How Carter Yakemchuk Could Take The Senators' Blue Line From Very Good To Elite

The strengths of the Senators can be categorized into three main pillars: 1) their quality of young centre depth; 2) their defensive structure; and 3) the quality of their blue line.

I want to focus on the latter.

When healthy, the Senators have one of the best and deepest blue lines in the league.

That may sound strange, given it is an unconventional group. Their top four doesn't feature big, strapping, physically imposing players that were hallmarks of the game from the 1990s through the 2010s.

The Senators have a modernized group that can skate, close and move the puck efficiently.

“It's the way everybody can skate,” Thomas Chabot explained. “We try to take advantage of that year after year. Obviously it's a fast league, and there's not much time out there. The way everybody can move keeps us from giving the other team time and space to gain our blue line or gain the red line.

“We force teams to have no space, so when they get to the red line, they have to put it behind you, and from there we all have good skills. We can break the puck out, and our forwards play a very good system of coming back low and supporting each other. Ask any top-six forward in the NHL, and they'll never want to dump the puck in.

"They want to come in, make some plays, and create offence off the rush, and that's what we try to eliminate. Anytime you get them to dump the puck in, then it becomes frustrating to play against, and then that's exactly our goal.”

The process certainly worked last season as the Senators finished the season ranked tenth in the league for collective points produced by blue liners (193). The Senators also posted some of the league's best five-on-five defensive metrics, per Natural Stat Trick.

Percentage of shots for (CF%): 52.85, 5th

Percentage of shots on goal (SF%): 54.08, 4th

Percentage of total goals for (GF%): 52.34, 11th

Percentage of expected goals for (xGF%): 54.54, 3rd

Rate of shots allowed (CA/60): 51.85, 3rd

Rate of shots on goal allowed (SA/60): 23.37, 3rd

Rate of expected goals allowed (xGA/60): 2.32, 3rd

The numbers speak for themselves, and the Senators returned their entire blue line, except for Nick Jensen. The group is headlined by Jake Sanderson, one of the best two-way defencemen in the league and a viable Norris Trophy candidate. Artem Zub is one of the best analytical defensive defencemen in the game, and Jordan Spence has taken Jensen’s spot in the top-four alongside the veteran puck-moving Thomas Chabot.

Tyler Kleven and Nik Matinpalo stand in contrast to the rest of the group. Although both skate well, their size creates a different wrinkle: they can assert themselves physically or use their reach advantage to disrupt plays.

Carter Yakemchuk is the wild card.

The high-upside defender was the seventh overall selection in the 2024 NHL Draft, and he has already showcased the offensive aptitude that made him such a desirable pick.

In eight career NHL games, Yakemchuk has contributed two goals and six points, including the game-winner in last night’s 2-1 win over the Philadelphia Flyers.

For a blue line that is already incredibly strong, his development and progress could catapult this group into being the best in the NHL.

Chabot is clearly excited about the Yakemchuk's potential impact as he develops,

“It's unreal,” Chabot said. “If you look at all the teams that win Stanley Cups, if you look at their back end, everybody plays a ton of minutes, and the ice time is spread out.

“Defence wins games. We've seen it through a lot of the times last year when we end up winning games two or three one, and you give up 12 to 15 shots, you make life easier for your goalies. And usually, it means you're not giving up many Grade A scoring chances. The more we can all spread the work and be a really solid back end, it will give ourselves a chance every single night to win.”

Thursday night’s game-winning goal was the perfect example of what Yakemchuk can bring to the table. Although Tyler Kleven, who possessed the hardest recorded in-game shot last season, can bring the heat, nobody else on the Senators poses the threat from the top of the blue line that Yakemchuk does.

And for a power play that tends to pass it around on the outside looking for the perfect bumper play or chances down low, Yakemchuk’s shot can help keep the opposition honest.

Over a small sample size, that success has been there, but the coaching staff has done a phenomenal job insulating Yakemchuk. Although he has averaged 16:10 of ice time through four games this season alongside Tyler Kleven, no player on the Senators has a higher percentage of offensive zone starts (69.70) than the rookie.

That usage is because Yakemchuk, like any young defenceman finding his way in the league, has warts in his defensive game. The hope is that, in time, his experience and maturity will help with his defensive reads, pivots, and gap control.

After an offseason in which he worked hard to improve his fitness and skating, Yakemchuk fulfilled his goal of making the opening roster, but he recognizes there will be ups and downs this season.

Part of that will be finding that delicate balance of recognizing that not every play he makes needs to be a home run.

“Even in Belleville last year, there were times I struggled with (that balance) every shift,” Yakemchuk admitted. “I want to make a difference or make a big play, but I just need to let the game come to me and focus on the defensive side first, and then the offence takes care of itself.”

Chabot emphasized that every young, offensive defenceman has to go through this process.

“That's the biggest learning curve because you come from junior or wherever you are, and you're usually the best players by far on the ice,” he stated. “You get away with more things. Whereas here, you make one little sneaky play that becomes a turnover, and usually ends up in the back of your net because you’re in the NHL.

“It's just learning those things, and I think (Yakemchuk’s) done a hell of a job. (Travis Green) and (Nolan Baumgartner) are there for him too to help him learn, go through those learning curves, and so are we. It’s important to help him out and support him as best we can.”

It is that recognition of responsibility that makes Chabot such an important figure in Yakemchuk’s first year as a regular.

“That's what we got to do as older guys on the team is support him through it,” Chabot acknowledged. “He's done really well, but it's through 84 games of doing the same thing over and over again, and we've all been through it. We know how hard it is to do it the first time.

“The good thing for him is he's got Jake (Sanderson). He has guys in front of him that he doesn't have to go out there and be the only guy to do it. We can all do it as a group and support him. Obviously, I'm 29 years old, and some nights you're gonna have shitty games. That's just life. But you're there for the young guy. You want to support him every night. You want him to be free and go out there and do his thing.”

After the game, Yakemchuk was asked whether he got all of it on his game-winner.

“Yeah, I think so,” he said through a laugh.

The Senators will have to support Yakemchuk throughout the year to ensure that they get all of it - the positive development that could launch an already talented back end to one of the preeminent groups in the NHL.

By Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News Ottawa