Breaking Down Caleb Williams’ 2025 Season, Part Iv: 2024 → 2025 Growth

Series Roadmap

Part 0:Inside the Evaluation
Part I:Game Grades
Part II:True Passer Rating
Part III:On-Target Rate
You are here ➡️ Part IV: 2024 → 2025 Growth, Coming April 1st
Part V: 2026 Preview, Coming April 5th

From Baseline to Breakout, Caleb Williams’ level up in 2025

Thus far in this breakdown series we have covered Caleb Williams’ weekly game grades, true passer rating, and on-target rate for the 2025 season. But in order to provide a more accurate picture of his growth, we need to take his 2025 season and stack it directly against his rookie year.

There is no question, Williams was thrusted into a tumultuous situation in 2024. It was a season that started so promising with the Bears jumping out to a 4-2 record, only for things to completely unravel into a 1-10 finish. Along the way, the organization hit the reset button midseason, with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron being fired after a Week 9 loss to the New England Patriots, and head coach Matt Eberflus following just two weeks later. For a rookie quarterback, that’s about as unstable of an environment as you can be dropped into, trying to work within a system that’s constantly shifting underneath you.

Despite all of that, Williams still had plenty to hang his hat on:

• Set the franchise record for all-purpose yards for a quarterback (a mark he would later break the following season).
• Threw the second most touchdowns from a Bears quarterback since 2015 (Mitchell Trubisky, 24 in 2018), good for 12th all-time for a Bears quarterback.
• Most passing yards from a Bears quarterback since 2015, and the 5th most all-time for a Bears quarterback.
• Set the Bears rookie marks for completions, yards, touchdowns, and passer rating.
• Set the NFL rookie mark and franchise all-time mark for pass attempts without an interception.
• The lowest INT % for a Bears quarterback in franchise history (minimum 8 starts).
• Threw for 1,500 yards, 9 TD’s, 0 INT while completing 64.5% of his passes for a 98.5 passer rating against the NFC North, all teams who finished top ten in points allowed.

Even in what was, team-wise, a disastrous season, the individual production and flashes on field were more than enough to suggest a strong foundation was already in place.

But metric-wise, how much growth did we actually see from season to season?

This part of the breakdown aims to answer exactly that.

Before we dive into it, a few notes. When I first began grading last year I had a simpler system with a bit less nuance than where the system is now. (Mainly, in 2024 I did not have an “Above Average” grade for throws, so the “Average” grade was essentially a blend of both, causing some natural score inflation.) I’ve done my best to adjust grades accordingly, but it won’t be fully accurate until I get a chance to regrade 2024 during this offseason.

Within that same vein, I did not track on-target throwing in 2024, so those numbers will be compared to Pro Football Reference’s data for the season.

Both of these things will be revisited here on Windy City Gridiron during this offseason.

So with that said, let’s get into it!

Seasonal Growth: Grading + Grading Metrics

Right off the bat, when you stack these two seasons side by side, one thing jumps out immediately. Caleb Williams’ 2024 campaign was defined by volatility, swinging wildly between extremes on both ends of the grading scale. There were plenty of contributing factors here. An ineffective offensive scheme, constant coaching turnover, and the natural highs and lows that come with a rookie season all played their part in shaping what ultimately became a rollercoaster year.

That volatility shows up clearly in the numbers. In 2024, Williams logged 10 games with an outright negative grade, averaging a -2.73 in those performances. Fast forward to 2025, and that number drops to just six games, with a significantly improved average of -1.74 in those same negatively graded outings. Simply put, trimming down those low-end performances made a massive difference. His average game grade climbed from -0.32 in 2024 to 1.68 in 2025, marking a +2.00 swing year over year.

That jump wasn’t just about raising the floor either. Williams elevated his ceiling as well, posting seven games with a grade of +3.00 or higher in 2025, compared to just three in 2024. The result is a much more complete and consistent profile, and a clear step forward in overall quarterback play.

Split Comparison

Across all splits but the 2nd quarter split from 2024 Williams saw a sharp rise in grading performance including jumps of over 3 a game in the 3rd and 4th quarter splits of 2025.

1st Quarter Split: 2024: -1.10 | 2025: 0.83 | ⬆️1.93
2nd Quarter Split: 2024: 2.29 | 2025: 0.39 | ⬇️1.90
3rd Quarter Split: 2024: -1.43 | 2025: 2.01 | ⬆️3.44
4th Quarter Split: 2024: -0.59 | 2025: 3.14 | ⬆️3.73

Graded Metrics

Williams almost universally improved across the board in graded metrics from 2024 to 2025, seeing strong improvements in every area except time to throw, and time to sack.

