Eagles-jaguars Film Preview: This Matchup Comes Down To Philly’s Defensive Front

Each week, I’ll publish two film-room previews: one focusing on the offense and one on the defense. These are primarily film-based, focusing on the schemes, tendencies, and matchups that could shape Sunday’s game, with all statistics coming from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. I also record a video version for Patreon, where I break down the plays in greater detail and where you can further support my work.

The Eagles are coming to London, and I’ll be there! I would quite like them to give me something to enjoy after the past two weeks, but the Jaguars’ offense is going to make that difficult. I really enjoyed watching Liam Coen’s passing game. Let’s get into it.

Pass Game

Coen blends a Shanahan/McVay-style outside-zone foundation with spread formations and an aggressive intermediate passing game. There is plenty of motion, multiple tight-end personnel, and play action from under center, but he is also happy to spread the defense out and let Lawrence attack from the shotgun. Personally, I think Lawrence looks more comfortable in those shotgun sets. His timing and anticipation have been excellent, and Coen gives him a wonderful variety of concepts to attack the middle of the field.

The first thing that stood out was how the Jaguars change which receiver threatens the defense vertically. You cannot just assume the outside receiver is clearing space for an underneath route. On the play below, the slot receiver gets vertical instead, and Parker Washington makes a fantastic catch. Even the running back’s route contributes by creating traffic for the coverage. These are well-designed concepts that force defenders to communicate and distribute routes correctly. The Eagles cannot afford to lose track of a receiver simply because he is coming from an unexpected alignment. Communication will be very important this week.

Parker Washington is really good. He leads the Jaguars with 228 receiving yards and is their most frequent first-read target. Coen uses him to attack downfield, and he has made some difficult catches. Alongside him, Jakobi Meyers has been extremely reliable, catching 13 of his 15 targets, while Brenton Strange gives Lawrence a productive tight end over the middle. Strange has generated 80 yards after the catch already, so the Eagles need to finish tackles when he gets the ball underneath. Brian Thomas remains another downfield option, even though his involvement has been smaller so far, due to some drop issues going back to last year.

Lawrence is seeing the field well and throwing with real confidence. The Jaguars run a lot of posts, deep crossers, dagger concepts, and double posts. Dagger pairs a vertical clear-out with a deeper in-breaking route underneath, and the Jaguars have several ways to create the space for that throw. Lawrence is anticipating those windows rather than waiting for a receiver to stand there waving at him. Some of his red zone throws are outstanding, too. Coen continues to attack aggressively even with less field to work with, and Lawrence has the arm and confidence to make those throws.

This is a major test for the Eagles’ linebackers and safeties. The Jaguars throw to the intermediate area more frequently than any other offense this season, and the Eagles have not defended that area particularly well. Those deep crossers and in-breaking routes ask linebackers to gain depth, recognize what is developing behind them, and still deal with receivers passing through their zones. After the issues against the Rams, I would expect Coen to make the Eagles prove that they can handle it.

Although I prefer the Jaguars’ passing game from the shotgun, they absolutely can hurt you with play action from under center. The example against the Browns below shows the connection between their running game and passing game. The linebackers react to the run action, and Lawrence attacks the space behind them. The Eagles’ linebackers cannot charge downhill simply because the formation and backfield action look like outside zone. Coen has built passing concepts off those same looks, and the Jaguars have been productive with them.

Some of the receivers Coen has schemed open downfield are almost unfair. The switch release below is a great example. The outside receiver moves inside, threatens a corner route, and then bends back to the post. That changes both the receiver’s position and the direction the coverage expects him to go. If the Eagles sit in basic spot-drop Cover 3 or Cover 2 and let those routes develop without matching them properly, they’ll give Lawrence some very easy throws. Vic Fangio needs his secondary to recognize the releases, pass routes off correctly, and communicate well.

There are opportunities for the defense, though. Lawrence’s aggression can work against him. He wants to get the ball out quickly and attack tight windows in the middle of the field, and I think he has been a little fortunate to throw only two interceptions. Some throws look fantastic when they work but give defenders a chance when the timing breaks down. Quick pressure can hurry him into attempting a pass that he should reconsider. The Eagles’ secondary needs to capitalize when those chances arrive.

