Is Cooper Flagg Already A Top-10 Player?

Is Cooper Flagg already a top-10 player at just 19 years old?

This season we've watched Flagg lead Dallas to wins while outplaying Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo, and he handed Houston its first loss behind a 33-point, 9-rebound, 6-assist effort.

In the final 100 seconds on Friday, he made two back-breaking shots that led the Mavericks to an NBA Cup victory:

First, Flagg drained an and-one floater that put Dallas up five points, and later he drove right and spun left into a heavily contested fallaway.

The floater is becoming a bit of a signature shot for Coop. Consider these three moments against Oklahoma City:

Here, the Mavericks run Flagg through a double screen on the left side of the floor, then he drives but is met at the rim by 7-foot-3 rookie center Aday Mara. So Flagg elevates and tosses up a soft floater.

Later on, Flagg brings the ball up himself and once again sees Mara inside so he tosses it up for another bucket.

The next play up the floor, Dallas runs a high pick-and-roll for Flagg with Daniel Gafford screening. Mara sees Flagg coming so he rotates over and contests hard. But that's not a floater — that's a lob to Gafford. The mere threat of a floater creates openings for his teammates, which puts the defensive big man in a dilemma: step up to stop the floater, and the same motion becomes a lob.

Flagg always had the floater in his bag. This year he's just making it more of a threat and he's improved his midrange pull-up. At Duke, Flagg made only 34% of his dribble jumpers from midrange. As a rookie in Dallas, he made 38%. So far this season, he's made 76%. That number is obviously unsustainable, but we'll see where it lands; Flagg has always had excellent touch as an 83% career free-throw shooter. The ability to make late-clock jumpers off the dribble at an efficient clip is the weapon that often separates All-NBA players from All-Stars, and right now Flagg has it.

Flagg still needs to grow in the 3-point department. He made 28% of his catch-and-shoot 3s and 30% of his dribble-jumper 3s as a rookie. Those numbers are pretty comparable so far in his second year. But given his month-to-month rate of improvement, it may only be a matter of time until the 3 is a knockdown shot for him. Maybe it'll even happen by the end of season.

Flagg is complementing that offensive growth with defense that is swinging games.

At 6-foot-10, Flagg is a Swiss Army knife who can defend across positions. You'll see him defend guards, and slide his feet to contain drives, he'll match up against big wings like Kevin Durant, and his coaching staff can feel comfortable with him battling against a true big.

Among the 100 players who have defended the most isolations since Flagg entered the NBA, Flagg ranks 13th in points allowed per play — one spot behind Stephon Castle and two spots behind Chet Holmgren, to put into perspective the company he's among.

And he never stops hustling.

Up 33 on the Pacers and defending Aaron Nesmith, Flagg attempts to steal the ball on the entry to Pascal Siakam before rotating right back over to steal it on the return. This starts a transition basket that ends with Nesmith clearly being a bit frustrated with a hard foul on Flagg that fortunately caused him to miss just a game.

And as good as Flagg is on the ball, he's an even better instinctive and disruptive help defender with quick reflexes to alter shots and swipe at the ball.

Flagg's best two-way sequence of the year came in the clutch against Miami:

With Dallas protecting a two-point lead, Miami pushes the ball up the floor and finds Andrew Wiggins seemingly open in the corner, but Flagg closes out hard, extends his right hand, and gets a fingertip on the shot to cause the airball. Flagg has always hustled like a madman on the floor, but he's also got great athleticism and instincts to actually make plays like this one.

Back up on the other end, Flagg crosses over to create space, drives hard, and gets his body by Wiggins before gathering the ball toward the rim as help arrives from 1-2-3 defenders. But look at his left-handed extension to evade them and preserve a finishing angle through the contest, turning a one-possession game into a four-point lead with 10 seconds left.

The ability to do this in traffic speaks to Flagg's dexterity, coordination, and improvements as a ball-handler. At lower levels, Flagg could always plow through defenders with hard straight-line drives. He has a freight-train finishing ability. But he didn't have great creativity off the bounce and he's progressed there to now use some wiggle and spin moves to get where he wants. On the year, he's making 69% of his layups, which is up from 52% as a rookie.

New Mavericks head coach Dusty May is designing actions to slingshot Flagg toward the basket. Sometimes to score on his own with gliding layups. Other times for kick-out passes to open shooters to take advantage of collapsing defenses. On some occasions, the player on the receiving end has been Kyrie Irving.

Flagg's chemistry is already blossoming with Kyrie. If Flagg is on the ball, Irving provides him an elite catch-and-shoot guy from 3 to target. Or Kyrie can set an inverted screen for him, something we saw Kyrie do for years to great effect alongside LeBron James.

But Irving can also run the show while Flagg moves around off-ball. Flagg has the ability to operate as both a play creator and a play finisher. As great as he's been on-ball this year, he can also set screens, cut with purpose, spot up, and crash the glass. So it's not a huge surprise that he's vibing with Kyrie, a similarly selfless player who can score or playmake. That willingness to give the ball up is part of the reason the Flagg leap is happening this year too.

I've scouted Flagg since he was in high school. The fact he is already this good at just 19 is kind of shocking, to be honest. He wasn't supposed to be doing these things this soon. But it follows a trend. He got way better after turning 18 years old at Duke. Then over the final 26 games of his rookie season, he averaged 25 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists. His surge was highlighted by a 51-point performance that helped him win Rookie of the Year. And so far this year, he's averaging 27/6/7 on elite scoring efficiency, an even better assist-to-turnover ratio and more impactful defense.

What's this production gonna look like by the end of the season when so far he's clearly been one of the league's five-to-10 best players? People will say I am being reactionary, but again: What we're seeing from Flagg right now follows a natural trajectory. It's not like this is me saying Ty Jerome is a top-10 guy because of some out-of-nowhere unstoppable performances. Flagg has been on this path for multiple years now.

So whether you want to say he's a top-five guy, a top-10 guy, or not even top 20 yet because you want to give him more time, what's happening is undeniable. Cooper Flagg has arrived.