Early Week 5 Nfl Betting, Odds: 2 Wagers That I Like Right Now

Looking at early bets for Week 5, there is less in the market than I would normally attack for two key reasons. The first is that injuries continue to pile up around the league, and so many of these teams and markets are defined by which way the mid-week practice reports and news go, dictating who is healthy enough to play. Those news breaks will drastically impact the line movements. I don't have more information than what is publicly available, and would simply be applying my best guess to the market. That is sometimes a really good idea but nothing presents itself strongly for doing so now (maybe Atlanta Falcons +2.5 thinking Lamar Jackson can't go).

The second is that bye weeks have begun — the Chiefs and Panthers will be off this week — and thus we have one less game to attack as well.

Here are two Week 5 bets that I have found actionable.

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 54.5)

Starting off with the injury updates, the Rams came out of their Week 4 comeback win over the Philadelphia Eagles pretty much unscathed.

Star wideout Puka Nacua looked fantastic and reported no setbacks (he had 12 targets, nine receptions, 125 yards and a 2-yard rushing touchdown). Aaron Donald might be back for the Rams after missing last game with back soreness. On the other side, the Bills dealt with more injuries to WR DJ Moore, DT Ed Oliver, CB Christian Benford and safety Jordan Poyer. Losing Moore might be OK considering the rise of Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid this season, but the defensive injuries are a real problem. Matthew Stafford will be able to lean on a strong run game to create clean pockets. I think the Rams move the ball effortlessly here.

Bet the Los Angeles Rams to cover the spread at sportsbooks

I am very surprised this line is not at -3 yet and think it will close there, making the -2.5 a very valuable grab early in the week. The Rams took market action late in the week against the Eagles, closing at -3.5 on the road, and the Patriots took action down from +7.5 to +6.5 at kickoff against the Bills last week (while New England was also dealing with some key injuries).

Both the Rams won and covered, and the Bills lost outright, and I expect those market patterns to continue.

Bet: L.A. Rams -2.5 (-118)

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 44)

After four weeks, one of my biggest adjustments against preseason priors is higher on the Steelers offense, and lower on their defense.

Aaron Rodgers is throwing the ball further downfield this year with revamped offensive weapons and it clearly shows in his average depth of target (aDOT) stats. His aDOT has risen from 6.0 yards per attempt last season to 10.0 this season. This is something that new head coach Mike McCarthy has specifically referenced about changing within the offense, and the addition of Michael Pittman Jr. and rise of Roman Wilson are key reasons to make that possible. On the defensive side of the ball, the obvious first point is trading away their top man coverage defensive back Joey Porter Jr.

However, the run defense has dropped off significantly as well. The Steelers D allows 113 rushing yards per game — just about average for the NFL, and a near top-10 in efficiency in 4.3 yards per carry. This defense has been historically elite at stopping the run, and has regressed to the middle of the pack. Now, they face an Indianapolis Colts team with elite RB Jonathan Taylor (off a two-touchdown game in London) and the sixth-best red zone efficiency metrics in the NFL.

The Colts have a strong offensive scheme under head coach Shane Steichen; they move the ball well between the 20s and convert when they are close. The Indianapolis offense has scored above its implied team total in three of its four games this season, and I expect that to continue.

Bet: Colts-Steelers over 44