Can You Count All The Buffalo Bills’ Missed Opportunities Against The Denver Broncos?

The Buffalo Bills lost to the Denver Broncos in heartbreaking fashion during the latest playoff run… which is tradition at this point. When a team loses by an overtime field goal, it’s natural to point out which moment caused the loss. After all, a single play could literally be the difference. What’s my point here? Well let’s rub some salt in our collective wounds and try to catalog every single play that could have changed the outcome.

Let’s have some rules for our “fun.” First, I’ll stick to plays that I think warrant a possible three-point swing, otherwise it’ll just be a list of every play in the game. Second, let’s leave the officiating out of this. The questionable flags and “interception” have been debated enough already.

I’ll try to stick to execution and similar blunders that sunk the Bills. Did I miss any? Did I add too many? Come symbolically scream at me in the comments (within site guidelines of course).

First Quarter

• 9:07 —- Denver 4th & 1: I debated on including this one, as it’s low odds of stopping a team but Buffalo had just done it on 3rd & 1 and this looks like they were napping, maybe assuming that the Broncos weren’t really going for it.

• 8:29 —- Denver 1st & 10: I know I said I’d avoid officiating, but defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi’s offside wasn’t an officiating error, the penalty was very clear. Negating the forced fumble and Buffalo recovery was a huge shift early in the game.
• I want to point out now that this concept can swing both ways. Following the play above, Denver had a pass flat-out dropped in the end zone, followed by a possible missed throw also in the end zone from quarterback Bo Nix. Either of those plays landing is a four-point swing as Denver ultimately kicked a field goal.
• 0:05 — Denver 1st & 10: A botched snap put the ball on the turf. Defensive end Greg Rousseau dove toward it and the luckiest bounce of all time put it back in Bo Nix’ hands. Buffalo would have had the ball inside the Denver 20. While the Bills did force a three and out on the drive, this would have likely yielded a three-point swing at least.

Second Quarter

• 13:27 — Buf 1st & 10: Quarterback Josh Allen had just ran for 26 yards to put Buffalo at the Denver 32-yard line, inside field goal range. James Cook III fumbled the ball, costing Buffalo at least three points.
• 12:49 — Den 1st & 10: Defensive end A.J. Epenesa tips the ball up but can’t corral it. This was mostly luck and Epenesa should get a ton of credit for the pass break up, but just a little more luck and this prevents a Broncos score (touchdown on the drive). It might have been a pick-six if he came down with it.
• 3:13 — Buf 2nd & 9: On the Denver 14, the Bills did score a field goal here, but a touchdown would have obviously been four better. I don’t usually call out bad reads/decisions unless I have clear evidence to think the play was there for the taking by the skill player, AND there was a true window of opportunity for Allen to deliver the ball, AND there’s evidence it was within the intended read for the play. I have a clip that shows all three conditions were present and if this throw was made, Bills fans are so used to even more miraculous play this wouldn’t have even moved the needle.

• 2:27 — Buf 3rd & 9: Like Ogunjobi’s flag earlier, the holding call on right guard O’Cyrus Torrence was a legitimate one. That error, plus wide receiver Keon Coleman dropping a pass that was absolutely in the realm of “catchable” cost Buffalo four points.
• 0:44 — Den 2nd & 10: There were a few points where the Bills could have stopped this touchdown drive from the Broncos, but I don’t think the broadcast showed just how close this really was to an interception.

• 0:29 — Den 2nd & 10: Safety Darnell Savage misread the route of wide receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey who ended up very open in the end zone.
• 0:16 — Buf 1st & 10: Josh Allen just gifted the Broncos points on this. With 16 seconds to go, I am happy to go on record and say that I love the aggressiveness to try for something before the half. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady obviously called a passing play (good) but it broke down and Allen had to scramble (bad). That pretty much confirms whatever happened next would be Allen’s fault. He was about to be tackled and just blindly tossed the ball backwards. While the linemen were back there somewhere, there’s zero assurance it’s in the area he’s tossing the ball. Even if right tackle Spencer Brown recovered it (he was close), and did so cleanly, who the heck is he outrunning for 65 yards? Want to feel even worse about this? Buffalo was down seven, only one score, and would get the ball back after the break. I like the aggression to try something, but this wasn’t a time to invoke Benny Hill sketches and pray for points. Thanks to this gift, the Bills entered halftime down two scores.

Third Quarter

• 14:18 — Buf 2nd & 10: I’m not sure who decided that wide receiver Khalil Shakir should a. Block linebacker Nik Bonitto; and b. Position himself in such a way that left tackle Dion Dawkins was unable to help out… but it led to a strip sack on Josh Allen and more free points for Denver.
• 5:07 — Buf 2nd & 14: The Josh Allen interception. Arm punts can be okay, but not on second down. The collapsing pocket made this a tough throw, but it’s arcing more than I like and behind wide receiver Curtis Samuel, which allowed for the pick.

Fourth Quarter

• 4:16 — Buf 3rd & 8: Josh Allen threw the ball to Khalil Shakir hoping he could make something happen. Shakir weaved into the end zone for a 12-yard touchdown. Except the ball hit the turf first. If it were up just a few inches, Shakir’s touchdown adds four points over the resulting FG after the incomplete.

• 1:01 — Den 1st & 10: The touchdown to wide receiver Marvin Mims can be the stand-in for most of the drive. Buffalo played slow (maybe the altitude crept up on them) and allowed the Broncos to march down the field for a touchdown.
• 0:37 — Buf 1st & 10: Allen and Coleman weren’t on the same page. For my two cents, I think Coleman was looking over the wrong shoulder for the ball. He was plenty open, and a catch would have set Buffalo up around the 20-yard line with about half a minute to play. It doesn’t guarantee a touchdown rather than a field goal, but it would have put them closer and with more time than the next play, which admittedly was pretty great in its own right. The hook and lateral left Buffalo with 24 seconds at the Denver 32.
• Remaining three plays: All incomplete passes. Allen had wide receiver Brandin Cooks in the end zone, but it looks like he slowed down on the route and guaranteed the miss. Shakir had the ball hit him in the hands about halfway to a first down and it ricocheted off. This would have given Buffalo more options to keep the drive going. The infamous missed pass to tight end Dawson Knox. This is the game-winning touchdown if they connect. A Broncos defender in Allen’s face made this a very tough throw, but we’ve seen Allen hit harder throws. That’s not to say I blame Allen exactly, but rather to point out we’re not discussing an impossible throw. To have all three of these plays in a row is just awful and Buffalo settled for a field goal to force overtime.

Overtime

• 10:12 — Buf 2nd & 7: Joe Brady called a pass play with max protect for Allen, with only two receiving options running routes. Dawson Knox came wide open, but linebacker Dondrea Tillman had already beaten the “max” protection and forced Allen to shove the ball toward James Cook for a checkdown that should never have occurred. A completed pass to Knox almost assuredly has the Bills at the 50 at least. To be very clear, Buffalo did move the sticks right after, but never made it to midfield. Had this worked out, it’s likely the play calling shifts a bit and the Bills may not be tossing the ball deep to Cooks to be “intercepted.”

• 8:01 — Buf 2nd & 11: Josh Allen had wide receiver Mecole Hardman Jr. WIIIIIIIIIIIDE open downfield and, well you’ll see in a second. This is the last self-inflicted wound and I’ll let the clip do the talking. The bottom line is that in a game decided by three points, the Bills had nothing but opportunity to pull out a win.