Joe Brady Aced Fourth-down Decisions, In-game Management Vs. Texans

Buffalo Bills head coach Joe Brady had a lot on his plate in Week 1.

In his first game as a head coach in the NFL, he had to call the offensive plays, manage the clock, and make critical fourth-down decision on the fly, and he handed everything outstandingly.

Let’s focus on the fourth-down decisions and in-game management here, because we know the 36 points and 7.9 yards per play from his offense were outrageous accomplishments against that Texans defense.

Per Adam Pensel’s DownSetDominance.com, an excellent new analytics site catered toward Bills metrics, Brady went 6-for-6 in fourth-down decisions in Houston in Week 1.

From Pensel’s site: “Every Buffalo Bills fourth down against the nfl4th model: go for it, kick, or punt, judged by win probability.”

Let’s run through all of those decisions, which I must add, seemed to be made without hesitation by Brady in this contest — shout out to his analytics/in-game management team in the booth led by Dennis Lock:

• First quarter, 11:18 left, 4th & 1, at Texans 34 — model suggested go for it, Bills went for it (did not covert)
• First quarter, 7:28 left, 4th & 6, at Texans 28 — model suggested “toss up”, Bills kicked field goal (coverted)
• Third quarter, 9:41 left, 4th & 12, at Bills 33 — model suggested punt, Bills punted
• Third quarter, 4:24 left, 4th & 10, at Texans 16 — model suggested field goal, Bills kicked field goal (converted)
• Fourth quarter, 10:31 left, 4th & 4, at Texans 14 — model suggested field goal, Bills kicked field goal (converted)
• Fourth quarter, 5:45 left, 4th & 12, at Bills 18 — model suggested punt, Bills punted

Now, there weren’t a bevy of challenging fourth-down decisions in this game, but Brady (and his staff) made all the correct decisions. Even when the Bills were called for too many men in the huddle — which you could ding Brady for — on a 4th & 1 midway through the first quarter, the model suggested the Bills go for it, and the offense was on the field before the penalty.

In a league where the margins are incredibly thin, these decisions absolutely matter.

Per Pensel, and referencing the nfl4th model, Brady gave up exactly 0.0 probability points against the Texans in Week 1. That’s huge, particularly in such a tight game.

Sean McDermott gradually improved his fourth-down decisions during his time as Buffalo’s head coach — he began very conservative — but based on the nfl4th model had six contests in which his decisions cost the team 2.0 or more points of win probability last season.

Included in every head-coach interview for the Bills job was an in-game management quiz, and we learned Brady’s score was the best of the all of the candidates.

And he aced his fourth-down decisions in his first game, a contest in which emotions could’ve gotten the best of him, particularly late.

There was this too (thanks ChuckWagon):

Brady also decided to keep the foot on the gas with clock management. The Bills got the ball on their own 17 with 0:18 remaining in the first half — after a three-play, 96-yard touchdown drive on the previous possession — and Allen dropped back to pass on the first play. After it fell incomplete, Brady decided to take the 24-21 lead into halftime yet started the drive looking for more points.

Every single point is at a premium in today’s NFL. Brady’s first game as the Bills head coach — and in-game manager — indicates he’s well aware of that.