Fantasy Football Rankings: Hayden Winks' Qb, Te, D/st, Kicker Blueprint For Week 5

The Blueprint is my weekly column and basically everything that I use to build out the most accurate rankings I can. There will be an RB column, a WR column and this combination column on the onesie positions. You will find film notes and endless charts. Maybe enough charts to stress test the Yahoo website. I kid.

It's impossible to get every ranking thoroughly by Thursday Night Football, so be sure to keep checking in on these columns through Sunday morning. As always, my full rankings at every position are available.

Jump to different parts of this article

• QB rankings

• TE rankings

• D/ST analysis

• Kicker

Week 5 Projected Points

Most of the charts you will see are scatterplots. They are labeled as best as I can, and if you are looking for more information, always scan the title of each chart. This chart is simply projected points and plays per game. The best fantasy teams are up and to the right, so the Saints have a chance to deliver a raucous performance.

Note: Total-yardage projections are based on betting markets.

Week 5 Flex Projections

Not all players are listed in the markets.

Week 5 QB Rankings

1. Josh Allen (at LAR) - 23.1 proj. points

Allen drafters on Yahoo Fantasy have a 58% winning percentage through four weeks, the highest of any QB. He's averaging 30.0 fantasy points this year as the clear QB1 overall. Allen has cleared 20+ fantasy points in eight of nine recent games.

2. Dak Prescott (vs. TB) - 20.3 proj. points

The Cowboys are first in points per drive (3.4), which is also the best mark since 2000 through four weeks. Prescott is welcoming back star LG Tyler Smith (thumb) with the rest of his offense healthy. Prescott likely won't be pushed by the Buccaneers on a short week, but offenses typically start off with a pass-heavy game plan against DT Vita Vea and company.

3. Matthew Stafford (vs. BUF) - 21 proj. points

The Rams' stars are healthy, and the Bills' secondary is not playing well. They simply don't have the corners to stop these elite WRs on the perimeter, and with their strong DTs playing well, it should be a fairly pass-heavy game plan for the Rams. Buffalo is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs. L.A. has the second-highest team total of Week 5 while playing at home on Monday Night Football.

4. Jared Goff (at ARI) - 21.4 proj. points

Goff is averaging 304 passing YPG (QB2) in a continuous high-scoring environment. The Lions can't stop anyone with their secondary, so Goff is constantly having to throw deep into fourth quarters. The Cardinals have run into the same problem, so it's not surprising to see the Lions projected for 30.0 points (first) while Arizona is projected for 24.5 points themselves. The Cardinals have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to QBs so far, including QB6 and QB10 finishes from backups Jameis Winston and Drew Lock.

5. Drake Maye (vs. LV) - 18.5 proj. points

6. Trevor Lawrence (vs. PHI) - 19.2 proj. points

7. Jacoby Brissett (vs. DET) - 19.5 proj. points

8. Jayden Daniels (vs. NYG) - 20 proj. points

9. Brock Purdy (at SEA) - 17.6 proj. points

10. Joe Burrow (at MIA) - 19.8 proj. points

11. Bo Nix (at LAC) - 17.1 proj. points

12. Kyler Murray (at NO) - 18.7 proj. points

13. C.J. Stroud (at TEN) - 16.7 proj. points

14. Jordan Love (vs. CHI) - 16.7 proj. points

15. Tyler Shough (vs. MIN) - 16.6 proj. points

16. Sam Darnold (vs. SF) - 17 proj. points

17. Aaron Rodgers (vs. IND) - 24.1 proj. points

18. Michael Penix Jr. (vs. BAL) - 14.7 proj. points

19. Tyson Bagent (at GB) - 16.3 proj. points

20. Deshaun Watson (at NYJ) - 16.6 proj. points

21. Jalen Hurts (at JAX) - 15.6 proj. points

22. Jalon Daniels (at DAL) - 16.1 proj. points

23. Kirk Cousins (at NE) - 14.6 proj. points

24. Daniel Jones (at PIT) - 14.9 proj. points

25. Justin Herbert (vs. DEN) - 19.6 proj. points

26. Tyler Huntley (at ATL) - 18.3 proj. points

27. Geno Smith (vs. CLE) - 14.4 proj. points

28. Malik Willis (vs. CIN) - 15 proj. points

29. Jameis Winston (at WAS) - 13.1 proj. points

30. Cam Ward (vs. HOU) - 11.4 proj. points

Week 5 TE Rankings

1. Trey McBride (vs. DET) - 80.5 proj. yards

McBride is one of the biggest positive regression candidates of the week. He "only" has 13.2 half PPR points per game despite his usage expecting him to have 18.2. That is a gap that can only be explained by bad luck. McBride is still a total savage on tape, and a date at home against the very vulnerable Lions secondary is just the time for him to get back into form. They've allowed the most fantasy points to TEs so far, with Kenyon Sadiq (TE4), Dalton Kincaid (TE3), and Juwan Johnson (TE7) scoring and eclipsing 54 yards.