The offensive line is the biggest reason I think the Eagles can make this uncomfortable. The Jaguars have allowed pressure on only 27.2% of dropbacks, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. But that does not match how consistently convincing the individual blockers look. Lawrence’s average time to throw is just 2.56 seconds, which helps the offense get the ball away before protection problems develop. When pressure does arrive, 25.8% of those pressures have become sacks. He has only two recorded scrambles so far, so escaping and creating with his legs has not been a significant answer.

Anton Harrison had some really poor reps against the Bengals. Myles Murphy absolutely worked him with power, driving him backward and collapsing the pocket. Jonathan Greenard looks like the most obvious Eagles matchup to exploit that weakness if he is available. The interior is also worth attacking, particularly Ezra Cleveland and rookie Emmanuel Pregnon. The Eagles need to win individual rushes and compress the space Lawrence has to step into. If the coverage can make him hold the ball for an extra beat, there should be opportunities up front.

I would also like Fangio to mix in pressure this week. The Jaguars have been outstanding against four-man rushes but considerably less productive against blitzes. That does not mean the Eagles should recklessly send extra defenders and leave the middle of the field exposed. Their own blitz results have been poor. However, showing pressure, changing who comes, and selectively bringing an extra rusher could help disrupt Lawrence’s first read and force the protection to make decisions. I would use simulated pressures alongside actual blitzes to make it harder for him to identify the same comfortable answer every snap.

Run Game

The Jaguars build their running game around outside zone and duo, with inside zone and pulling concepts providing some variety. Outside zone accounts for 36% of their charted runs, and duo/man concepts account for another 24%. Bhayshul Tuten handles most of the work on those plays. He looks much more comfortable running from under center than from the shotgun in the games I watched, which is interesting given his college background. His timing with the blocking looks better, and he has the burst to turn a well-blocked run into a substantial gain.

Every outside-zone run gaining at least 10 yards this year has come from under center. Their outside-zone efficiency from under center is only around break-even, but the shotgun version has been much worse. There are useful tendencies here for the Eagles to recognize.

I particularly liked the looks with a tight end aligned at fullback. The Jaguars do not use them often, but they have been very effective. That extra blocker can change the picture for the linebackers by inserting into a gap or helping create an angle the defense didn’t expect. Coen also has tight ends and receivers who contribute as blockers. Like most modern offenses, they can make a formation heavier than the personnel label initially suggests. Yes, another week of asking defensive backs to take on blocks by tight ends who can block. Wonderful.

The Jaguars have run well to the left, behind Harrison, even though I was unimpressed with his pass protection. The edges need to hold their position against outside zone, while the interior has to prevent duo from generating movement and opening a second lane for Tuten. He has already forced 13 missed tackles, so getting someone into the right gap is only part of the job. The first defender needs to finish.

Chris Rodriguez provides another option, particularly on inside zone, as he is used less on outside zone runs. I expect Fangio to pay close attention to personnel and alignment tendencies rather than treat every run look the same. The Jaguars use two or three tight ends on roughly 41% of snaps, but those packages still contain credible receiving threats. The Eagles have to fit the run without making themselves too easy to manipulate with play action.

Final Thoughts

This is a difficult matchup. Lawrence is playing well, and Coen has designed a passing game that can expose exactly the communication and intermediate-coverage issues the Eagles have shown recently. I would be surprised if the Jaguars did not move the ball. The Eagles’ opportunity is to create negative plays and take advantage of Lawrence’s aggression, rather than expect to shut down every well-designed concept.

For me, this comes down to the defensive front. Fangio can help with disguise and pressure, but the Eagles need their rushers to beat an offensive line that has benefited from Lawrence getting the ball out quickly. If the coverage holds up long enough for those weaknesses to matter, the defense has a chance to produce sacks and turnovers. If Lawrence can settle into his first read and fire intermediate throws all afternoon, this could be a long game. I’ll be watching it in person, so I would really appreciate the pass rush showing up!

Lastly, if you are in London, let me know in the comments! I’ll be around before the game!