Colts What If: What If The Colts Traded For Matthew Stafford?

This six-part Colts What If series looks back at some of the biggest turning points in franchise history, from the Peyton Manning draft decision to playoff heartbreak, quarterback pivots and coaching chaos, while revisiting what happened, what could have changed, and how different the Colts might look if one major moment had gone the other way.

For Part 4, we get to one of the most frustrating modern what-ifs because this was not some impossible fantasy created by hindsight.

I wrote about this at the time. In January 2021, before Matthew Stafford was traded to the Rams, I wrote that the Colts needed to acquire him. It made sense then, and it looks even more obvious now. The Colts had just gone 11-5 with Philip Rivers, made the playoffs, and pushed a very good Bills team in Buffalo. They had a roster ready to win. They had a coach in Frank Reich who needed a stable veteran quarterback. They had cap flexibility, draft capital and a clear opening at the most important position in football.

Stafford was available. The Colts needed him and they did not get him.

Instead, the Rams made the aggressive move, won the Super Bowl in Stafford’s first season, and have remained dangerous whenever he has been healthy. The Colts pivoted to Carson Wentz, then Matt Ryan, then Anthony Richardson, and the franchise has been trying to solve the same problem ever since.

That is what makes this one so painful. This was not just a missed move. This was the move that could have changed the entire 2020s for the Colts.

The Colts were already close

The biggest reason Stafford made sense is that the Colts did not need him to rescue a bad roster as they were already a playoff team.

The 2020 Colts went 11-5 with Rivers, and while Rivers played well, he was not in his prime anymore. His arm was limited, the offense had a ceiling, and the team still went toe-to-toe with Buffalo in the playoffs. The Colts were not asking Stafford to turn a five-win team into a contender. They were asking him to take an already good team and raise its ceiling.

That is exactly what Stafford did for the Rams. Los Angeles had a similar profile entering the 2021 offseason. The Rams were good, not broken. They had gone 10-6 the year before, made the playoffs, and had a roster that needed a quarterback upgrade to push them into the championship tier. They had more true superstars than the Colts, with Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and Cooper Kupp leading the way, but the Colts had a more balanced roster in several areas.

Indianapolis had Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., a strong offensive line, a good defense, and enough depth to compete. The Rams were more top-heavy. The Colts were probably more balanced. Both teams were in the same basic category: good roster, quarterback question.

The Rams treated that as a reason to be aggressive and the Colts did not.

Stafford changes the 2021 ceiling immediately

The 2021 Colts finished 9-8 with Carson Wentz and still should have made the playoffs. That alone tells you how close the roster was.

Wentz had some good moments, and the season was not a complete disaster from start to finish, yet the quarterback play was too unstable. The Colts needed steadiness, big-game composure and high-end passing. They needed a quarterback who could punish teams for loading up against Taylor, create explosive plays without turning the offense into chaos, and avoid the kind of late-season collapse that ended the year in Jacksonville.

Stafford would have given them that. He was not perfect and he has always had some risk in his game, and turnovers were part of the package. Still, the difference between Stafford and Wentz was massive. Stafford could attack the entire field, throw with timing and anticipation, win from the pocket, and lift the passing game in a way the Colts had not seen since prime, healthy Andrew Luck.

At his best with the Rams, Stafford has played like a top-10 quarterback with top-three stretches. Heck, he just came off an MVP season That level of quarterback play completely changes how a team is viewed.

Before the 2021 season, the Colts had roughly 35-1 Super Bowl odds and a nine-win projection with Wentz. The Rams, with Stafford, were around 13-1 and projected closer to 10.5 wins. Indianapolis may not have been viewed exactly like Los Angeles, but Stafford probably pushes the Colts into that same general tier. A 10.5-win projection would have been reasonable, which puts them safely in the top 4 in the AFC.

The Colts with Stafford probably win 11 or 12 games, compete for the division, and have a strong chance at hosting at least one playoff game. From there, anything becomes possible.

They would not have been guaranteed a Super Bowl, but they definitely would’ve been in the conversation.

The trade cost was huge, and still worth it

This is where people get nervous.

The Rams paid a massive price. They gave Detroit Jared Goff, two first-round picks and a third-round pick. For the Colts, the equivalent would have required the same type of draft capital and probably either a high-level player or additional picks, since they did not have the same type of quarterback contract to send back.

On paper, that is a terrifying price, but in reality, the Colts ended up paying a different version of it anyway, and got almost nothing in return.

They lost their 2022 first-round pick because of the Carson Wentz trade. That pick became the cost of a failed one-year quarterback experiment. In 2023, they used the fourth overall pick on Anthony Richardson because the quarterback position was still unresolved. If Stafford is in Indianapolis, that pick likely is not used on Richardson at all. The Colts do not enter that draft desperate for a raw quarterback swing because they already have their answer.

So when people say the Stafford cost would have been too much, the response is pretty simple: what exactly did the Colts save?

The 2022 first-round pick was gone anyway. The 2023 first-round pick became part of another quarterback gamble. A third-round pick would have been an easy throw-in for a quarterback of Stafford’s caliber. Even if Detroit demanded a 2024 first-round pick, which eventually became Laiatu Latu, it still would have been worth serious consideration.

