Fantasy Football: Brock Bowers Is Back — And He Looks Ready To Break The Game

Target data is something we need to consider every week, but it doesn't stop there. Every week we'll jump into the spreadsheets to try to figure out what's going on with pass-catchers — who's popping (or slumping) and some of the reasons why.

Open up those spreadsheets and let's see what we find.

Brock Bowers can break the game

I didn't have a lot of interest in Bowers at his second-round ADP this summer. He was coming off a year ruined by injury, and I didn't like the opportunity cost of selecting him instead of an impact receiver or running back. Kirk Cousins is a back-nine quarterback (that's putting it kindly) and rookie QB Fernando Mendoza has a wide range of outcomes. When Bowers had a meniscus procedure a few weeks back and missed the first two games, I felt further validated by the soft fade.

But Bowers has made a career out of being an outlier. He's the only player to win the Mackey Award (college's best tight end) more than once. His rookie year in 2024 was an unstoppable party (112-1,194-5), and despite missing five games last year, he still scored seven times and averaged 56.7 yards per game.

And then there was Bowers' 2026 debut in Week 3.

A 10-116-1 line speaks for itself — screams for itself — but the genesis of the usage is even more impressive. Bowers received a first-read target on 50% of the Las Vegas pass attempts, an unheard-of number (for context, Jaxon Smith-Njigba logged a 44.6% number last year, the highest in the last five seasons). And the Raiders didn't bog Bowers down with blocking assignments — he ran a route on 94.6% of the Cousins dropbacks (that stat was at 84% and 80% the last two years).

New head coach (and offensive designer) Klint Kubiak is a talent elevator. His fingerprints were all over JSN's monster season last year. And perhaps Cousins, at age 38, has more left than I realized. And heck, bringing this back to the top, Cousins knows how to get production from a tight end — the historical Kyle Pitts Sr. (more on him below) game last December (11-166-3 on a Thursday night) came with Cousins at the controls.

Ranking Trey McBride as the TE1 all summer was reasonable — he still could claim that spot — and I wasn't the only person expecting a big year from Loveland. But I'm prepared to have all the FOMO watching Bowers toy with overmatched linebackers and defensive backs for the next three months. The Raiders look better than expected, and this offense needs Bowers to dominate targets, given the modest talent in the receiver room.

What's wrong with Kyle Pitts Sr.?

It was exciting to see the Falcons offense show up in Week 3. This was a team that didn't even have a red-zone trip in the first two weeks. We're still not sure how good QB Michael Penix Jr. really is, but he's obviously great for Drake London, and a lifter for Bijan Robinson, too.

Kyle Pitts Sr.? Not so fast.

Penix has made 13 starts as a pro, and played in 17 games overall. The cumulative stats are a little less than what we'd see in a full season. Most of his indexed efficiency stats are below code, though he is better than league average in avoiding negative plays (sacks, interceptions).

When Penix looks downfield, he only has eyes for London. Here's his target distribution over 460 professional passes:

— London: 139 targets, 89-1,341-8

— Robinson: 65 targets, 49-499-2

— Pitts: 62 targets, 44-428-2

Even when Pitts draws a Penix target, it's not offering much downfield. His career YPA per quarterback reads like this:

— Matt Ryan, 9.4 (109 attempts)

— Kirk Cousins, 8.4 (132 attempts)

— Taylor Heinicke, 7.6 (19 attempts)

— Desmond Ridder, 7.2 (73 attempts)

— Michael Penix, 6.9 (62 attempts)

I suppose you could look at the Penix/Pitts data and conclude "small sample," but I'm not sure that caveat really applies anymore. They played in nine games together last year and Pitts had a 36-357-1 return. No volume, no splash plays, little goal-line equity. Pitts had just one catch and two targets last week, despite the Falcons rolling up 498 yards of offense and 35 points.

Pitts has been called a unicorn since he came into the league five years ago. But maybe this is a case of a round peg and a square hole.

Kalif Raymond, fantasy obstructor

When the Bears added Raymond before this season, there was no apparent reason for fantasy adjustment. Raymond was entering his age-32 season and he's had a respectable but underwhelming career. He's never had 50 catches in a season. He's never gone past 616 yards receiving. He had all of nine touchdown catches in nine years. He's been a good return man and a depth player; that's about it. And even as his previous time in Detroit had overlap with Ben Johnson, the results were muted.

But the Chicago passing tree isn't as narrow as we suspected — and it's Raymond changing the dynamic. Through three games, he's rocking a 19-214–1 line. He's caught 19 of his 21 targets, an excellent 90.5% catch rate. He's averaging 10.2 yards per target, which is also excellent.

Luther Burden III was active Monday against Philadelphia and now leads the Bears with his 23 targets. But Raymond's 21 looks are coming at the expense of other pieces here — Rome Odunze has just 13 targets (despite a juicy 10.7 yards per target) and Colston Loveland is stuck at nine targets (and 3.8 YPT). It's extra painful for fantasy managers that Odunze (bobble) and Loveland (tackled at the one) both narrowly missed touchdowns in Week 3.

All summer we dreamt of Burden becoming the Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Chicago offense, but it's telling that Raymond has a slightly lower aDOT than Burden (6.0 versus 7.2). Meanwhile, Odunze is almost all shot plays — he's at 17.6 YPT. Fantasy managers have spent the last few days trying to figure out if Raymond has enough fantasy juice to actually be a trustworthy commodity on Sundays, but at minimum, he's trusted enough to muck up the spike seasons we imagined for the rest of this passing game.

Statistics from Fantasy Points and Pro Football Reference were used in the research and composition of this article.