Sack%: (Sacks deemed QB’s fault / total snaps) A huge jump here, going from one of the leagues worst with at fault sack % to one of the best.
TOW%: (Plays graded Turnover Worthy / total snaps) One of the things Caleb has done well over his first two seasons is take care of the ball, he only got better in 2025, dropping his TOW% below 2.00%.
PPR%: (Poor + Turnover plays / total snaps) A small improvement here, with the majority of this grade coming from poorly graded throws.
-PLAY%: (Plays graded Below Average or lower / total snaps) A huge decrease here in 2025, dropping his poor play rate by over six points.

NPR%: (Plays graded Average/Ungraded / total snaps) Essentially plays of little or no consequence, a small increase here while decreasing negative play rate (-PLAY%) and increasing positive play rate (+PLAY%) is generally seen as a positive.
+PLAY%: (Plays graded Above Average or higher / total snaps) a 6 point increase here, as Williams essentially dropped his negative plays and replaced them with positives in 2025.
BPR%: (Great + Elite plays / total snaps) Williams had a respectable 6.44% mark in 2024, as he often flashed the elite ability he was drafted for, he only increased that further in 2025, pushing it to 7.60%.
Time to Throw: While it did increase, this isn’t necessarily a negative, as Williams stepped his game up in sack avoidance and played out of play action at a much higher rate in 2025, both of which can extend time to throw.
Time to Pressure: Not necessarily on the quarterback at all times, but is deemed when a quarterback reacts to pressure, this simple could be Caleb being more aware of his pocket and attempted to escape pressure earlier.
Under Center: 126 snaps extra taken under center in 2025, as the Bears and Caleb Williams adopted a more play-action friendly offense, and benefitted greatly for it. Not necessarily a plus or minus, but a interesting caveat from season to season to watch.
Shotgun: Generally speaking, if you take more snaps under center you will take less in shotgun, not a plus or minus per say, but interesting to keep an eye on.
Good+: Games that earned a “Good” or higher grade in a season, with four such games in 2025, Caleb say a two game increase to his total from 2024.
Bad-: Games that earned a “Bad” or lower grade in a season, Caleb went from three such games in 2024 to zero, raising his grading floor considerably, as mentioned.

Seasonal Growth: True Passer Rating

Williams saw a massive leap in his average True Passer Rating (TPR) from 2024 to 2025, jumping more than 40 points from a fairly pedestrian 85.4 aTPR to an very healthy 125.8. That surge didn’t just show up on paper, it completely reshaped where he stood league-wide, climbing from 24th in aTPR in 2024 all the way up to 6th in 2025.

Two key factors drove that jump. First, the at-fault sacks. Williams cut those down dramatically, going from 41 in 2024 to just 14 in 2025. That alone removed a massive source of negative plays from his profile. Second was his aggressiveness downfield, and more importantly, the efficiency that came with it. His average depth of target increased from 8.1 to 8.9, but this wasn’t empty volume. It came with a legitimate improvement in deep passing production. According to PPF, his deep ball grade skyrocketed from 56.4 to 95.5, his adjusted completion percentage jumped from 28.0% to 49.3%, and his big time throw rate climbed from 19.5% to 31.6%. All three marks landed inside the top five in the NFL in 2025.

Those improvements went a long way toward eliminating the crippling lows that plagued his rookie season. In 2024, nine of his 17 starts fell below 100 TPR, including two games that dipped into the negatives. In 2025, that number shrank to just two games below 100. While he technically hit more extreme highs in 2024, with three games eclipsing 150 TPR, his 2025 season was far more stable from week to week. And in the end, that consistency is what elevated his overall level of play, turning flashes into sustained production.

Split Comparison

Williams saw dramatic improvement across every split from 2024 to 2025, with no segment improving by less than 22.1 aTPR. The most notable jump came in the fourth quarter split, where he posted a massive +57.5 aTPR increase. That kind of across-the-board growth points to a quarterback who didn’t just improve in one area, but elevated his performance in every phase of the game in regards to TPR.

It reinforces what shows up on tape and in the underlying metrics. Williams not only did a much better job limiting drive-killing mistakes, particularly with the sharp reduction in sacks, but he was also vastly more effective pushing the ball downfield. And more importantly, he paired that added aggression with efficiency, turning what were once volatile stretches into sustained, high-level production.

1st Quarter Split: 2024: 92.4 | 2025: 132.8 | ⬆️40.4
2nd Quarter Split: 2024: 105.2 | 2025: 127.3 | ⬆️22.1
3rd Quarter Split: 2024: 78.4 | 2025: 115.4 | ⬆️37.0
4th Quarter Split: 2024: 69.7 | 2025: 127.2 | ⬆️57.5

Seasonal Growth: On-Target Rate

Before we fully dive into this, I do need to note that On Target Rate wasn’t something I tracked during the 2024 season. Because of that, we’ll be relying on Pro Football Reference’s weekly data for those numbers.

While that does limit our ability to break things down by specific areas of the field and fully capture where Williams operated best and worst in 2024, it still gives us a solid baseline for comparison. And to help bridge that gap, I’ll layer in additional metrics to better contextualize the differences between the two seasons.

