Fantasy Football Sleepers, Busts & Predictions: 2026 Houston Texans

In C.J. Stroud’s first ever postseason game, he passed for 3 touchdowns against 0 interceptions in a 45-14 beatdown of the Browns. His passer rating was 157.2. In five games since, he has 3 touchdowns against 6 interceptions. His passer rating is 70.1, and the Texans have gone 2-3, and their two wins have come when Justin Herbert fell apart at the seams in 2024 and when the Steelers offense might as well have not shown up last postseason. Stroud’s falloff in the regular season has gotten the headline, but it’s really the postseason where his struggles have been the starkest. The Texans haven’t scored more than 16 points in any of their three playoff losses. Stroud’s future — in Houston or elsewhere — will be one of the biggest topics of the NFL season. There’s a path for the Texans to get back to the playoffs even if he is more the version of him from 2024-2025 than the looked-like-a-star rookie of 2023 (source: they made the playoffs in 2024-2025), but if he can’t look like a star in the postseason, the Texans have less than zero shot at a Super Bowl.

2026 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Houston Texans

Sleeper: Marlin Klein, TE

Dalton Schultz has had one very key attribute for his six-year run as a relevant fantasy tight end: Exclusivity. The most targets earned by a tight end on a Dalton Schultz team in the last six years who wasn’t Schultz was 22, by Jake Ferguson in 2022 and Cade Stover in 2024. There just hasn’t been target competition for Schultz. Klein also might not be that either. After all, he only had 38 receptions in four years of college, peaking with 248 yards and a touchdown last year at Michigan. But he enters the NFL as a known quantity as a blocker, and blocking is something Schultz isn’t any great shakes at. That’s definitely why the Texans drafted Klein in the second round ahead of guys like Max Klare and Oscar Delp. And if he can establish himself as a blocker, especially on a team that needs blocking help, that’s a path to playing time, which is half the battle. I’m reminded of Will Dissly, who had 25 receptions for 336 yards in his college career and then 105 yards in his very first NFL game. He’s never been a star in the NFL, but he’s had seasons of 349 and 481 yards, of 4 and 3 touchdowns, despite entering the NFL as a guy who wasn’t going to catch passes. Klein is absolutely free in drafts. But if he proves to be a good blocker, he could find his way to fantasy-relevant weeks almost by accident.

Bust: David Montgomery, RB

Last year was the first time in Montgomery’s seven-year career that he failed to reach 1,000 scrimmage yards, in fact his first time since his rookie year not to reach 1,100. He also saw a career-low 158 carries, down from 185 in 2024 after never having under 200 before that. Sure, Jahmyr Gibbs took his game to a new level last year and Montgomery had to suffer as a result, but he’s also 28 now and has developed into more of just a plodder — he had 15 explosive runs last year (per FTN Stats & Charting), his fewest in three years with the Lions, and moving from the Detroit offensive line to whatever Houston has put together certainly won’t help that. If Montgomery can’t be counted on to break the occasional explosive run, and if Woody Marks is the receiving back in Houston, and if the Houston line can’t give him much help before the run, what is the appeal of Montgomery as a Texan? I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s losing work to Jawhar Jordan by the end of the year.

Bold Prediction: The Texans Win the AFC South … at 8-9

The Titans are improving, but there’s still plenty of work to do to get them to contender status. The Colts have potential, but with Daniel Jones a mystery both in health and ability, it’s hard to roll with them. I’ve already written why I think the Jaguars will be a third-place team this year. That leaves the Texans to win the AFC South. That feels safe. The problem is … are the Texans that good? To be sure, this team has a very good defense, but we know that defense is less predictable year-over-year than offense. Meanwhile, this offense has pieces (especially Nico Collins), but the potential for another year of a disaster offensive line (our Dan Fornek ranks it as the No. 30 offensive line) could undercut the whole process. Collins is elite. The receivers behind him are good-not-great. The backfield is, as mentioned above, a question mark. So is tight end. Stroud isn’t looking anything like the star he appeared to be in 2023. The Texans should win the AFC South. If pressed, I’d probably predict them to finish 9-8. But “8-9” is such a bolder prediction, so I’m rolling with it. Another losing record takes a division in 2026.