2. Brock Bowers (at NE) - 72.5 proj. yards

Bowers is the TE1 (20.1 half PPR points per game) on TE1 overall usage (19.1 expected points), with only Trey McBride in his neighborhood in terms of involvement. Bowers is literally more of a WR than TE at this point, and HC Klint Kubiak is finding ways to unlock him down the field. It's helping that Kirk Cousins is making the occasional out-of-structure play, too.

The Patriots should put star CB1 Christian Gonzalez on Bowers for most of this game. New England has been the best defense against fantasy TEs so far, without a single player going for more than 35 yards, including Dalton Kincaid last week. It's not a great spot for him, but that only means so much at this point.

3. Sam LaPorta (at ARI) - 51.5 proj. yards

LaPorta's TD was a 3x1 set where he was the isolated pass catcher as a first-read target in the end zone. The play before that was as a boundary WR on 4th-and-5 in-cut for a first-read, first-down. He also had near TD on a corner route in the end zone from the slot where he was the first read. Not every TE gets this treatment, but he's that good at the catch point and this is the OC Drew Petzig offense. His 23.6 expected half PPR points from Week 4 were the most by a TE all season long. He's the TE5 on TE3 usage this season.

4. George Kittle (at SEA) - 54.5 proj. yards

Kittle is the TE2 on TE9 usage, once again dunking all over my model and my preseason takes. His explosiveness has been strong, and he isn't slipping around the field like he was at times in Australia. He just loves the United States of America, I guess. This will be his toughest test to date with the Seahawks once again looking potent defensively. They've allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game, and the betting markets believe the 49ers will be held to 21.5 points. Kittle has yardage totals of 29, 25 and 58 against coach Mike Macdonald, but he's scored three total times in them.

5. Mike Gesicki (at MIA)

This assumes Tee Higgins (adductor) and Ja'Marr Chase (concussion) miss after not practicing on Wednesday. Gesicki is a slot player for them and is in line for a huge workload like he's had in previous fill-in games. He's played six games without Higgins as a Bengal and is the TE6 in usage (9.1 expected half PPR points) and receiving yards per game (49). Those numbers should be better if Chase also misses in theory.

On top of that, the Bengals are facing the worst defense in the NFL this week. Miami allowed T.J. Hockenson to go for 119 yards last week, and both Travis Kelce and George Kittle have generated massive plays with separate scores, too. It's been three straight outings allowing a top-eight TE for the Dolphins.

6. Dalton Kincaid (at LAR) - 49.5 proj. yards

Kincaid is still a receiving-only player, which makes it easier for him to be scripted out of games like what has happened in back-to-back outings:

Kincaid is still the TE11 this year thanks to his explosiveness and ball tracking skills, but it's on TE21 expected points per game. If not for the Bills' high team totals, then there'd be no reason to believe in him as a potential top-five option. The DJ Moore AC joint injury adds to the potential against the Rams on Monday Night Football. Buffalo projects for 25.75 points.

7. Tucker Kraft (vs. CHI) - 49.5 proj. yards

Kraft is so much better than how he's played to start the year (TE23 on TE6 usage), but the good news is he's a full-time player, is showing straight-line explosiveness on tape and is coming off his best game of the year. He's been the TE10 and TE6 in expected points after Jayden Reed exited the field with a season-ending neck injury. Kraft will be needed against the Bears, who haven't faced a fantasy-relevant TE yet.

8. Colston Loveland (at GB) - 37.5 proj. yards

Loveland has unfortunately gone under his usage-based expected points in four straight games. He's turned TE13 usage into just TE38 fantasy points per game because he hasn't converted his red-zone targets into touchdowns. His route share is also 10-20% lower than the truly elite TEs right now and faces more target competition than everyone else at the position. Loveland is too good for this to hold, but he does only have a 15% target share and 21 air yards per game right now. The Bears are projected for 24.0 points (ninth) with Tyson Bagent at QB, and the Packers just placed LB Edgerrin Cooper (Achilles) on IR. This is the first time they've faced a fantasy-relevant TE this season.

9. Isaiah Likely (at WAS) - 40.5 proj. yards

Likely is the TE8 on TE4 usage this season, and Jameis Winston clearly has eyes on him. Likely had 15.5 expected half PPR points (TE5) last week, while being targeted underneath on first reads and downfield on prayers. Winston's decision-making, accuracy and arm strength remain suspect to me, but we're chasing volume and Likely has a section of the call sheet carved out for him. His 31% target share leads the position, so all it takes is the Giants to get in negative game script to take off.

The matchup is also good. The Commanders have allowed Dallas Goedert (TE2), Jake Ferguson (TE4) and AJ Barner (69 yards) spike weeks this season. They've been a pass funnel unit so far, allowing just 94 rushing YPG (27th) versus 255 passing YPG (eighth).