Latu is a very good player. The Colts are better with him. That still does not change the larger truth of the NFL.

A high-end quarterback is worth more than any non-quarterback.

If the Colts had to include a premium player, that also should not have ended the conversation. Michael Pittman Jr., Shaq Leonard, Jonathan Taylor, or another major piece would have been painful to lose, but no non-quarterback should have been untouchable in a Stafford deal. That does not mean the Colts should have thrown everyone into the trade without limits. It means a very aggressive package would have been justified because the alternative path produced years of mediocrity.

The Colts were afraid of paying the Stafford price.

The Colts decided to keep their roster intact and pray they find a quarterback and it led them to consistent 500 mediocre football. I assure you that even with a a couple of pieces gone, adding Stafford puts them as consistent playoff contenders.

Stafford was the move that fit the roster

The Colts have spent years proving the roster was not terrible.

That sounds strange, because they have not won enough, but that is part of the point. Bad teams with bad quarterback play usually fall apart. The Colts, with below-average or unstable quarterback situations, have often hovered around .500. That suggests the roster was good enough to stay competitive even while the quarterback position dragged everything down.

That is exactly why Stafford was so important. If a team can hang around the middle with Wentz, Ryan, Minshew, Richardson and other temporary answers, what happens when that same team gets a top-10 quarterback with top-five stretches? The answer is obvious: the ceiling rises dramatically.

Stafford would have changed the way defenses played the Colts. Taylor would have seen lighter boxes. Pittman would have had more chances down the field and Pierce could’ve taken off earlier in his career. Reich would have had a quarterback who could execute the full passing game. The offensive line would have been protecting a passer who could actually punish teams for pressure looks and coverage mistakes.

That is the difference between average quarterback play and high-end quarterback play.

The Rams showed the Colts what they missed

The hardest part of this what-if is that the Rams immediately proved the concept.

They traded for Stafford and won the Super Bowl in Year 1.

That does not mean the Colts automatically would have done the same. Los Angeles had elite top-end talent, Sean McVay, and a roster built for that specific push. The AFC path also would have been difficult, with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson all in the picture.

Still, the Rams showed exactly why the move was worth it. They were a good team that needed a quarterback to become a championship team. They paid a massive price, got the quarterback, and won the title.

That is the whole point!!!!!!!!!

The Colts were in a similar spot and chose the safer-looking path. Instead of paying the premium price for Stafford, they tried to find value with Wentz. Then they tried Matt Ryan. Then they drafted Richardson. Every step was an attempt to solve the same problem without landing the proven high-end quarterback who was available in 2021. They always tried to throw jabs at the opponent when they needed to try an overhand right.

The Rams saw the window and acted.

The Colts saw the window and hesitated.

This could have changed the entire Ballard-Reich era

If Stafford comes to Indianapolis, the 2020s look completely different.

There is no Carson Wentz trade. There is no Matt Ryan trade. There is no desperate need to take Anthony Richardson fourth overall in 2023. Frank Reich likely has a much better chance to survive because he finally has the veteran quarterback his offense needed. Chris Ballard’s reputation looks completely different because the biggest flaw of his tenure, the post-Luck quarterback carousel, is likely solved.

The Colts would not have been guaranteed a championship, but they would have been relevant in a much more serious way.

With Stafford, Indianapolis is not stuck trying to talk itself into short-term quarterback solutions every offseason. The Colts are not entering every year with the same question. They are not wasting good roster pieces while searching for the one position that changes everything. They are in the AFC fight.

Maybe they win a Super Bowl. Maybe they do not. The AFC was loaded, and winning it all is never simple. However, with Stafford, they would have had a legitimate path. They would have been a consistent contender instead of a team stuck around .500 and hoping the next quarterback patch finally works.

This is one of the biggest what-ifs in Colts history

Some what-ifs are fun because they are dramatic. This one is frustrating because it was realistic.

The Colts had the roster. They had the need. They had the coach. They had the draft capital. They had the reason to go all-in. Stafford was available, and the fit was obvious enough that many people saw it before the Rams ever won anything with him.

That is why this one belongs near the top of the modern Colts list.

This was not a random superstar fantasy. This was a direct solution to the exact problem that ruined the Ballard-Reich era. The Colts needed a quarterback after Rivers. Stafford needed a new team. Indianapolis had a playoff roster and a clear opening. Everything lined up.

Then the Colts watched another team make the move, win the Super Bowl, and provide the blueprint they refused to follow.

It was right there!!!

The final verdict

If the Colts traded for Matthew Stafford in 2021, they become a Super Bowl contender immediately.

They may not win it all, but they are in the conversation. They likely enter the season as one of the better teams in the AFC, win more games than they did with Wentz, avoid the Jacksonville collapse, and give themselves a real playoff path with a quarterback capable of winning in January.

The long-term impact may matter even more. Stafford would have given the Colts stability at quarterback, kept them out of the Wentz and Ryan cycle, likely prevented the Richardson desperation swing, and given the Ballard-Reich era its best chance to become something more than a run of average seasons.

The trade package would have been expensive. Two first-round picks, a third-rounder, and maybe a premium player or additional capital would have hurt. It still would have been worth it.

The Colts did not avoid paying the price for Stafford.

They just paid it in a worse way.