Can Kevin Stefanski Get The Falcons’ Qb Timeline Right?

A major reason behind the failures of previous Atlanta Falcons coaching staffs was their inability to get the team on the right quarterback timeline.

Arthur Smith went into a critical make-or-break third season in 2023 with a first-year starter in Desmond Ridder. Raheem Morris did the same in 2025 with Michael Penix after trotting out Kirk Cousins in his first season. If new Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski wants to avoid a similar fate, it’ll likely require getting the quarterback timeline correct.

The Falcons’ challenge will be their need to evaluate Penix for another year to see whether he’s their long-term answer at quarterback. Complications arise since Penix is coming off another season-ending knee injury, which makes it unlikely that he’ll hit the ground running whenever he gets back on the field. The injury means he’ll spend his offseason rehabbing rather than taking the critical reps he needs in practice to improve. It’s similar to what happened with Cousins in 2024, except Penix has a decade less of NFL experience to fall back on.

2027 is set to be a pivotal year for Penix

That pushes the Falcons to give Penix two years of evaluation rather than one. Similar to how Cousins looked better a second year removed from his 2023 Achilles tear, Penix should look much better in 2027 in his second season removed from his recent partial ACL tear. Coupled with having a full year to learn Stefanski’s offense and a full offseason to master it, 2027 sets up to be a pivotal year for Penix’s future. At this rate, it could also be the final year of his rookie contract, since picking up Penix’s fifth-year option for the 2028 season appears unlikely given all the current concerns.

If Penix doesn’t break out in 2027 and show that he is a viable long-term solution for the team’s quarterback conundrum, it could put Stefanski in the same boat that ultimately doomed both Smith and Morris: going into a make-or-break 2028 season with a brand new quarterback.

2027 QB class could be Falcons’ salvation

Stefanski’s success in Atlanta potentially rests on avoiding such a fate. Winning will help, since success is the currency that gives coaches time. But if the Falcons are going to win more games under Stefanski, it’ll likely rest on his ability to get more out of the quarterback position. So either the Falcons get Penix to play a lot better, or they pivot to someone else who can. And while much of the focus this offseason will be on the veteran they add as a “bridge” in free agency, there appear to be few good options. So hope may rest on a 2027 draft pick, where they can nab a new passer in a class that is already getting a lot of early hype for how deep it could be.

Hope springs eternal early in the offseason, so few currently expect the 2026 Falcons to be bad enough to land a very high pick in 2027. Therefore, they may not be in a position to draft a quarterback high enough in the first round to automatically usurp Penix’s role as the starter. Instead, they may have to wait and bet on a later-round quarterback again, as they did with Ridder.

Given the potential strength of the 2027 QB class compared to the 2022 class from which Ridder hailed, that should be a better bet. But nonetheless, the odds will never favor a team landing a franchise quarterback in the second or third round.

Not to mention, if Penix takes the bulk of the team’s starting reps during the 2027 season, won’t the team be potentially going down the same exact path with their potential 2027 draft pick being a first-year starter in 2028?

Falcons’ QB future is murky at best

Overall, the future of the Falcons quarterback position isn’t a particularly rosy portrait. Nor is it doomed, since much still needs to play out. Penix could return this year and exceed expectations. An incredible draft prospect or proven veteran quarterback may fall into the Falcons’ lap at some point in the near future. Perhaps for once in our collective lifetimes, Lady Luck will be on the side of the Atlanta Falcons.

But ultimately, the Falcons’ future rests on getting onto a quarterback timeline that works not only for that signal-caller but also for this Stefanski-led coaching staff. In the meantime, they have their work cut out for them.