At a glance it looks like there was a fairly significant dip in On Target Rate from 2024 to 2025, with Williams dropping from 72.4% to 67.6%, there’s important context behind that decline, and more importantly, some very encouraging growth to take away from it.

As mentioned earlier, Caleb’s ADOT jumped by nearly a full yard, climbing from 8.1 to 8.9. That alone signals a clear shift in approach, with Williams making a conscious effort to push the ball downfield more consistently. His deep throw rate actually stayed relatively stable, moving from 13.3% in 2024 to 12.9% in 2025, but where things really changed was in the intermediate area. His intermediate throw rate rose from 17.6% to 20.4%, and his intermediate ADOT ticked up from 14.1 to 14.7. At the same time, he cut down on easy, low-depth throws, with his behind-the-line rate dropping from 17.6% to 14.3%.

That shift in distribution matters. Fewer layups and more throws into the intermediate windows naturally come with a lower on-target percentage, but also a higher degree of difficulty and, when executed well, a higher payoff.

On top of that, Williams was operating in a much different environment mechanically. He was asked to play under center at the highest rate of his career, dating back through both his NFL and NCAA experience, while also adjusting his footwork in shotgun to a left-foot-forward staggered stance, something entirely new to him. Those are not small changes, and they can absolutely impact timing and ball placement, especially early on.

And to be clear, some of the dip does fall on Williams himself. There were stretches of inconsistency with ball placement. But as shown in the graph above, and as we covered in detail in Part III of this series, his On Target Rate steadily trended upward as the season progressed. By the back half of the year, he was consistently meeting or exceeding league averages on a weekly basis.

When you combine that late-season growth with his offseason focus, already publicly emphasizing improvements in accuracy heading into 2026, it paints a very optimistic picture. The efficiency is catching up to the aggression, and if that trend continues, this is an area where Williams still has clear room to take another step forward.

Split Comparison

Outside of a very noticeable jump in the 1st quarter split, Caleb steadily improving at each checkpoint throughout the 2025 season. That progression ultimately culminated in him surpassing any of his 2024 splits, finishing with a 77.4% On Target Rate in the final stretch of the year.

That kind of gradual climb is exactly what you want to see, especially given the situation. Williams wasn’t just operating in a new system, he was also adjusting to new mechanics, all the while taking on a more aggressive downfield role. Despite that, the accuracy trended in the right direction split after split.

By the end of the season, the growth wasn’t just noticeable, it was tangible. The consistency in his improvement paints a clear picture of a quarterback actively refining his process in real time, and it reinforces the idea that his accuracy is far from a finished product, with even more room to grow moving forward.

1st Quarter Split: 2024: 68.9% | 2025: 57.2% | ⬇️11.7%
2nd Quarter Split: 2024: 68.8% | 2025: 67.7% | ⬇️1.1%
3rd Quarter Split: 2024: 74.1% | 2025: 68.6% | ⬇️5.5%
4th Quarter Split: 2024: 77.0% | 2025: 77.4% | ⬆️0.4%

Seasonal Growth: Other Statistics and Metrics

Finally, we’ll zoom out and take a look at some more traditional, readily available statistics and metrics to paint a broader picture of the growth Caleb Williams made from 2024 to 2025. All data referenced here can be found across Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, NFL Next Gen Stats, and SumerSports.

For clarity, 2025 categories highlighted in green will indicate improvement from his 2024 marks, while categories highlighted in red will represent areas of regression.

2025: In Summary

In short, 2025 should be viewed as nothing but encouraging, foundational growth from a second-year quarterback finding his footing and then building on it. Caleb Williams, despite some early-season turbulence, showed legitimate, across-the-board improvement in nearly every major metric and category we can point to. And more importantly, it wasn’t just flashes, it was sustained progress that translated week to week as the season wore on.

It’s the kind of development Bears fans simply aren’t used to seeing from the quarterback position. There are still areas that need refinement, accuracy being the most notable, but the strides Williams made in 2025 make one thing very clear to me. The Chicago Bears got the quarterback position right, finally.

And that matters. For the first time since Jim McMahon, and I’ll stand by this, a quarterback who was ahead of his time but ultimately derailed by injuries, the Bears appear to have a true homegrown answer under center. Not just a player with tools, but one showing the ability to grow, adapt, and elevate his game.

Heading into 2026, the ceiling here feels incredibly high. With another offseason to refine his mechanics, continue improving his accuracy, and build on an already strong foundation, the sky truly is the limit. That’s exactly what we’ll dive into in Part V, the final installment of this breakdown series.

So based on everything we’ve broken down here, the year-over-year jump in efficiency, the reduction in negative plays, and the steady improvement in consistency, just how significant do you believe Caleb Williams’ leap from 2024 to 2025 truly was? Let us know in the comments below!

Gary Baugher Jr. is a rookie contributor to WCG, bringing football insight backed by over 16 years of experience in organized football and more than 30 years as a passionate fan of the game. You can follow him on Twitter at @iamcogs.