. Each half is generally scored from −4 to +4 (but can go lower/higher), with “Average” sitting between −1.00 and +1.00, meaning the QB neither helped nor hurt their team in a meaningful way. This is considered league average quarterback play. From there, the scale expands outward. Slightly positive or negative performances fall into “Above Average” or “Below Average,” while more impactful games land in “Good” or “Bad.” The extremes, “Elite” and “Awful,” are reserved for rare outlier performances.

At the end, I combine both halves to get a full-game score ranging from −8 to +8, keeping the same structure but scaled up. This approach lets me capture momentum shifts and adjustments throughout the game while still giving a clear overall evaluation. The goal is to measure true impact, not just stats, rewarding efficient, winning play and penalizing mistakes that hurt the team.

To better understand that progression, I’ve broken Williams’ season into four distinct splits: Weeks 1-5, 6-9, 10-13, and 14-18. Each segment captures a different phase of his development, from early-season adjustment, to midseason rhythm, to late-season volatility and refinement.

Within each split, we’ll look at individual game grades, key moments, and the underlying traits that shaped his performance. The goal isn’t just to track results, but to identify patterns. Where he improved, where he struggled, and how consistently he was able to execute at a high level.

Each split will be assigned a letter grade based off the average grade earned for the split, this average was calculated by adding every graded game from all seven quarterbacks graded this season, and dividing by the total number of games played.

With that framework in place, we can start where every season does: at the beginning. The opening stretch of games provides the first real look at Williams following a full offseason and training camp under new head coach Ben Johnson, operating within an offensive scheme tailored to his strengths. It sets the baseline for everything that followed, highlighting both early returns and areas still taking shape.

1st Quarter Split (Weeks 1-5)

Average Grade: 0.83
Split Letter Grade: B
Best Game: Week 3, vs. Dallas (3.55, Above Average)
Worst Game: Week 1, vs. Minnesota (-2.20, Below Average)

The Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams era started with a bang, scoring an opening drive touchdown to begin the season. Something they did not accomplish at any point in 2024.

But that momentum didn’t last. An overall awful second half from the Bears against the Vikings, and specifically Caleb Williams, who recorded nine poorly graded throws in the half alone, flipped the game entirely. That total in the half alone would stand as his season high for poor throws in a single game, with his next highest coming in Week 8 against Baltimore. It all culminated in a brutal -4.05 second half.

He rebounded against the Lions with an average outing despite the blowout, then followed it up with his best game of the first split against an overmatched Cowboys defense. Williams earned a +3.55 in that game and recorded five combined great and elite throws, good for a 14.3% big play rate (great + elite plays divided by total plays). Over the full opening stretch, he posted a respectable 7.6% big play rate, which ranked fourth among graded quarterbacks and was above the season average of 6.4% for all graded quarterbacks.

Despite running for his life against Maxx Crosby, Williams still managed a +0.75 game grade against the las Vegas Raiders. That performance also included the first of what would become six fourth-quarter comebacks on the season. His second half was particularly strong, going 10/15 for 114 yards, one touchdown, and a 111.5 passer rating, helping the Bears escape Las Vegas with a win.

Despite some early-season struggles, Williams posted just a 1.4% turnover-worthy play rate, a mark will under all graded quarterback across the season. While this was the most up-and-down stretch of his 2025 season, the flashes were clearly there. He recorded six elite throws over the first four weeks and completed 50% of his deep passes, nearly doubling his 2024 mark of 26.7%.

2nd Quarter Split (Weeks 6-9)

Average Grade: 0.39
Split Letter Grade: C+
Best Game: Week 9, @ Cincinnati (5.15, Good)
Worst Game: Week 6, @ Washington (-3.60, Below Average)

This was hands down the most difficult stretch for Caleb Williams during the season, and by extension one of the most divisive points for the fanbase in 2025. If I had a dollar for every doom post after the Ravens loss, I would be a very rich man.

Coming off the Week 5 bye, the Bears traveled to Maryland looking to exorcise some demons from the 2024 season against the Washington Commanders. The Week 6 game featured a season-high six bad throws from Williams and was one of the few games all year where he failed to record an elite throw. But, similar to Week 4 in Las Vegas, when the game was on the line, Williams delivered in the second half. He went 7/12 for 167 yards, one touchdown, and a 130.6 passer rating, helping set up a walk-off field goal from temporary kicker Jake Moody and securing back-to-back come-from-behind wins.

The following week came against a quietly strong New Orleans pass defense, which finished the season ranked fourth in the league, allowing just 179.2 passing yards per game. While the Bears cruised to a two-score win behind one of their best defensive performances of the season, Williams posted a -1.65 game grade, in a game. But the focus on trying to limit Williams allowed the Bears to rush for 222 yards and two scores. While his grade was still within the “average” range, it marked one of only two instances all season where he recorded back-to-back negatively graded games.