10. Tyler Warren (at PIT) - 50.5 proj. yards

It's concerning that without Alec Pierce and Keenan Allen last week, Warren could only muster up five scoreless receptions for 41 yards as the TE21 overall. The offense won't generate many pass-game explosives with their style, and the OL has regressed versus their peak a few seasons ago. Warren will always be a short-area dominant player without the high-end speed and fluidity of the truly elite TEs. That's okay if we keep expectations in check. He's the TE13 on TE8 usage this year, even with injuries breaking his way.

11. Juwan Johnson (vs. MIN) - 42.5 proj. yards

Johnson is the TE4 on TE5 usage this season, and he's been at least the TE14 in usage in all four games this season. In 15 games with Tyler Shough dating back to last year, Johnson is averaging 9.9 half PPR points (TE7). He's made countless plays after the catch this season, and the Saints didn't have Noah Fant (abs) active on Monday Night Football, leading to a 75% route rate. That's slightly up from 72% and 62%.

The Week 5 matchup is what is holding him back. The Saints only project for 20.5 points against the chaotic Vikings defense. I'm not sure if their new (struggling) LT is ready, and teams haven't cracked the code with TEs against DC Brian Flores. Colston Loveland nearly had a goose egg back in Week 2, while every other TE has gone scoreless on limited receptions.

12. Harold Fannin Jr. (at NYJ) - 36.5 proj. yards

Fannin's Week 1 dud feels like a long time ago at this point. He's the TE9 on TE12 usage this year with back-to-back top-10 outings. The Browns are quietly second in neutral pass rate right now, as new HC Todd Monken has adapted to his personnel yet again. It's the way to play it for them, and it's going to help Fannin hold onto TE1/2 relevance even if Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion are screaming upgrades to Fannin's competition as a record-setting rookie. The Jets are better at defending TEs than WRs so far if we want to nitpick the matchup, but there's no real reason to be nervous with Fannin's individual projection.

13. Tyler Higbee (vs. BUF)

Higbee has been the TE3 and TE18 in usage over the past two weeks as the clear-cut top receiving option in the group with Terrence Ferguson on IR. He turned six targets into 67 yards last week in a difficult road matchup, and now the Rams are at home on Monday Night Football against a struggling Bills defense. There are worse thrown darts.

14. Kenyon Sadiq (vs. CLE) - 32.5 proj. yards

With the Jets only playing 32 snaps of offense (fourth fewest in a single game in NFL history, folks), Sadiq busted. He didn't catch any of his four targets, while playing 69% of snaps and running 67% of routes. He was the TE4 on TE9 usage in Week 3 without Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor, however.

15. Hunter Henry (vs. LV) - 37.5 proj. yards

16. Pat Freiermuth (vs. IND) - 27.5 proj. yards

17. Jake Ferguson (vs. TB) - 26.5 proj. yards

18. Mark Andrews (at ATL) - 29.5 proj. yards

19. T.J. Hockenson (at NO)

Hockenson's 18.4 expected half PPR points in Week 4 were his most since 2023 Week 10, and it's obviously not a coincidence that it happened without Justin Jefferson (ankle). Hockenson was an outlet and quick first read up the seam against an inexperienced Dolphins defense, but with the WR group underwhelming, he's looking more intriguing than ever. The warning is he's not a big-play threat, and the Vikings are 29th in neutral pass rate right now. He's best treated as a low-end TE1 even after what was likely his season-high game.

20. Michael Mayer (at NE) - 28.5 proj. yards

21. Dalton Schultz (at TEN) - 37.5 proj. yards

22. AJ Barner (vs. SF) - 23.5 proj. yards

23. Oronde Gadsden II (vs. DEN)

24. Brenton Strange (vs. PHI) - 33.5 proj. yards

25. Kyle Pitts Sr. (vs. BAL) - 24.5 proj. yards

Pitts is the TE27 on TE22 usage in his 14 career games with Michael Penix Jr., who has peppered Drake London with a wild 35% target share. That held true on Monday Night Football when Pitts had three targets (mostly off play action) as a rotational player. He only ran a route on 10-of-22 dropbacks.

Speaking of drops, Pitts is droppable in fantasy as the TE50 on TE49 usage. He should be thought of as London insurance. He would flirt with top-eight fantasy scores, if not higher, if London misses at any point. We're done here until proven otherwise.

26. Chig Okonkwo (vs. NYG) - 27.5 proj. yards

27. Cade Otton (at DAL) - 29.5 proj. yards

28. Darnell Washington (vs. IND) - 22.5 proj. yards

29. Greg Dulcich (vs. CIN) - 27.5 proj. yards

30. Evan Engram (at LAC) - 17.5 proj. yards

Week 5 DEF Chart

My full rankings at every position are available here.

Week 5 K Chart

My full rankings at every position are available here.