The split culminated in what, at the time, felt like the most improbable comeback of the season. Williams put together a solid first half, and with the Bears seemingly in control against the Bengals, the game flipped quickly. Cincinnati scored two touchdowns in a span of 46 seconds, taking a 42-41 lead with just 54 seconds remaining.

Williams responded immediately, finding Colston Loveland on a perfectly placed seam ball that turned into a 58-yard touchdown, stunning the Bengals.

He posted his best half of the season with an elite +4.45, recording zero negatively graded plays in the half and just six across the entire game. His +4.45 second half ranked as the third-highest half grade recorded all season, trailing only two performances from Drake Maye. An overall performance that flipped the script on those who were beginning to doubt the second year quarterback after a stretch of three tough games previous.

His big play rate dropped to 6.1% during this split, but his poor play rate (poor + turnover-worthy plays divided by total plays) also improved slightly, falling from 12.2% to 11.7%. That shift points to a small but meaningful improvement in accuracy, something we will explore further in the on-target analysis, as well as a stronger emphasis on limiting negative plays.

With an impressive win over the Bengals and victories in three of four games during the split, things were beginning to trend upward for Caleb Williams and the Bears.

3rd Quarter Split (Weeks 10-13)

Average Grade: 2.01
Split Letter Grade: S
Best Game: Week 10, vs. New York (7.10, Great)
Worst Game: Week 12, vs. Pittsburgh (-2.65, Below Average)

Does anyone else remember this stretch as the point where the “fraudulent” Bears were supposed to be exposed?

Instead, they went 4-0. That run included two more come-from-behind victories over the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings, along with convincing wins over an AFC perennial playoff team and the defending Super Bowl champions.

Williams opened the stretch with a season-high +7.10 grade against the Giants, in a game that featured five drops, including two potential elite-level throws. He recorded 10 combined great and elite plays, six of which were elite, resulting in a stellar 20.8% big play rate compared to just a 6.3% poor play rate. He followed that performance with another solid outing against the Vikings, particularly in the second half, where he recorded just two negatively graded plays and helped the Bears once again pull off a comeback win.

His poor play rate dropped to 8.0% during this split, while his big play rate came in at 8.6%. This was the point where Williams began to rein in the mid-level inaccuracies that had plagued him earlier in the season.

This stretch also came in the middle of the completion percentage debate, where he completed just 51.8% of his passes. But that number lacks context. Over this span, Williams averaged a 9.7 depth of target, a figure that would have tied him with league leader Lamar Jackson. He also threw the ball away 12 times and dealt with nine drops from his receivers.

There was a slight hiccup against the Steelers, where he posted a season-high three turnover-worthy plays, including a costly sack-fumble that resulted in six points. Still, he produced statistically, recording his second three-touchdown passing game in a four-week span. He also added a strong second half with just two negatively graded plays, one bad and one below average.

For what it’s worth, Williams rebounded from that performance and closed the season with six straight games at an average grade or better.

He capped off the split with a road win against the Eagles. While the ground game was the story on Black Friday, it was Williams’ elite cross-body touchdown to Cole Kmet that sealed the game against the defending champions, giving the Bears their second four-game winning streak of the season.

His +2.01 average game grade during this third split set the stage for a strong finish, as he would post just one half over the final five weeks that fell below average.

The split saw his negative play rate (bad + poor + turnover-worthy plays divided by total plays) drop to just 14.86%, well below his season average of 19.72%. That figure would have led all graded quarterbacks in 2025 by a wide margin over a full season, with Drake Maye leading the group at 19.38%.

4th Quarter Split (Weeks 14-18)

Average Grade: 3.14
Split Letter Grade: S
Best Game: Week 15, vs. Cleveland (5.25, Good)
Worst Game: Week 18, vs. Detroit (-0.30, Average)

Ben Johnson famously said in November that the Bears would be playing their best football come December. While the team finished the season 2-3, all three losses were one-score games that came down to the final play. Two of those came against NFC playoff quality teams, with the other against the two-time defending division champion Lions.

For Caleb Williams, this was clearly his best stretch of football all season. He averaged a stellar 3.14 game grade, which included two solid outings against the Packers, a strong performance against a good Cleveland defense, and an equally impressive showing in a shootout in Santa Clara on Sunday Night Football.

His poor play and negative play rates dropped significantly during this stretch, coming in at just 4.9% and 14.29% respectively, both well below his season marks of 9.0% and 19.72%. Meanwhile, his big play rate and positive play rate (above average + good + great + elite plays divided by total plays) came in at 7.9% and 19.70%.

While his positive play rate was slightly below his season average of 23.66%, the context matters. Williams was taking more of what the defense gave him during this stretch. His neutral play rate, defined as plays that resulted in no negative or a small positive outcome based on success rate, jumped to 67.98%, a significant increase from his season average of 58.73%. This reflects a quarterback who was reducing variance and becoming more consistent on a game-to-game basis.

This stretch also featured some of Williams’ best throws of the season. The diving touchdown to Olamide Zaccheaus against the Packers, the back-of-the-end-zone throw to DJ Moore against the Browns, the fourth-down touchdown to Jah’dae Walker, and the walk-off deep ball to DJ Moore against the Packers all stand out. Add in the two deep strikes to Luther Burden and Colston Loveland against the 49ers, and it becomes clear just how high his ceiling was during this run.

Williams closed out the second half of the season averaging two elite throws per game, a significant jump from the 1.1 per game he averaged over the first eight games of the season.

Taken together, this stretch wasn’t just Williams’ most efficient run of the season, it was his most controlled. The volatility that defined earlier portions of the year gave way to a more consistent profile, where negative plays were limited.. The high-end flashes were still there, but they were now paired with a steadier baseline from week to week.

And when you zoom out, that evolution becomes the defining theme of his 2025 season.

The next step is placing that profile into context. How does that mix of efficiency, explosiveness, and consistency compare to the rest of the quarterbacks evaluated this season?

The Full Picture: Season Profile & Peer Context

As a quick preface, each quarterback graded this season will have a link in the following paragraphs to their full breakdown, which I published on my personal website a few weeks ago. If you are interested in a deeper dive on any of these players, I encourage you to check those out.

We have looked at Williams in the context of his own performance, but how does he stack up against the six other quarterbacks graded during the 2025 season? In total, I graded 100 games, 83 of which came from quarterbacks not named Caleb Williams, giving us a solid sample for comparison.

Across the 17-week regular season, Williams led all seven quarterbacks in game grade six times, the most of any quarterback in this group. That speaks to his ability to reach a high-end level of play. On the other hand, six of his starts resulted in negative game grades. While only three of those fell below the “average” threshold, his six total negative games ranked second-most among the group, behind Bo Nix with seven.

That rate, however, improved significantly as the season progressed. Three of his first six starts were negatively graded, but only three of his final 11 starts fell into that category. If you include the playoffs, that becomes three of his final 13 games, where he posted a +2.15 against the Packers and a +1.55 against the Rams. This points to a clear and meaningful trend toward more consistent quarterback play.

Over that 13-game stretch, Williams averaged a 2.60 game grade, a number that would place him firmly in the conversation with some of the league’s top quarterbacks over a full season.

Among the quarterbacks graded, Williams finished third in average game grade during the regular season at 1.68, well above the group average of 0.49.

Drake Maye led the group with a 2.45 average game grade, backing up the MVP hype with consistently strong tape. You can debate the strength of schedule, but the on-field traits and execution were evident throughout the season.

Jordan Love also put together an impressive year, finishing at 2.07. While he may not be the next Favre or Rodgers, he consistently delivered good quarterback play with flashes of elite performance. That aligns with what showed up on tape in 2024 as well, when he finished with a 1.40 average game grade, despite dealing with injuries, which would have earned an “A” grade.

Behind Williams is Jared Goff, whose season featured both high peaks and significant valleys, often tied to how well defenses were able to generate pressure. He finished with a -0.05 average game grade.

Jayden Daniels had an abbreviated season due to injuries and finished at -0.46, just ahead of Bo Nix at -0.54, who, despite some bulk stats, underperformed relative to expectations as a potential franchise quarterback.

At the bottom of the group was Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who finished last with a -1.70 average game grade, and may already be nearing the end of his runway as a starter in Minnesota following the additions of Kyler Murray and re-signing of Carson Wentz.

While this comparison represents a relatively small sample of graded games, the signs of growth for Williams in year two are clear. He finished within striking distance of Jordan Love in average grade and showed a strong upward trend as the season progressed.

One limitation of this approach is sample size. These 100 graded games represent roughly 18% of all NFL starts in 2025. To build a more complete league-wide picture, we can turn to True Passer Rating, where we have data across the entire league.

And that is exactly where we will go next.

How do you feel about these grades? Agree or disagree? Anything you would change about the process? Let me know in the comments.

Gary Baugher Jr. is a rookie contributor to WCG, bringing football insight backed by over 16 years of experience in organized football and more than 30 years as a passionate fan of the game. You can follow him on Twitter at @iamcogs.